The Abraham Divide

November 2025 – Syria officially signs the Abraham Accords during a high-profile ceremony in Washington. Under the patronage of President Trump, the concessions are mutual: Israel grants limited economic rights over the Golan Heights, while Syria agrees to normalize diplomatic and commercial relations with its neighbor. The United States lifts sanctions imposed under the Caesar Act, opening the door to massive foreign investment.

Syrian Resurrection

Already signatories to the Accords, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia inject 20 billion dollars into reconstruction projects in Syria (infrastructure, energy, ports). Israeli companies, specializing in technology and agriculture, form partnerships, notably to modernize agriculture in the Syrian Bekaa Valley.

The lifting of sanctions allows Syria to resume oil and gas exports through regional pipelines, expected to generate around 3 billion dollars annually starting in 2026. Trade with Gulf countries increases by 30%, and regional tourism (pilgrimages, historical sites) experiences a notable boom thanks to relaxed border control agreements. Turkey and Jordan intensify trade with Syria, which is set to become a logistical hub between Europe and the Gulf.

The Syrian pound stabilizes, inflation drops from 80% in 2024 to 30%, with GDP growth expected to reach 5% in 2026. Now a key player in regional cooperation, Syria is invited to participate in cross-border infrastructure projects (pipelines, railways). It attracts European Union reconstruction funds, which will further integrate it into the global economy.

Lebanese Decline

Syria’s growing prosperity attracts around 50,000 Lebanese workers, who gradually cross the border for jobs in construction and agriculture. Meanwhile, Lebanon rejects any integration into the Abraham Accords: “Normalization is out of the question,” insists a prominent government minister.

Without access to Gulf investments or relief from indirect sanctions, Lebanon’s economy continues to deteriorate. Within months, the Lebanese pound loses another 20%, and inflation reaches 200%. Fuel and food imports, already limited, drop by 30%, triggering widespread shortages.

Around 100,000 Lebanese people, mainly skilled professionals, are expected to leave the country in 2026, further weakening the economic fabric. Foreign investment collapses, falling from 500 million dollars in 2024 to 200 million by the end of 2025. Unemployment now affects 50% of the population, 70% of whom live below the poverty line. Public services, like electricity (limited to 2 hours per day in 2025), implode in some regions.

Lebanon becomes an economic outcast, losing access to Gulf markets and regional initiatives, sinking deeper into economic and social marginalization. Fatalistic and resigned — “apathetic” would be the more accurate word — the Lebanese watch and wait, just as they did during the financial crisis they saw coming but failed to confront. They blame “foreign hands” for their misfortunes, hoping for an external solution. Politicians, for their part, are content to pose for photographs, seated, in typical Lebanese fashion. After all, isn’t Lebanon still the only democracy in the region?

Testimony

I lived through the Syrian occupation of Lebanon (1976–2005) and the brutality of its army and intelligence services. I witnessed the looting of Lebanon by the Syrian regime, which cost the country an estimated 150 billion dollars over 30 years through smuggling, illegal taxes, diverted customs revenues, and exploitation of natural resources.

Since 2011, I have seen 1.5 million Syrian refugees — about 25% of the Lebanese population — flee the civil war and settle here, costing Lebanon 50 billion dollars, overwhelming its infrastructure and schools, triggering astronomical inflation, and pushing the middle class into decline as they became unable to afford housing.

Today, from the outside, Syria’s new leadership appears determined to rebuild the country, even embracing what was unthinkable just a few months ago: peace with Israel.

Meanwhile, the Lebanese indulge in endless talk,talk, languidly and without resolve.
Thank God — their frivolity and passivity spare them from fully realizing the humiliation of being outpaced by the very Syria that once inflicted so much suffering on them.

————————————————————————————————————————————————–

Before leaving, leaf through chapter 12 (Michaal) of A Levantine Youth with me

On the way back to the airfield in Mecca, both during the walk to his enormous limousine and the ride inside it, Abdallah calls me “Michaal,” taking my hand openly and repeatedly in front of his men. He then quotes to me verses from the Qur’an, explaining that they are well known: “He is closer to man than his jugular vein” (50:16), and He “positions Himself between a person and his heart” (8:24).

“These are warnings, Michaal! You now have the responsibility to prove yourself worthy of the pilgrimage you have just completed.” The Kaaba, the Black Stone, are relics of remembrance, because memory is fundamental. The memory of hundreds of generations who came before us, who addressed the Divine just as we do now. I was the mayor of this city even before you were born, and I feel deeply, every day, its serenity, as well as its historically fundamental significance for us Muslims. I fear that the knowledge of our predecessors is fading. That is exactly why we must, with constant discipline, repeat our prayers to God. It is the continuous practice of religion, it is the memory of our Prophet who began his path — and ours — at this sacred place adorned by the Black Stone, that will perpetuate Islam.

Then he continues, affectionately, with a hint of sadness I had never seen before, lamenting that we, in Europe, have discarded the gaze of God. “Do not underestimate the Arabs, Michaal. Besides, you are one yourself! You are incredibly lucky to have come to these places. Throughout history, even kings had to travel six months by caravan to reach Mecca, whereas you were flown there by helicopter. You are now equal to mythical figures who completed their pilgrimage through the millennia. Michaal: you are Harun al-Rashid, the Abbasid caliph who marked the Islamic Golden Age and who performed this pilgrimage at least five times. Michaal: you are the great Salah ad-Din, Sultan of Egypt and Syria, who defeated the Crusaders and reconquered Jerusalem. He performed Hajj in 1183. The most famous ruler of Africa, Mansa Musa, is remembered for the wealth he distributed on the way to Mecca in 1324. People still talk about him today. Michaal: you are Mansa Musa!”

“Know this, though, for us Muslims, the Kaaba is a simple structure, and the Black Stone is just a stone. They have no divine attributes. The only value of the Kaaba lies in the fact that the Prophet kissed it. We must pray facing it, but few know that the first Muslims prayed facing Jerusalem. It is to mark the unity of Muslim peoples across the universe that we all pray facing the Kaaba, for it brings us all — men and women alike — together in unison, in the same direction. This is how the Muslim nation communicates, and this is how we commune five times a day: by meeting all together in spirit, in this place. As for the Kaaba, as for the Stone, Umar himself, companion of the Prophet and second Caliph, declared that it was capable of neither harm nor good, and that he would never have paid homage to it if the Prophet had not kissed it.

Well, I assure you that we would pray facing it even if the Kaaba were to disappear one day! We are light years away from the idolatry of Christians. I, who have traveled so much, tell you, a Jew has no problem entering a mosque, yet is terribly reluctant to set foot in a church. Michaal, do not listen to what is said. Ignore the propaganda that tries to make Jews our enemies, because we are much closer to them than to you, the Christians! You have come to Mecca, you have seen the indescribable emotion there, but it is essential that you understand that we are not worshippers of either the Kaaba or the Black Stone. It is as if Jews were to revere the wall they pray facing!”