“We must accept finite disappointment, but must never lose infinite hope.” – Martin Luther King Jr.
Do the Germans, who in their overwhelming majority are staunchly opposed to what they call the “Haftungsunion”, also known as transfer union implying that their country pays too much money into Europe, live in a parallel universe? Might the Germans have become populist in that they don’t hesitate to dig up a specious, fallacious, facile…
The economists and bankers of my generation have had the habit of entertaining themselves by dividing the world into four types of economies: developed, emerging, Argentina and Japan. It is worth, however, updating this somewhat simplistic and caricatural joke by removing Japan from the list of economic aberrations. Albeit highly unlikely, the Japanese property…
It’s a history condemned to repeat itself forever because, since the dawn of time, the enrichment of some has basically always been to the detriment of others. Inequality has often been described by the upper class as an inevitable side effect, systemic almost, of the prosperity and innovation that is however meant to benefit…
To understand the events in Lebanon that have taken place over the last month, it is vital to have an idea of the country’s debt structure. In other words: the analysis of Lebanon’s public and private debt allows us to better understand this socioeconomic crisis. In fact, Lebanon is renowned for distinguishing itself…
Full time work for a fixed salary has only existed for around a hundred years, and still not for everyone, as women were deprived of it for a good while, including during the happy times of full employment in the second half of last century. Today, deregulation, outsourcing and automation are all synonymous with…
Companies that don’t pay interests on their debt are a like these students who never sit an exam: they somehow scrape by without any notable successes or accomplishments. The current level of rates should be encouraging investment because companies’ margins are much higher than the cost of capital, that is itself negligible. Even the…
Chile is the only Latin American country that is a member of the OECD, and not long ago it was still being cited as an example to follow because of its success and economic recovery. It is, however, just the latest victim to date of a neoliberalism whose ravages have now become universal. Chile’s fall…
So you think you understand inflation? Allow me to correct you because it is in no way the result of an unreasonable expansion of the money supply that translates into a rise in prices. This clichéd term of “inflation”, used unscrupulously by the detractors of central banks, by the prophets of misfortune whose commercial stock…
I just got back from Lebanon, a country that I know well and where I was born, where the atmosphere is now as palpable as it was during the dark days of the civil war. Admittedly, it’s not the armed conflicts that threaten, though this nation remains a hostage – often consentingly – to…
The “Japanisation” of our Western economies that I have been talking about and describing for years has now reached its climax with the world’s two most influential central banks – the ECB and the Fed – getting (back) out the heavy artillery in the hope of putting more pressure on their interest rates. The heated…
In his time, Franklin Delano Roosevelt dismissed John Maynard Keynes, one of the most influential and brilliant economists of the 20th century, who was labelled an “unorthodox mathematician” by this president. In his farewell address, Eisenhower had warned his citizens against the technocrats in power, the same who were recently described by Emmanuel Macron…
The rise to power of compliance departments in banks can be explained by the fines imposed by regulators and Western, mainly American, judiciaries. After the 9/11 attacks, after the “Patriot Act”, and after the US sanctions on Iran, Russia, certain Mexican agents and anyone who the US unilaterally and in an instant decries as…
In 1960, Italy’s GDP was 15% smaller than France’s, and 27% lower than the average of Germany, the Netherlands, Belgium and France’s combined. However, this country enjoyed steady growth until the start of the 1990s as Italian household income caught up with the period’s norm for the other eurozone nations, so much so that…
“Of course our central bank is independent”, the Turkish President, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, pretty much just declared, just before dismissing by presidential decree (on 7th July) the boss of Turkey’s central bank, Murat Cetinkaya, stating that “a central bank cannot ignore the signals sent by the President”. It was in the last century and…
There was a time when “populism” was synonymous with governmental financial mismanagement and irresponsibility. Far exceeding budget constraints, the leaders of these groups and realms of thought would empty the public treasury, use up reserves and bring about monetary crises, inflation, capital outflows, recession and even payment defaults. In short, the reigning populists’ disdain…
The UK is hoping to achieve climate neutrality by 2050. However, one of the important drivers that will help overcome the greatest challenge of our time – climate change – is outside governmental control. A nation cannot claim to be substantially reducing its greenhouse emissions without first regulating the flow of liquidity channelled towards…
I’ve been writing it since 2010. I’ve released several books and hundreds of articles meticulously defending the position. Sovereign States – that being those who issue their own currency independently of any indexation – should learn to love, or at the very least live with, their public deficits. Because a nation that controls its…
Is China on the brink of a crisis similar to the one suffered last year by Argentina, due to a defective balance of payments? In such a situation, China would see itself short on dollars, unable to support its own currency! As for many other sovereign nations, the Yuan is built on its country’s…
Martin Feldstein, a Harvard economist, wrote premonitorily in 1997 that the euro’s introduction “would exacerbate economic cycles by worsening unemployment in certain member states. Such economic woes would contribute to a crisis of confidence in the Union”. In fact, those who were convinced that the Union’s crisis since 2009 would only be a one-off…
China is not a bellicose nation. For it, war is a matter of developing excessive trading relationships. Put another way, for China,the defence of its economic interests is an extension of war. As for its nuclear option in the context of this trade war with the USA, it would be to shed itself of…
Brexit could have been a simple divorce between the UK and Europe, but the mounting tension between the British Parliament and the European Union is about to turn this separation into a much more deeply profound event. This is because Brexit won’t just have major geopolitical ramifications in modern history. In fact, after France’s…
The policy of zero interest rates was crucial in avoiding total financial collapse following the subprime crisis, the credit crunch, and Europe’s sovereign debt psychodrama, just as it will play a major role over the next few episodes of stock market crashes and exacerbated volatility that hurts the real economy. On the other side of…
Where has inflation gone? While the US enjoys one of its longest periods of economic expansion, and while it is pretty much at full employment with its best figures for fifty years, inflation is nevertheless miniscule. Will it one day make its return to our developed nations of integrated economies?
The Italians were, for centuries, Europe’s bankers. The Medici’s, for their part, lent extensively to the British and French crowns. Let us not forgetthe marriage – of convenience – between Henry IV and Marie de Medicis, who was also known as “the fat banker’s daughter”. What happened in the second half of the 20th…
Stephen Moore, who was appointed by Donald Trump to the board of governors of the US Federal Reserve, is one of those who sees gold as the ultimate refuge. He has just stated that yellow metal prices are expected to rise to $ 2,000 an ounce and that any prudent investor should maintain a…
The chaos that’s shaking Britain to its core has come a long distance. The constitutional crisis, the 2 million protesters in the streets of London on Saturday 23rd March, the likely fall of Theresa May this week, and even the 2016 referendum itself are merely the culmination of more than 40 years of turbulence between…
The word for ‘debt’ in German – to owe money – is ‘Schuld’, and it also means ‘sin’ in this language. This dual meaning also existed in Akkadian in Babylon. In fact, it’s a Babylonian sovereign, Hammurabi, who in 1792 BC was the first to set up a veritable system of debt-renouncement that entailed…
Europe’s not out of danger yet. A meltdown is still on the cards due to the eurozone members’ lack of any control over their interest rates and currency. In fact, in these conditions, how can diverse national economies using the euro not diverge? And what would be the instrument that could harmonise consumption and economic…
Growth since 2009: China +139%, India +96%, the US +34%, Europe –2%. These figures tell the story of the European Union’s spiralling macroeconomic decline. The lack of reactivity of our public policies, in the aftermath of the financial crisis, led to a reduction in imports, with the most hard-hit eurozone countries seeing their balance of…
If a referendum was to be organised in France off the back of a widescale national debate, and if President Macron really wanted to bring the country closer to a politics that clearly favoured growth and therefore buying power, the vote would have to centre around EU regulations on public deficits and on changing the…
It was a mere fifty days that Carlos Ghosn had been detained, starting 19th November 2018, when he was finally allowed to appear – at his request! – before the Court in Tokyo on 8th January 2019, chained to a policeman by the waist and wearing green plastic sandals. Eight weeks had to pass for…
As“Brexit fatigue”takes hold of us, let’s look back over the terminology relating to it. While “soft Brexit” means the UK staying in the single market according to the “Norway model”, “hard Brexit” means exiting the EU with no agreement in place but then signing a trade deal, known as the “Canada model”. However, it’s only…
The Nobel prize winner for economics, Eugene Fama, born in 1939 and one of the fathers of monetarism and the neoliberal ideology, is known for having pre-emptively asserted that “the idea of efficient markets is a simple assertion that states that the prices of securities and assets reflect all the information known”. It is in…
The US Federal Reserve, as we know, is in the process of “normalising” its monetary policy stance. That means it’s committed to gradually raising its guideline rates, after the extreme efforts during the finance crisis that led to quantitative easing. After increasing its rates four times in 2018, it has just announced two or three…
2018 wasn’t a vintage year. In fact, I’d be more tempted to call it a year of gloom and doom. Trade wars, stalling stock markets, extreme oil price volatility, geopolitical tensions, con games in the Middle East, and serious questions about Macron’s presidency that had brought some much hope are only a few examples of…
Is Saudi Arabia still an important partner to the US? The question answers itself, at least partially, with the Middle East having drastically changed since the strategic and fundamental alliance made in 1943 by President Franklin Roosevelt and King Abdulaziz Ibn Saud. It’s now a distant time when FDR boldly, vociferously claimed that “the defence…
Carlos Ghosn’s deposition? This is in no way a legal matter, and even less so a penal one: it’s rather a palatial revolution. Nissan is profiting from crime, mainly its CEO Hiroto Saikawa, who struggled to hide his joy at dethroning Ghosn after nineteen years of sole reign over not just the companies that he…
China is about to win the first leg of the trade war against the US. The latest statistics are actually shocking for the US Government, with the trade deficit with China at its highest historical level. These figures – that show a Chinese surplus of more than 37 billion dollars for the month of September,…
The dollar has been an integral part of America’s foreign policy for decades. Much more than the currency of reference for global trade, greatly surpassing the privileged status of reserve currency for the central banks, the Greenback is the supreme arbiter. With the simple press of a button, the US can refuse access for any…
How could we not recall the British cult TV series from the ‘60s, The Prisoner, where a giant bubble frantically pursued the hero played by Patrick McGoohan? Our world now finds itself in a similar situation: we are all hostages to the now-plentiful bubbles, and not only the speculative bubbles that infect our markets. It’s…
“When the facts change, I change my mind”: this was one of Keynes’s maxims that became an established way of thinking. What would his attitude to Brexit have been? For or against it, he would nonetheless have been part of the negotiations to try and extract the best agreement possible, despite the strongly unfavourable conditions…
Why get worried about exaggerations – aberrations even – over current stock market prices when the American index of reference, the S&P 500, is only showing drops in the way of 1%? While US public debt is reaching astronomical heights of nearly 22 trillion dollars and while companies listed on this S&P 500 index have…
Employment is not an end in itself. It just allows us to subsist. This is why it’s productive jobs we need today: ones that will allow us to consume goods and services produced with minimal human labour or effort involved. In my opinion, economic development and prosperity should above all tend to gradually reduce the…
Donald Trump is actively preparing phase 3 of his retaliation plan against China now that the latter has just reacted to his last wave that came into force this week. According to his own statements summarising his approach to China, he began by imposing an extra tax of 50 billion dollars on the country for…
Wealth and income distribution have become grotesque in our Western nations. Collusion between political and economic powers has now become obvious, and it is of public notoriety that employment is nothing more than an adjustable variable in today’s capitalism. The tacit and consensual agreement on which our prosperity has been built thus far is crumbling…
Has the Iranian rial lost more than half of its value against the dollar since the start of this year? It’s routine for this country’s economy that has seen this same thing other times as, since the end of the Iraq war, each Iranian president has effectively been faced with a monetary crisis. From 1989…
The Saudis’ decision to suspend indefinitely the sensationally announced sale of 5% of the national oil company, Aramco, has called the credibility of the Prince, Mohammed bin Salman, directly into question. The offering of this giant on the stock market was in fact the cornerstone of the Prince’s politics, hoping to diversify his Kingdom’s…
Since last January, interest rate hikes have accelerated throughout the world. It’s simple: we might have returned to the pre-Lehman average rate level, according to a Bank of America Merrill Lynch study! It’s not surprising that, in such a situation, global cash is drying up internationally since it goes without saying that such a tightening…
Milton Friedman maintained the theory that unfettered free trade would generate – in the long term – a wealth that would trickle down over everyone. Contrary to the ideas made out, the liberalisation of trade (which goes hand in hand with the free circulation of capital) is not the only reason for the world’s dramatic…
