India-Pakistan: behind the scenes, another confrontation

Pakistan has been reduced to publicly issuing nuclear threats, while its diplomacy is actively seeking conciliation with India, the world’s fourth-largest power.

In the context of its long-standing conflict with India — dating back to 1947 — Pakistan is almost militarily depleted, having exported around $400 million worth of 155 mm shells and 122 mm rockets to Ukraine, via intermediaries or third countries. While these exports were crucial in easing economic pressure, they have significantly limited the operational capacity of its army, which, according to some sources, could sustain intensive combat operations for only about four days.

Another confrontation seems to be looming in the background. In recent months, India has decisively strengthened ties with the United States, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, while solidifying its position in global supply chains — notably through projects like manufacturing iPhones for the U.S. market. Meanwhile, Pakistan leans more heavily on China, Turkey, and Iran.

Nothing is simple, however, in this region, as India and Iran maintain a discreet strategic partnership. India imports oil from Iran and invests in the port of Chabahar, a rival to Pakistan’s Chinese-backed port of Gwadar. India is thus investing tens of billions to balance China’s influence in the Gulf of Oman and to counter the flagship China-Pakistan Belt and Road project, which provides China with direct access to the Arabian Sea.