Debt has seized power
August 16, 2026The United States is now borrowing at ultra-long maturities at interest rates that have reached their highest level in twenty years. And yet the economy is slowing and inflation is easing—conditions that would normally drive interest rates sharply lower. But that is not happening, because: markets are no longer focused on the economic cycle.…
It would be very unwise to pretend that nothing is happening
December 7, 2025It would be very unwise to pretend that nothing is happening with government bond yields around the world! Japan’s 30-year yield is at 3.37%, a historic record for the country… and a clear warning of what awaits Western nations that allow their debt levels to spiral. The chart below speaks for itself: yields on the…
🪙 Gold: The Barometer of Distrust
October 19, 2025He does not promise wealth, but safety. He does not guarantee prosperity, but survival. Gold, whose ounce was flirting with $2,000 as recently as March 2024, is now on the verge of crossing the $4,400 mark. Up more than 55% over one year, and 16% this month alone, its acceleration is spectacular. Perfectly proportional to…
Perfect storm in the land of tsunamis
June 30, 2025The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is teetering on the edge of a financial abyss. As of March 31, 2025, it holds ¥575.9 trillion (US$3.97 trillion) in Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs), representing 52% of Japan’s total public debt. For years, its massive bond-buying program—part of an ultra-loose monetary policy—flooded the economy with liquidity, keeping yields…
Hey, Mr. Trump
May 4, 2025In yesterday’s world, the dominance of the dollar amounted to a Faustian dilemma: the United States could indeed finance itself cheaply, but at the cost of dependence on foreign entities, ultimately leading to its decline. A traditional definition of a reserve currency is that the country issuing it must run a balance of payments deficit.…
Trump’s Tariffs: Economic Voodoo at Work
April 7, 2025“They are to economics what creationism is to biology, and astrology is to astronomy,” tweeted Larry Summers, former U.S. Secretary of the Treasury. A statement that highlights the sheer absurdity — even outright foolishness — of the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration. Why then has Lesotho, one of the poorest nations in Africa —…
Black Monday: who is to blame ?
August 5, 2024Collapse of the Japanese Stock Market on August 5, 2024: A 12.4% Drop in a Single Session – The Worst Since the Infamous “Black Monday” of 1987! I see multiple reasons for this: Low Liquidity: The traditionally low liquidity in financial markets during the summer months. Weak Governance: The poor governance by Japanese authorities.…
Tomorrow, we shall be all japanese
June 30, 2024The Yen is plummeting because Japan is forced to maintain very low interest rates to cheaply finance its debt, which amounts to 250% of its GDP. Allowing Japanese rates to rise would trigger a major crisis with global repercussions. Therefore, the substantial loss in Yen’s value is merely a relief valve, the price to…
The beginning of the end, or the end of the beginning?
May 29, 2024A trade deficit must be offset by financial inflows to maintain a minimum level of equilibrium. The United States runs a significant and constant trade deficit, which they manage to finance through the sale of Treasury bonds, bought by China and other governments/central banks. The deal is as follows and is an integral part of…
Silence is golden
April 2, 2024Gold prices, XAU/JPY. Gold shatters all records, silently. Pay attention as gold is sending us a message.
World : Life prognosis at stake
March 18, 2024It’s always the same eternal questions that torment us when a bubble bursts and wreaks havoc on human, economic, and ecological fronts: How did we get here? What happened? Our world finds itself today in a critical situation with few historical precedents because we are now all hostages to multiple and repetitive bubbles. There’s the…
The Age of Barbarians
March 15, 2024How can we forget the cult British series from the 60s, The Prisoner, where a terrifying bubble relentlessly pursued the hero played by the charismatic Patrick McGoohan? Our world finds itself in a similar situation because we are now all hostages to bubbles. From the bubble that isolates the rulers, to the bubble of the…
Is there a way towards economic serenity?
March 29, 2023All the economic parishes agree on the fact that too high debts are harmful. However, they diverge when the profile of the debtor is considered because, while the Austrian school is primarily concerned with public debts, the neo-Keynesians attach much more importance to private sector debts. The classics are indeed indifferent to the debts of…
Is our money still safe in a bank?
March 27, 2023In the CS rescue operation, the Confederation, the SNB and the regulator (Finma) took a decision with serious consequences: to sacrifice Tier 1 bonds, nicknamed “CoCo bonds” or “contingent convertible bonds”. These are hybrid securities between capital and debt, of better quality and which take precedence over equities, a sort of first mortgage. The authorities…