China : the next silent Black Swan ?
August 27, 2025Trade between the U.S. and China has collapsed to its lowest point in nearly 20 years. Imports from China just hit a 19-year low, and U.S. exports to China are sliding too. Tariffs, decoupling, and weaker demand are crushing the flow of goods. You are cordially invited to visit me at the Monaco…
The countdown has begun
April 27, 2025In just a few weeks, the White House and the United States have gotten themselves into a situation from which they will have the greatest difficulty escaping. Starting on April 10, trade between the U.S. and China progressively — but irresistibly — came to a halt. Cargo bookings, in fact, collapsed in the wake of…
Flip-flop policy
April 13, 2025Trump has just lowered tariffs on smartphones, computers, and electronic devices imported from China. Every day, the White House backtracks, revises downward, cancels… In such conditions, where can one find the motivation to set up a factory and bring industrial jobs back to the United States? Tariffs are not a policy, but a tool…
April 9th., 2025
April 9, 2025In response to the United States, China is increasing its tariffs from 34% to 84%. It is not yielding to pressure. Globalization officially ends today.
China is at war
September 19, 2024This year, it is exporting 6 million cars to around one hundred countries. As the world’s leading vehicle exporter, its average price is $19,000, lower than that of the United States and Europe. Meanwhile, its Western competitors have no strategy, are swimming in confusion, and are overwhelmed by China’s offensive.
When the United States Awakens…
September 5, 2024Xi has just committed to supporting 33 African countries with $50 billion over the next 3 years. This historic event is noteworthy for its rarity: the American superpower is allowing itself to weaken and remains passive while China is actively strengthening its influence in Africa. China now holds a dominant position on the continent.…
Japanification of China
August 29, 2024Extended periods of deflation, economic stagnation, a declining real estate market, financial pressure and stress impacting households, businesses, and the state. All signals suggesting credible parallels between today’s China and Japan in the 1990s. China risks becoming an aging and heavily indebted country before it becomes a wealthy nation. The Japanese population only…
The beginning of the end, or the end of the beginning?
May 29, 2024A trade deficit must be offset by financial inflows to maintain a minimum level of equilibrium. The United States runs a significant and constant trade deficit, which they manage to finance through the sale of Treasury bonds, bought by China and other governments/central banks. The deal is as follows and is an integral part of…
When China Gives in…
May 9, 2024China is on life support: 18 units of credit in China only equate to 1 unit of GDP growth. A cornerstone of household wealth at 65% of their assets, the country’s real estate sector, along with indebted regional governments to the tune of $9 trillion (over half the national GDP), are faltering. Authorities…
China/USA: a separation of bodies
April 26, 2024China’s holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds are at their lowest level in 15 years, while its gold reserves have reached a record high. These are all signals indicating a desire to decouple its economy from that of the United States as quickly as possible.
China: Revolt of the Party’s Elderly Leaders ?
September 7, 2023In Beijing, it’s the revolt of the elderly! Those who have led the Communist Party, these former leaders who presided over and orchestrated China’s rise to power until Xi’s accession, are now demanding accountability. It has recently come to light that they gathered in late August in the Hebei Province, specifically in the coastal city…
China: a shadow of itself
August 27, 2023China has become one of the most expensive countries in the world to raise and support a family. The collapse of consumption and overall living standards is wreaking havoc among young Chinese couples, who now have little motivation to start a family. Chinese fertility is declining rapidly despite the pro-natalist policy adopted by the government…
Europe: a sleeping beauty
April 24, 2023How not to be shocked by the near-economic disappearance of Europe? The “acceleration of the European economy” mentioned by Emmanuel Macron in China this April is a tale that no longer comforts or deceives anyone. Readers: your first electric car will most likely be Chinese, as China has now surpassed Germany as the world’s second-largest…
This China which now exports inflation !
January 18, 2023While it has been THE fundamental source of deflation for the past 20 years, China will now export inflation. This country locked up for 2 years nearly 19% of the universal population that were prevented from consuming. This 1.4 billion individual now liberated will rush to buy, go out, live… with the global inflationary…
The EV, symbol of a shift in world power?
January 16, 2023Sales of electric cars are exploding on a global scale. Last year saw an increase of 60% compared to 2021 with nearly 11 million vehicles put into circulation. It’s simple: EV now account for 13.2% of all global sales, having thus tripled in 2 years since 2020. Germany, Great Britain, France and China are…
Governance Quo Vadis ?
December 29, 2022In China, for 3 years now the propagandist machine has been calling the West a liar and incompetent in the face of its management of Covid, literally demonizing Western vaccines described as counterproductive. You have to understand why China has opened up suddenly in recent days by removing all coercive health measures. It was…
Is China still credible ?
November 28, 2022Even better than Mao, surpassing Lenin, Xi Jinping methodically is building a cult around himself over the years. Often preaching with mysticism, surrounded by unconditional Marxist doctrines, he benefits from the aura of the master that China never ceased to glorify since the end of the 1970s. Describing Marx as the ” Greatest thinker…
Interwinded
November 21, 2022China-USA: their respective inflation is moving in phase as this graph clearly shows. These two countries are therefore interdependent, despite their political postures.
Demographic regression
November 13, 2022The abolition of the one-child policy in China was not followed by a boom in the birth rate. Quite the contrary, in fact, because this graph shows that this country is close to demographic regression which will be its misfortune in the decades to come, and which will force it to drastically review its…
The Chinese Mess
October 23, 2022No one dares to claim anymore that China will soon become the world’s largest economy. From Goldman Sachs which announced fifteen years ago that it would be number 1 in 2026, to Nomura which predicted it for 2028, to JP Morgan which saw it by 2031… The question with the experts was not so…
China: a disaster in the making
April 24, 2022China’s population will have been split in two by the end of this century. The reputable British scientific journal The Lancet foresees the number of Chinese people collapsing to 730 million, dropping from 1.4 billion today. Thanks to the Covid crisis, China’s birth rate has fallen by 30% in the last two years, which is…
China: financial victory without military intervention
March 22, 2022China’s currency just overtook the once almighty yen. SWIFT, the international payment system, must now use the yuan that has become the 4th biggest currency after the dollar, the euro and the Swiss franc. Long considered to be speculative, the “renminbi” seems to be undergoing a full transformation, with such volumes of transactions making it…
Where is China though?
March 6, 2022China has been deeply shocked by the butchery that the Russian economy has suffered. The leaders of China – at every level – are terrified to fall victim to such strangulation. The West has steadfastly realised that its almighty power of globalisation is – by all accounts – a weapon that it alone wields.…
For China, good news are bad news
January 30, 2022China’s trade surpluses are beating all their historic records. Despite the stagnation of its national consumption, China is racking up trade surpluses in the way of 94 billion dollars per month. This good news is however not so good because the strong correlation between a nation’s trade balance and its overall consumption. These enormous…
China is folding under the weight of its own contradictions
January 3, 2022The gap between the US and China remains wide, with China’s GDP still at only 70% of America’s. Evidently, China’s economic progress has been spectacular, and in this light the 14 trillion dollars that make up China’s aggregate product is nothing short of a miracle compared to the state it was in just 20…
China trapped by capitalism
October 28, 2021China has thus far functioned by building 15 million homes a year, which is 5 times more than the US and Europe combined. After the collapse of the 300 billion dollar Evergrande, the biggest real estate company in China, the issue – albeit not a recent one – of the country’s ghost towns has…
Colonizing by Lending
October 14, 2021Colonisation is no longer what it once was. Actually, it just doesn’t use the same means anymore. Nowadays, to colonise, you lend, and that’s how you enslave. Over history, the debtor’s inability to pay has been used as an excuse to engage armies, like the British invasion of Egypt in 1882 because the country…
The Chinese Imperium against Honor of Kings
October 1, 2021There are 100 million young Chinese people playing Honor of Kings every day, the most popular and profitable online video game in the world that rakes in 7 billion dollars a year for its developers. Basically under the thumb of the virtual world, Chinese civil society is beginning to cause great headaches for its leaders…
China infected by financial capitalism
September 20, 2021The weight of the real estate industry has now become significant in the Chinese economy. Whereas it made up 5% of GDP in 1995, it is now one of the country’s main growth drivers, coming to more than 30% of economic activity. It is more or less at the same level as the real…
China at war with spiritual opium!
September 14, 2021China has declared war. Against its own technology companies. Since last February, the capitalisations of jewels such as Tencent, Alibaba, Kuaishou Technology and Meituan have lost billions of dollars. The stock index Hang Seng Tech that figures the biggest technology companies in the country has collapsed by 45%. The big business leaders have been…
Why nations prosper
June 19, 2021Demographics are an indicator of the long-term destiny of a nation, and at the same time demonstrate the current mood of its citizens. Having abolished the only-child regime in 2016 to encourage families to have a second, China now even implicitly tolerates a third child across certain regions in need of population growth.…
China vs. USA: the lethal weapon
May 3, 2021The Chinese are convinced that the United States are a declining power, and they are basing – as a consequence – all their actions on this prediction. This is why China now feels that it is strong enough to take on a hitherto impregnable and unchallenged stronghold, that being America’s currency and the exorbitant…
Covid-China-19: we will not forget
April 15, 2020It is the efforts made towards China by what is called the global community that allowed the country, over a few decades, to successfully implement its reforms. The normalisation of relations between the US and China, inaugurated in 1979 by President Carter, was in fact the starting point of an open relationship of reformatory…
Trade war, or American self-sabotage?
September 26, 2018Donald Trump is actively preparing phase 3 of his retaliation plan against China now that the latter has just reacted to his last wave that came into force this week. According to his own statements summarising his approach to China, he began by imposing an extra tax of 50 billion dollars on the country for…
China will have to go bankrupt to survive!
September 6, 2015The severe damage that China is currently suffering is not necessarily what it may appear to be. It’s actually these “zombie” companies that are degrading the economic fabric of the nation; they are the failing businesses that the Chinese government is nevertheless keeping alive on artificial respirators. The easy money and low prices which have…