Saudi Arabia is pumping less oil and embarking on massive spending (cities of the future, major sporting events).
The most important statistic to watch is its balance of payments, which—as you can see from this chart—turns negative in 2024.
From being a lender to the world, it has become a borrower, and this is happening even with oil averaging $80 a barrel last year (and $78 so far in 2025).
This paradigm shift is here to stay. Trump—who is visiting Saudi Arabia next month—may face serious disappointment, as he hopes to leave with $1 trillion in investments.
This Saudi pivot is just one more sign of a global dynamic undergoing major upheaval.
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