Iran: A Nuclear Heart and Soul
Oil revenues account for 40 to 50% of Iran’s budget income and 80 to 90% of its export earnings. The country is once again facing an existential threat, as the U.S. President’s aggressive stance on tariffs has led to a roughly 20% drop in oil prices this year so far. This has significantly intensified the pressure on Iran’s leadership — pressure that is deeply felt. On top of that, Iran is forced to slash its oil prices for both state and private buyers willing to take the risk of purchasing its crude despite sanctions.
As usual, the authorities’ go-to strategy will, in a first and basic reflex, be to push ahead with the privatization of state enterprises by transferring ownership to semi-private actors — namely the Revolutionary Guards and various religious and private foundations. In other words, there is little hope for revitalizing the Iranian economy. Past disastrous waves of privatization have shown the incompetence of these semi-private (or semi-public) groups in managing strategic entities, including petrochemical plants, refineries, and power stations.
Iran is therefore not in a position to benefit from the emergence of a strong and credible private sector in an environment plagued by widespread and deep-rooted corruption. In fact, it’s quite the opposite: genuinely privately-owned businesses are marginalized and account for only 10 to 13% of the country’s overall economic activity. Those that manage to survive face major hurdles due to the constant introduction of new regulations and laws — the result of either the legislature’s near-total lack of governance or deliberate pressure from the semi-public sector, which uses these measures as a covert way to undermine and weaken its private competitors.
In the short term, to try to offset the inevitable erosion of its oil revenues, the Iranian government has announced the immediate termination of subsidies for 17 million citizens. This decision — which will once again render a new administration (that of President Pezeshkian) deeply unpopular — will allow the government to cut its household aid by 25%.
The only lifeline and sole reason for hope is a nuclear deal with the United States. In this regard, the markets — in their infinite foresight — have taken notice: the Iranian currency, the rial, jumped from its historic low of over 1 million to the U.S. dollar in early April to 850,000 just a few days ago. Just a few hours and negotiation sessions with the U.S. led to a 20% appreciation of the rial — a feat the Iranian central bank had failed to achieve despite injecting hundreds of millions in efforts to halt the currency’s collapse.
A gradual de-escalation would clearly be the ideal scenario — both for Iran’s economy and its people — as it would allow the country to return to international markets and immediately ease pressure by releasing substantial frozen assets. The Pezeshkian administration appears to be showing goodwill and openness in talks with American representatives. Iran’s chief negotiator, Araghchi, even tweeted a scornful message aimed at Biden while praising Trump as a wise leader.
And yet, the Iranian people’s legitimate hopes may once again be dashed. Behind the scenes — as is often the case in Iran — a power struggle rages between hardliners and reformists. Even among the hardliners, a small but loud and active faction opposes any deal with the U.S. and seeks revenge for the 2020 assassination of Qassem Soleimani, head of the Quds Force, along with others since.
Lastly — and perhaps most importantly — the nuclear program is far more than just a weapon to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. It remains his final card to assert the authority he has held since 1979. Any compromise would be tantamount to betraying the legacy and intentions of Khomeini. Without the nuclear program, Iran would become a “normal country” and lose the exceptionalism and sense of destiny that its Shiite ideology confers.
Press Pitch: A Levantine Youth – A Searing, Timely Testimony at the Heart of the Middle East’s Fractures
In a world where the Middle East remains an epicenter of geopolitical tension — from the war in Syria to the Iran–Saudi Arabia rivalry and the Israeli–Palestinian conflict — A Levantine Youth by Michel Santi offers a unique and captivating insight into the roots of these ongoing crises.
The son of a French diplomat and a Christian Lebanese mother, Michel Santi was thrust into the chaos of the Lebanese Civil War (1975–1982) at just 11 years old.
From Beirut to Jerusalem, via Jeddah, Paris, and Tehran, his adolescence unfolds at the crossroads of cultures, religions, and conflicts — crossing paths with key historical figures: prime ministers, princes, militiamen, and even Ayatollah Khomeini, who invited him aboard his triumphant return flight to Tehran in 1979.
An intimate account that sheds light on today’s world
This gripping memoir is more than just a journey through the past.
Santi’s encounters — from the future King of Saudi Arabia to a young Commander Massoud, and even the “Red Prince” behind the Munich attacks — reveal the origins of regional dynamics that continue to shape the Middle East today: the rise of revolutionary Shiism, deep-rooted rivalries, and identity-based struggles.
His friendships with radical Christian militiamen, forbidden love affairs in war-torn Lebanon, and his escape from Jerusalem under Mossad protection amid espionage suspicions all echo today’s sectarian fractures and human tragedies.
Why does this book resonate now?
• Geopolitical relevance: At a time when the Middle East remains a hotbed of crises, this narrative deciphers the historical roots of today’s conflicts — from Iran–Israel tensions to religious divisions.
• Human dimension: Santi blends the personal with the political, narrating a quest for identity in a fractured world — a universal theme that speaks to readers in today’s polarized climate.
• Extraordinary encounters: From Khomeini sharing his vision for a revolutionary Iran to an afternoon spent with Massoud, these striking moments offer a rare closeness to History.
A Levantine Youth is a geopolitical thriller and a story of resilience that transcends borders.
Santi shatters red lines, defying prejudices and taboos, and draws from this chaotic era an inner strength that will later lead him to a career in finance.
A must-read to understand the Middle East — past and present — through the eyes of a remarkable witness.
Buy it:
France: FNAC
Switzerland: PAYOT
Lebanon: ANTOINE
Canada: Les Libraires
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