Syria: Finally, the Return to Raison d’État

The Syrian government has just increased customs duties on all imports from Turkey by a staggering 300%. Has Ahmad el Charaa, Damascus’ new strongman, drawn inspiration from Donald Trump, who has repeatedly threatened trade partners with sharp tariff hikes since taking office? Not quite. The recently installed Syrian administration is, in fact, harmonizing its customs duties, simultaneously reducing tariffs on imports from Lebanon, Jordan, and Iraq by 60%.

This significant disparity in tariffs imposed on goods from these three Arab neighbors versus those from Turkey was deliberately established by the previous Assad administration. Until the fall of the Syrian dictator, Turkish goods were virtually exempt from tariffs, while imports from “sister” Arab nations faced heavy penalties. This harmonization of Syrian tariffs is causing uproar—an understatement—among Turkish business circles, and understandably so. Turkish exports to Syria have exceeded $2 billion annually for several years.

As a key player in the region and host to three million Syrian refugees, Turkey now faces a freeze—or outright suspension—of all its exports to Syria. The hardest hit appears to be Turkey’s agri-food sector, which had been exporting massive quantities of grains, legumes, oilseeds, and other agricultural products to Syria. Turkey’s cement industry is also likely to suffer, with some exporters reporting Syrian duties of $27 on a $50 bag of cement. The abrupt shift has left Turkish exporters reeling, questioning what influence their country still wields in Syria. Unsurprisingly, some Turkish officials have issued warnings, predicting severe inflation and a collapse in Syrian purchasing power as a consequence of the steep 300% tariff hike.

The new Syrian leadership is, however, attempting to establish a fairer playing field in import duties with neighboring countries while seeking to generate much-needed revenue. Syria, dry of resources, has been suffering under international sanctions for 13 years. Business leaders from Lebanon and Jordan have openly voiced their grievances to el Charaa and his team, decrying the unfair competition posed by Turkish goods, which had flooded the Syrian market due to their preferential treatment.

Despite this backlash, the new regime in Damascus appears unpressured, for one simple reason: food prices have plummeted since the fall of the Assad clique. The dictator’s corrupt system had monopolized nearly all quality imports at border checkpoints, diverting them to a privileged Syrian elite and the 170,000 soldiers that made up his army. Assad’s fall has resulted in well-stocked markets and grocery stores offering quality goods at prices halved—or even lower—compared to those under his rule.

For example, the price of a kilo of potatoes has dropped from 9,000 Syrian pounds to 4,000; Lebanese bananas are now 30% cheaper; olive oil from Idlib costs a quarter of what it did before; and cigarettes, once monopolized by Assad’s allies, have seen their prices fall from 13,000 to 7,000 pounds per pack. The spectacular recovery of the Syrian pound—from 22,000 to 12,000 per U.S. dollar since Assad’s departure—is another significant factor contributing to the price decline.

This reprieve is a welcome relief for a population devastated under the previous regime, where 90% lived below the poverty line. It also offers a glimmer of hope for a country that, according to the World Bank, has seen 85% of its GDP wiped out.