The Fed’s Blueprint for Economic Self-Destruction

The Federal Reserve (Fed) has launched its quantitative tightening (QT) this June, aiming to reduce its $9 trillion balance sheet at an unprecedented pace of $95 billion per month.

Amid the ongoing tariff wars and geopolitical dramas, few are paying attention to the actions of the U.S. central bank – and understandably so. Still, this liquidity rug being gradually pulled from under our feet is bound to trigger an economic storm.

Stock markets are set to plunge by 30%, wiping out $10 trillion in market capitalization. For context, the S&P 500 dropped by 20% in just three months back in 2018 during the previous QT – and that was only at a pace of $50 billion per month.

Thirty-year mortgage rates will easily reach 8% by 2026. Existing home sales, already down 20% (according to the National Association of Realtors), are projected to fall another 30%, erasing $10 trillion in real estate wealth.

Consumption, which accounts for 70% of U.S. GDP, will decline by at least 3% – about $400 billion – driven by more expensive credit and a negative wealth effect. Retailers (Amazon, Target) and the tourism/hospitality industries (Marriott, Delta) will be hit by falling purchasing power. A 3% drop in consumption will reduce annual revenues in these sectors by $100 billion (based on data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis). Household debt, now at $16.9 trillion (Federal Reserve), will become increasingly expensive to service, especially as credit card interest rates soar to as high as 30% by 2026.

Suffocated by rising borrowing costs, investments will plummet by 40% in the venture capital and industrial project sectors, falling from $600 billion to $360 billion by 2026. Corporate bonds – and thus companies’ borrowing costs – will hit 6% by 2026, rendering long-term projects and tech start-ups far less viable. Tech companies, especially those in the Nasdaq, are highly vulnerable: a 1% increase in bond yields could cut their valuations by 10 to 15%. In 2022, Meta and Tesla plunged 60% during the first wave of rate hikes. The QT starting this month will only exacerbate this trend, particularly for unprofitable start-ups reliant on venture capital.

Non-financial corporate debt, currently at $12 trillion (according to the Federal Reserve), will spark defaults, especially in highly leveraged sectors like commercial real estate. Often heavily indebted ($500 billion, S&P Global), oil and gas companies will also be hit hard by rising borrowing costs. An increase in high-yield bond rates to 9% (compared to 7% in 2022) will set off a chain of defaults, devastating small shale oil firms.

Let’s remember that the theoretical aim of QT is to unwind the excess liquidity created by quantitative easing (QE), which ballooned the Fed’s balance sheet from $900 billion in 2008 to $9 trillion in 2022.

However, in an environment marred by endless policy flip-flops and the Trump administration’s stubborn protectionist stance on economic matters, I foresee a shock of punishing magnitude.

Bad timing, Fed!