Covid-China-19: we will not forget
April 15, 2020It is the efforts made towards China by what is called the global community that allowed the country, over a few decades, to successfully implement its reforms. The normalisation of relations between the US and China, inaugurated in 1979 by President Carter, was in fact the starting point of an open relationship of reformatory…
The consequences of coronavirus for dummies in economics and finance
April 14, 2020Michel Santi, Michel, I have known you for a long time. You are a financier, an economist, an entrepreneur,a visionary. I always thought you were an unconventional and fascinating person. Despite not understanding much, I always felt a different voice in you, as show your eight publications, seven of which on economics and finance,…
Turning the tables after the virus
March 23, 2020Thanks to this crisis, our duty is to rebuild society on a solid basis, as well as making deep reforms to financial markets and getting rid once and for all of their intrinsic ability to cause harm. Because, once again and in quite the same vein, the economic and financial crash that is unfolding…
The testament of a disillusioned economist
March 17, 2020This is my testament. My economic testimony. It’s been 12 years now that I’ve been analysing the crisis. All in all, I’ve been writing about the economy and finance for thirty years. However, it’s from 2007 that I’ve been trying tirelessly, through my books and my articles, to denounce what has come to be…
Oil: what a brutal world!
March 9, 2020We are living in turbulent times and our world can attest, since a few days ago, to the equivalent of a declaration of war taking place on the oil market. Saudi Arabia, that is suffering a fall of more than 20% of its exports to China (its biggest client) due to the coronavirus epidemic,…
We, the barbarians
March 2, 2020Economic science is up for the chop, and the profession has been put on the defensive. Those who imposed austerity during the last great crisis called on what they thought made up the fundamentals of the economy. The rare ones who rejected this stringency pleaded, for their part, for action in this discipline that…
The Saudi/US pact: reflection of a vulnerable America
February 17, 2020The US is made a distant comeback. Its dollar was, at the start of the 1970s, in a precarious situation due to the exorbitant cost of the Vietnam war and the various social programmes whose combined effects meant the country could no longer maintain the parity with gold that was established in 1944 at…
Keynes to the rescue for Lebanon
February 7, 2020When all is said and done, bankruptcy is nothing more than an accounting phenomenon, and growth is a matter of confidence. Otherwise, why would the Bank of Japan be the sole proprietor of half of its national bond market and why are its holdings in bonds and shares in the country reaching 100% of…
Brexit: the irreversible decline of a proud nation
January 31, 2020This 31st January 2020 will be known for a rolling back of freedoms, as Brexit tells above all the story of closure, a victory – not by KO but on points – for the partisans of a Great Britain that is revising its ambitions considerably downwards. Without it, the European Union will still count…
This Japan that won’t stop surprising us
January 24, 2020Japan has been able to face up to its destiny, and even to force it. It has handled perfectly one of the essential components of economic growth, that being demographics. In fact, the number of people on the payroll has increased there these last ten years, much more than in any other developed economy.…
Sanctions are testaments of American supremacy
January 14, 2020Contrary to popular belief, it’s not the weapon of the dollar that makes US sanctions against a country inescapable. The Greenback is of course the reserve currency par excellence on the global scale and naturally accounts for the American hegemony. However, doing business in another currency – for the many companies and nations under…
Germany is drowning in its ordoliberalism
December 31, 2019Do the Germans, who in their overwhelming majority are staunchly opposed to what they call the “Haftungsunion”, also known as transfer union implying that their country pays too much money into Europe, live in a parallel universe? Might the Germans have become populist in that they don’t hesitate to dig up a specious, fallacious, facile…
If only we were all Japanese!
December 12, 2019The economists and bankers of my generation have had the habit of entertaining themselves by dividing the world into four types of economies: developed, emerging, Argentina and Japan. It is worth, however, updating this somewhat simplistic and caricatural joke by removing Japan from the list of economic aberrations. Albeit highly unlikely, the Japanese property…
The Gospel according to Saint Money
November 30, 2019It’s a history condemned to repeat itself forever because, since the dawn of time, the enrichment of some has basically always been to the detriment of others. Inequality has often been described by the upper class as an inevitable side effect, systemic almost, of the prosperity and innovation that is however meant to benefit…
Lebanon: a new race of leaders
November 20, 2019To understand the events in Lebanon that have taken place over the last month, it is vital to have an idea of the country’s debt structure. In other words: the analysis of Lebanon’s public and private debt allows us to better understand this socioeconomic crisis. In fact, Lebanon is renowned for distinguishing itself…
Work is a perished good
November 13, 2019Full time work for a fixed salary has only existed for around a hundred years, and still not for everyone, as women were deprived of it for a good while, including during the happy times of full employment in the second half of last century. Today, deregulation, outsourcing and automation are all synonymous with…
Negative rates: an economic curse?
November 6, 2019Companies that don’t pay interests on their debt are a like these students who never sit an exam: they somehow scrape by without any notable successes or accomplishments. The current level of rates should be encouraging investment because companies’ margins are much higher than the cost of capital, that is itself negligible. Even the…
Economists: can we trust them?
October 28, 2019Chile is the only Latin American country that is a member of the OECD, and not long ago it was still being cited as an example to follow because of its success and economic recovery. It is, however, just the latest victim to date of a neoliberalism whose ravages have now become universal. Chile’s fall…
Inflation of prices, deflation of policies
October 10, 2019So you think you understand inflation? Allow me to correct you because it is in no way the result of an unreasonable expansion of the money supply that translates into a rise in prices. This clichéd term of “inflation”, used unscrupulously by the detractors of central banks, by the prophets of misfortune whose commercial stock…
Lebanon: how can it avoid self-destruction?
October 1, 2019I just got back from Lebanon, a country that I know well and where I was born, where the atmosphere is now as palpable as it was during the dark days of the civil war. Admittedly, it’s not the armed conflicts that threaten, though this nation remains a hostage – often consentingly – to…
The economic deficiencies of our political leaders
September 17, 2019The “Japanisation” of our Western economies that I have been talking about and describing for years has now reached its climax with the world’s two most influential central banks – the ECB and the Fed – getting (back) out the heavy artillery in the hope of putting more pressure on their interest rates. The heated…
The People against the Economists
September 9, 2019In his time, Franklin Delano Roosevelt dismissed John Maynard Keynes, one of the most influential and brilliant economists of the 20th century, who was labelled an “unorthodox mathematician” by this president. In his farewell address, Eisenhower had warned his citizens against the technocrats in power, the same who were recently described by Emmanuel Macron…
Compliance, Banks in a changing world
September 3, 2019The rise to power of compliance departments in banks can be explained by the fines imposed by regulators and Western, mainly American, judiciaries. After the 9/11 attacks, after the “Patriot Act”, and after the US sanctions on Iran, Russia, certain Mexican agents and anyone who the US unilaterally and in an instant decries as…
Italy: how to decimate a country in less than 20 years
July 26, 2019In 1960, Italy’s GDP was 15% smaller than France’s, and 27% lower than the average of Germany, the Netherlands, Belgium and France’s combined. However, this country enjoyed steady growth until the start of the 1990s as Italian household income caught up with the period’s norm for the other eurozone nations, so much so that…
Central banker: extinction of the species
July 9, 2019“Of course our central bank is independent”, the Turkish President, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, pretty much just declared, just before dismissing by presidential decree (on 7th July) the boss of Turkey’s central bank, Murat Cetinkaya, stating that “a central bank cannot ignore the signals sent by the President”. It was in the last century and…
Have populists become conservatives ?
June 29, 2019There was a time when “populism” was synonymous with governmental financial mismanagement and irresponsibility. Far exceeding budget constraints, the leaders of these groups and realms of thought would empty the public treasury, use up reserves and bring about monetary crises, inflation, capital outflows, recession and even payment defaults. In short, the reigning populists’ disdain…
Finance: at the heart of the climate emergency
June 18, 2019The UK is hoping to achieve climate neutrality by 2050. However, one of the important drivers that will help overcome the greatest challenge of our time – climate change – is outside governmental control. A nation cannot claim to be substantially reducing its greenhouse emissions without first regulating the flow of liquidity channelled towards…
The Monetary Theory (MMT) that has nothing Modern about it
June 11, 2019I’ve been writing it since 2010. I’ve released several books and hundreds of articles meticulously defending the position. Sovereign States – that being those who issue their own currency independently of any indexation – should learn to love, or at the very least live with, their public deficits. Because a nation that controls its…
China is quietly quaking in its boots
June 5, 2019Is China on the brink of a crisis similar to the one suffered last year by Argentina, due to a defective balance of payments? In such a situation, China would see itself short on dollars, unable to support its own currency! As for many other sovereign nations, the Yuan is built on its country’s…
Back to the deutschemark ?
May 28, 2019Martin Feldstein, a Harvard economist, wrote premonitorily in 1997 that the euro’s introduction “would exacerbate economic cycles by worsening unemployment in certain member states. Such economic woes would contribute to a crisis of confidence in the Union”. In fact, those who were convinced that the Union’s crisis since 2009 would only be a one-off…
The trade war won’t happen!
May 21, 2019China is not a bellicose nation. For it, war is a matter of developing excessive trading relationships. Put another way, for China,the defence of its economic interests is an extension of war. As for its nuclear option in the context of this trade war with the USA, it would be to shed itself of…
Europe’s disgust
May 15, 2019Brexit could have been a simple divorce between the UK and Europe, but the mounting tension between the British Parliament and the European Union is about to turn this separation into a much more deeply profound event. This is because Brexit won’t just have major geopolitical ramifications in modern history. In fact, after France’s…
The zombies of capitalism
May 9, 2019The policy of zero interest rates was crucial in avoiding total financial collapse following the subprime crisis, the credit crunch, and Europe’s sovereign debt psychodrama, just as it will play a major role over the next few episodes of stock market crashes and exacerbated volatility that hurts the real economy. On the other side of…
A major challenge of our time
April 21, 2019Where has inflation gone? While the US enjoys one of its longest periods of economic expansion, and while it is pretty much at full employment with its best figures for fifty years, inflation is nevertheless miniscule. Will it one day make its return to our developed nations of integrated economies?
The Rome syndrome
April 11, 2019The Italians were, for centuries, Europe’s bankers. The Medici’s, for their part, lent extensively to the British and French crowns. Let us not forgetthe marriage – of convenience – between Henry IV and Marie de Medicis, who was also known as “the fat banker’s daughter”. What happened in the second half of the 20th…
Gold, Conservatives and Conspiracy Theory
April 2, 2019Stephen Moore, who was appointed by Donald Trump to the board of governors of the US Federal Reserve, is one of those who sees gold as the ultimate refuge. He has just stated that yellow metal prices are expected to rise to $ 2,000 an ounce and that any prudent investor should maintain a…
Brexit is a chance for Europe
March 26, 2019The chaos that’s shaking Britain to its core has come a long distance. The constitutional crisis, the 2 million protesters in the streets of London on Saturday 23rd March, the likely fall of Theresa May this week, and even the 2016 referendum itself are merely the culmination of more than 40 years of turbulence between…
Debt, money, sin
March 20, 2019The word for ‘debt’ in German – to owe money – is ‘Schuld’, and it also means ‘sin’ in this language. This dual meaning also existed in Akkadian in Babylon. In fact, it’s a Babylonian sovereign, Hammurabi, who in 1792 BC was the first to set up a veritable system of debt-renouncement that entailed…
To cleanse Europe, dismantle the Stability Pact!
March 12, 2019Europe’s not out of danger yet. A meltdown is still on the cards due to the eurozone members’ lack of any control over their interest rates and currency. In fact, in these conditions, how can diverse national economies using the euro not diverge? And what would be the instrument that could harmonise consumption and economic…
The future of Europe is going through a rehabilitation of its experts
March 4, 2019Growth since 2009: China +139%, India +96%, the US +34%, Europe –2%. These figures tell the story of the European Union’s spiralling macroeconomic decline. The lack of reactivity of our public policies, in the aftermath of the financial crisis, led to a reduction in imports, with the most hard-hit eurozone countries seeing their balance of…
German ordoliberalism versus French Etatism
February 20, 2019If a referendum was to be organised in France off the back of a widescale national debate, and if President Macron really wanted to bring the country closer to a politics that clearly favoured growth and therefore buying power, the vote would have to centre around EU regulations on public deficits and on changing the…
What the Ghosn affair tells us about Japan’s judicial system
January 28, 2019It was a mere fifty days that Carlos Ghosn had been detained, starting 19th November 2018, when he was finally allowed to appear – at his request! – before the Court in Tokyo on 8th January 2019, chained to a policeman by the waist and wearing green plastic sandals. Eight weeks had to pass for…
BOB = Bored of Brexit
January 22, 2019As“Brexit fatigue”takes hold of us, let’s look back over the terminology relating to it. While “soft Brexit” means the UK staying in the single market according to the “Norway model”, “hard Brexit” means exiting the EU with no agreement in place but then signing a trade deal, known as the “Canada model”. However, it’s only…
Would the West accept being saved by Islamic finance?
January 19, 2019The Nobel prize winner for economics, Eugene Fama, born in 1939 and one of the fathers of monetarism and the neoliberal ideology, is known for having pre-emptively asserted that “the idea of efficient markets is a simple assertion that states that the prices of securities and assets reflect all the information known”. It is in…
The US: a rate cut to come ?
January 5, 2019The US Federal Reserve, as we know, is in the process of “normalising” its monetary policy stance. That means it’s committed to gradually raising its guideline rates, after the extreme efforts during the finance crisis that led to quantitative easing. After increasing its rates four times in 2018, it has just announced two or three…
Brexit is populist – and farewell 2018!
December 21, 20182018 wasn’t a vintage year. In fact, I’d be more tempted to call it a year of gloom and doom. Trade wars, stalling stock markets, extreme oil price volatility, geopolitical tensions, con games in the Middle East, and serious questions about Macron’s presidency that had brought some much hope are only a few examples of…
Saudi Arabia is no longer ‘too big to fail’
December 5, 2018Is Saudi Arabia still an important partner to the US? The question answers itself, at least partially, with the Middle East having drastically changed since the strategic and fundamental alliance made in 1943 by President Franklin Roosevelt and King Abdulaziz Ibn Saud. It’s now a distant time when FDR boldly, vociferously claimed that “the defence…
The cabal against Carlos Ghosn
November 21, 2018Carlos Ghosn’s deposition? This is in no way a legal matter, and even less so a penal one: it’s rather a palatial revolution. Nissan is profiting from crime, mainly its CEO Hiroto Saikawa, who struggled to hide his joy at dethroning Ghosn after nineteen years of sole reign over not just the companies that he…
USA 0 China 1
November 19, 2018China is about to win the first leg of the trade war against the US. The latest statistics are actually shocking for the US Government, with the trade deficit with China at its highest historical level. These figures – that show a Chinese surplus of more than 37 billion dollars for the month of September,…