Turkey is abandoning Iran

Erdogan has surprised both his allies and his adversaries: by freezing the assets of key Iranian institutions, the Turkish president is sending clear signals to Washington. A spectacular U-turn from the man who, until recently, portrayed himself as Tehran’s defender against U.S. sanctions.

The Return of the “Snapback”: Iran Under Sanctions Again

After the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) declared Iran non-compliant with its nuclear obligations, the United Nations Security Council’s Resolution 2231 was reactivated through the so-called “snapback” mechanism.
This procedure, included in the 2015 nuclear deal (JCPOA), allows the deal’s signatories to automatically reinstate international sanctions if Iran fails to meet its commitments.

The decision, initiated by the E3 (the United Kingdom, France, and Germany), marks a turning point in Europe’s approach to Tehran. In its wake, Turkey unexpectedly announced the freezing of the assets of 20 Iranian individuals and 20 entities, including the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI), Bank Sepah, and key nuclear facilities in Isfahan and Karaj.

Ankara Sanctions Tehran: “Betrayal” for Iran, Calculated Move for Erdogan

In Tehran, Turkey’s decision was perceived as a “major escalation” against Iran’s nuclear program. Iranian state media went so far as to denounce it as a “Sunni betrayal.”
But behind this apparent rupture lies a carefully negotiated geopolitical trade-off between Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Donald Trump, conducted within the broader framework of discussions over the Gaza ceasefire.

During his visit to the White House on September 25 — the first high-level bilateral meeting between the two leaders since 2019 — Erdogan reportedly agreed to help moderate Hamas and to align with the Western position on Iran, in exchange for substantial economic and political concessions.

An Opportunistic Realignment, Not an Ideological Shift

This diplomatic shift does not reflect a change of doctrine but rather a tactical adjustment.
Since the U.S. withdrawal from the JCPOA in 2018, Ankara has repeatedly bypassed American sanctions in order to preserve a bilateral trade relationship with Iran worth roughly $16 billion, mostly in oil and gas.

A NATO member but frequent critic of the West, Erdogan has long positioned himself as a strategic tightrope walker:

• denouncing “American hegemony” while benefiting from Iranian trade;

• maintaining an anti-imperialist rhetoric for domestic purposes;

• and using Turkish banks and ports as discreet channels for Iranian exports.

This balancing act reached its limits after Washington began sanctioning Turkish companies accused of facilitating Iranian sanctions evasion.

Halkbank: The Weak Link in Turkey’s Position

At the heart of Ankara’s realignment lies a sensitive issue: Halkbank, a major state-owned Turkish bank accused by U.S. authorities of laundering over $20 billion derived from illegal Iranian oil sales.
The U.S. Supreme Court recently rejected Ankara’s claim to sovereign immunity, paving the way for a New York trial on charges of fraud and sanctions evasion.

Erdogan is eager to avoid a financial and diplomatic crisis. According to several sources, Trump reportedly told the Turkish president that “the Halkbank problem was solved” following their White House meeting — in exchange for Ankara’s closer alignment with Washington’s Middle East policy.

F-35s, LNG, and Nuclear Power: The Price of Reconciliation

The Turkish-American rapprochement came with an extensive package deal:

• reinstatement of Turkey’s participation in the F-35 program, for which Ankara had already paid $1.4 billion;

• an order for 225 Boeing aircraft;

• large-scale purchases of U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) at the expense of Russian imports;

• a contract granting an American company the construction of a civilian nuclear plant in Sinop, replacing an earlier Russian project;

• and tacit Turkish participation in the “Abraham Shield,” a regional defense initiative led by the U.S. and Israel.

A Turkish Economy on Life Support

These policy shifts come amid a dire economic situation:

• inflation exceeding 70 percent;

• a collapsing Turkish lira;

• declining foreign reserves;

• and an urgent need for foreign capital.

By siding with Washington, Erdogan hopes to restore investor confidence, regain access to Western financing, and strengthen his influence in Syria by sidelining Iran-backed militias and Hezbollah-linked networks.

A Calculated Pivot, Not a Capitulation

Despite Tehran’s accusations, Turkey’s new posture does not amount to submission to the West but rather to a display of pragmatic realism.
Erdogan seeks above all to maximize his country’s political and economic gains while maintaining a pro-Palestinian discourse that remains vital to his domestic base.

Trump, for his part, publicly praised Erdogan’s role in the Gaza talks, calling him “magnificent” and claiming that “Hamas respects him,” highlighting Ankara’s ambition to act as a mediator in the region.

Conclusion: Turkish Realism Without Illusions

Turkey is not abandoning Iran out of conviction, but out of necessity.
Under economic, diplomatic, and judicial pressure, Erdogan is playing a pragmatic card — a temporary realignment with the United States to stabilize the economy, regain regional clout, and secure tangible rewards.

Ankara remains true to its long-standing doctrine: never commit fully to one camp, but profit from all.