A Fatal March

Trump’s Tweet and the Initial Reaction (March 15, 2025)

On March 15, 2025, at 8:43 a.m., America is abruptly awakened. A tweet from Donald Trump, as brief as it is devastating, strikes the country like an earthquake:

“America First! 20% tax on Mexican and Canadian oil, immediate. No more energy dependence!”

This is not just a slogan. This tax is a direct economic attack. Mexico and Canada provide 30% of America’s oil. Cutting off this vital source threatens the economy.

Immediate Panic in the Markets

News channels go live, experts panic. Traders, eyes glued to the screens, see prices soar: Brent jumps from $100 to $130 in 48 hours. A shortage is feared on an already tight market.

A Domino Effect

The effects are felt immediately. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) forecasts 7% inflation. The Fed tries to react. At 10:30 p.m., Jerome Powell announces a rate hike to 6% in May, to curb inflation without stalling growth.

Financial Chaos (March 17, 2025)

The Shockwave: On March 17, it’s financial chaos

Unprecedented Stock Market Crash

On March 17, the markets panic: easy money is over. The S&P 500 plunges 8% in a day, from 6,050 to 5,565 points, due to automatic selling. The GAFAM giants collapse: -20% in five days. Apple goes from $200 to $160, Amazon from $180 to $144, a loss of $1.5 trillion.

General Capitulation

The word “capitulation” is on everyone’s lips. Trading platforms are saturated, sell orders explode. The crypto market trembles. Bitcoin, at $110,000, falls to $80,000 on March 18 as speculators sell in panic. This drop heralds more serious problems.

Crypto Crisis and Flaws in the System (March 20, 2025)

Domino Effect: On March 20, the crisis spreads

The Crypto Earthquake Devastates the Sector

On March 20, the crisis reaches cryptocurrencies. Binance announces: “Withdrawals suspended for security.” Forums are inflamed, #CryptoCrash and #BinanceScam go viral. Bitcoin collapses to $50,000, losing $200 billion.

A House of Cards Collapses

The domino effect is relentless: Coinbase suspends operations, Kraken implodes. The crypto sector, once a symbol of financial freedom, collapses. The risky loans of American banks, linked to crypto, are called into question.

The Flaws in the System Emerge

This fragility reveals the weaknesses of banks, weakened by Trump’s deregulation. A major financial crisis looms, threatening the global economy.

The System Cracks (March 25, 2025)

The Breaking Point: On March 25, the system cracks

Massive Devaluation of Toxic Assets

On March 25, Bank of America, exposed to $150 billion of the $800 billion in risky loans, announces a significant devaluation. This concerns:

• Mortgage loans ($50 billion): 15% of households are struggling to pay, with rates heading to 7.5%.
• Loans to tech companies ($60 billion): The fall of the GAFAM makes these loans useless.
• Crypto exposure ($40 billion): The $10 billion invested in Binance is now worth only $2 billion after the suspension of withdrawals.

Immediate Repercussions: March 25-26, Panic

Mini Bank Run

Bank of America’s announcement triggers a run. On March 25, lines form in front of banks, online withdrawals explode: more than $50 billion is withdrawn in 48 hours. The bank’s failure is feared.

Emergency Intervention

The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) unlocks $300 billion to reassure customers, guaranteeing accounts up to $250,000. But this only covers a portion of the estimated $1.2 trillion in losses, fueling the panic.

A Vicious Spiral

The domino effect strikes the markets. Bank stocks collapse: Bank of America loses 30% on March 25, dragging down Wells Fargo and Citigroup. On March 26, the S&P 500 falls below 5,400 points. Has Trump’s deregulation created a financial bomb?

The Specter of the “Minsky Moment”

This episode is a turning point. The extent of the toxic assets hidden in the US banking system is uncovered. Experts speak of a “Minsky Moment”: a breaking point where excessive debt causes financial collapses. The bubbles (tech, crypto, real estate) burst, threatening the global economy.

Geopolitical and Economic Contagion (April-June 2025)

Geopolitical and Economic Contagion: April-June 2025, Chaos Spreads

An Opportunity for China

Under pressure from Trump’s tariffs, China intensifies its military exercises near Taiwan, seeing a chance to assert its power. The global economy enters a period of extreme instability.

April 1: Ukraine Abandoned

On April 1, Trump cuts military aid to Ukraine with a tweet: “Europe pays or loses.” Without support, Ukraine weakens, and Russia occupies 30% of the country by June. Cereal exports fall by 20%, wheat rises to $450 per ton, and European gas to €70 per MWh. The EU enters a recession, with GDP declining by 3% in 2025.

April 10-15: Trade War with China

From April 10 to 15, Trump imposes 50% tariffs on Chinese products, accusing Beijing of “stealing American technology.” China retaliates on April 15 with a naval blockade around Taiwan, reducing TSMC’s semiconductor exports by 40%. The Nasdaq plunges 30% to 12,000 points, TSMC loses 50% of its value, and global auto production falls by 20% due to a chip shortage.

April 20-25: Military Escalation in the Middle East

Between April 20 and 25, Trump supports an Israeli strike on Iranian nuclear sites. Iran retaliates by attacking oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, pushing Brent to $145 per barrel. Oil-importing countries (Japan, India, EU) suffer, and global markets panic.

The Collapse of the United States (July-September 2025)

The Collapse of the United States: July-September 2025, the Fall Accelerates

July: Real Estate Crash

In July, US 10-year Treasury yields reach 5.5%, pushing mortgage rates to 7.5%. Defaults explode, with 15% of households behind on payments. Real estate prices fall by 20% (from an average of $400,000 to $320,000). There are 1.5 million foreclosures.

August: Widespread Recession

In August, US inflation exceeds 8%. Consumption falls by 12%. Companies lay off workers, and unemployment rises from 4% to 8% (12 million unemployed). US GDP declines by 5%, and 40,000 SMEs go bankrupt each month. On August 10, Wells Fargo announces a $100 billion loss, but Trump refuses any aid: “No socialism!” The Fed injects $1 trillion, weakening the dollar (EUR/USD at 1.35).

September: Systemic Banking Crisis

In September, banking losses in the US reach $1.2 trillion. Citigroup teeters on the brink of bankruptcy. The S&P 500 falls to 4,000 points (-33% since March), and Bitcoin collapses to $30,000.

Global Repercussions (July-December 2025)

Global Repercussions: July-December 2025, the Crisis Spreads

Europe in Crisis

From July to September, gas reaches €90 per MWh, and European exports to the US fall by 25%. EU GDP declines by 7%, Germany enters a recession (-6%), and the French CAC 40 falls to 4,000 points (-45%). Protests erupt in France, where inflation reaches 10%.

Asia Under Pressure

Between July and October, Chinese growth stagnates (+1% GDP) due to tariffs and the Taiwan blockade. Japan, hit by oil prices, sees its economy decline by 5%. The Nikkei and Hang Seng indices lose 35%, or $6 trillion.

Emerging Countries Strangled

The rise in US rates to 6% causes defaults: Argentina defaults on $80 billion in July, and Turkey on $120 billion in September. The Mexican peso devalues by 40%.

Psychological Damage (July-December 2025)

Psychological Damage: July-December 2025, Fear

Fear Sets In

On July 1, Trump tweets: “The weak fall, the strong survive – this is America!” Panic sets in: US consumption falls by 18%, and 60% of households stop investing. The VIX index breaks the 60 level.

Shattered Confidence

From August to December, Trump isolates himself even more. He threatens to leave the UN on August 15, destroying global confidence. Companies reduce their investments by 20%, banks freeze loans, and chaos amplifies.

Final Consequences (October-December 2025)

Final Consequences: October-December 2025, The Apocalypse

The United States in Free Fall

Before the invasion of Taiwan, the S&P 500 falls to 3,500 points (-42%), and Bitcoin collapses to $15,000 (-86%). US GDP declines by 9%, and unemployment reaches 12% (18 million unemployed). Riots break out in 15 cities: looting in Detroit on October 5, clashes in Los Angeles on October 12. Pro-Trump militias patrol, adding to the instability.

China’s Invasion of Taiwan

On October 20, after months of tension, China launches a military operation against Taiwan, citing “reunification.” The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) cuts internet cables, strikes military bases, and establishes a beachhead on the west coast, despite strong resistance (over 10,000 dead).

• Markets: Nasdaq at 9,600 points (-20%), S&P 500 at 3,200 points, gold at $3,000/ounce.
• Chip Shortage: TSMC stops exports, auto production -40%, Apple and Nvidia -30% revenue, electronics prices double.

Geopolitical Response

Trump tweets: “China steals Taiwan while Biden sleeps!” He refuses any military intervention (“The US won’t pay”), imposes a total embargo on China, and declares a state of emergency on November 15, accusing the Fed, China, and “Democratic traitors.” The dollar falls (EUR/USD at 1.55), and inflation reaches 10%.

Japan and South Korea, terrified, see the Nikkei index fall to 15,000 points (-40%). The EU, already in recession (-7%), can do nothing in the face of gas prices reaching €100 per MWh.

A World in Ruins

Global GDP falls by 7%, stock markets lose 65% of their value ($45 trillion), and $18 trillion in debt defaults. The World Food Programme (WFP) estimates the number of people suffering from famine at 90 million. Iran blocks the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, and Brent oil soars to $160 per barrel. The US dollar represents only 45% of global reserves, while the Chinese yuan reaches 15%.

Overwhelmed Leaders

Overwhelmed, Trump blames his enemies on December 20: “We are in an economic war, and I will win!” Xi Jinping celebrates a “historical necessity,” despite a Chinese economy growing by only +0.5%.

December 2025: The Legacy of Chaos

Trump becomes the symbol of the chaos he has created, validating economist Hyman Minsky’s theory on the fragility of the financial system.

The European Union to the Rescue (January 2026 – December 2027)

The European Union to the Rescue: January 2026 – December 2027, Hope

January-March 2026: Facing the Chaos

The world is in ruins: -7% global GDP, $45 trillion lost in markets, $18 trillion in defaulted debt. The US is paralyzed, China is wavering (+0.5% GDP), but the EU (-7%) holds firm, with a stable currency (EUR/USD 1.55).

On January 5, France and Germany (Angela Merkel is recalled) launch the Global Renaissance Plan (GRP) in Pau: €2 trillion to stabilize the economy, financed by eurobonds and taxes on tech giants.

• February: Gas returns to €60 per MWh (agreement with Russia), and Brent to $120 per barrel (mediation with Iran). €500 billion invested in chip production (TSMC in Poland and Germany).
• March: €300 billion in humanitarian aid, reducing the number of people suffering from famine to 50 million (Elon Musk leaves his US roles and requests to coordinate humanitarian aid, with Thierry Breton).

April-June 2026: Mediation and Rebound

• April: Ceasefire between China and Taiwan (April 15), and special status for Taiwan. Trump accepts €500 billion in EU loans, lifts tariffs, and disarms his militias.
• May: Restructuring of $18 trillion in debt, the French CAC 40 reaches 5,000 points, and the US S&P 500 reaches 4,000 points. Investments in green infrastructure (€1.5 trillion, 5 million jobs), and the EU GDP improves to -2%.
• June: Peace agreement between India and Pakistan, and wheat price returns to $350 per ton.

July-December 2026: The EU as Economic Leader

• July: The euro is used in 60% of global transactions.
• September: Signing of the Global Stability Pact (GSP), and global GDP recovers to -3%.
• December: Brent returns to $100 per barrel, the S&P 500 to 4,500 points, and Bitcoin to $25,000.

January-December 2027: The Indispensable EU

• January: Global GDP jumps to +1%, and the EU’s to +2%. A Global European Council (GEC) is convened in Paris.
• March: Trump is marginalized (his impeachment process fails). He takes refuge in Las Vegas, sinking into oblivion. A Universal Prosperity Pact is established by Europe.

After the “Minsky Moment” of 2025, the EU emerges in 2027 with €5 trillion invested to stabilize the economy and mediate conflicts. It becomes the benchmark, with a dominant euro, thriving technology, and a harmonious societal model, standing in contrast to a divided United States and a weakened China.