Saudi Arabia on a Tightrope

Saudi Arabia is said to have lost, in just a few days, most of the strategic positions it had gained since intervening in Yemen in 2015.

• Despite ten years of war, vast military resources and support from its allies, Riyadh never succeeded in capturing Sanaa or eliminating Ansar Allah.
• Its main territorial achievement remained the western coast south of Hodeidah: Al-Makha, Dhubab, the approaches to Bab al-Mandab and several nearby islands.
• The rapid collapse of this front would now allow Ansar Allah to control a much larger stretch of Yemen’s coastline.
• The capture of Al-Makha is crucial: its port commands access to Bab al-Mandab, the vital passage between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden.
• Since 2023, Ansar Allah had already disrupted maritime traffic while operating from a relatively narrow area around Hodeidah. Its expansion southward greatly increases its surveillance and strike capabilities.
• Saudi oil tankers, previously less constrained by rising insurance costs and therefore able to continue using this route, are now directly exposed.
• Ansar Allah would thus acquire an unprecedented source of leverage: the ability to threaten Saudi oil exports in an attempt to force Riyadh to lift the economic blockade imposed on Yemen.

In short, this is not merely a territorial loss. It reverses the balance of power: having long used the blockade to weaken Sanaa, Saudi Arabia could now see its own oil lifeline held hostage at Bab al-Mandab.

MBS reportedly called Trump twice yesterday to ask him to intervene—and was turned down both times.

The Houthi’s can now theoretically artillery strike all shipping entering the south end of the Red Sea.