Collective hysteria about debt is dangerous. More perilous even than debt itself.
It reflects a profound misunderstanding of the nature and scale of public debt.
Is France sinking inexorably into a “debt swamp”? Will its €3.3 trillion in gross public debt drive it to the edge of the abyss? Is it condemned to drastic budget cuts to avoid a partial default like Greece, or a total collapse like Argentina, or even to face the threat of the IMF?
This catastrophist rhetoric, this wave of panic—fueled by outdated sermons from discredited experts and stoked by rating agencies that have lost credibility after repeated past misjudgments—flies in the face of basic macroeconomic principles.
Debt: a false monster but a real political construct
Debt is not a credit card bill that must be paid off all at once. Public debt is constantly refinanced, with staggered maturities, only a fraction of which fall due in any given quarter or year. By definition, a state like France borrows over long horizons.
An extreme but illuminating example: Britain repaid in 2015 a so-called “perpetual” bond first issued by Walpole in…1751!
French Treasury bonds (OATs) are among the most liquid in the world, its debt market one of the deepest globally, and still today (in 2025) considered a benchmark safe asset in the eurozone and beyond.
Pessimists see as a weakness the fact that roughly half of this debt is held by foreign investors. In reality, it is a sign of confidence: France is one of the most robust issuers in the world. And financial markets, hardly philanthropic by nature, know very well that the annual servicing of this debt—about €53 billion—is significant but far from unsustainable for an economy worth €2.8 trillion. What matters is not the size of the debt stock, but its cost, which will remain manageable even if rates rise.
Why, then, this organized panic?
The prophets of doom should study history. This is far from the first time France has carried heavy debt. Debt stood at 113% of GDP (as today) after the 1870 war, only to fall to 68% by 1914 thanks to industrialization and growth.
In the interwar period, French debt soared to over 300%, but after 1945 it gradually declined to 150%. Far from damning France, that debt laid the groundwork for the “Trente Glorieuses,” thirty years of 5% annual growth that reduced the debt-to-GDP ratio to below 20% by 1980.
Nor is France unique today. Britain’s debt exceeded 250% of GDP after World War II. Japan has remained a global economic powerhouse for thirty years despite debt of 230%. The United States stands at 122%, Italy at 138%. France is not an outlier among advanced economies—and it enjoys two major advantages: a diversified economy and a strong currency.
Populist fear tactics
The real danger does not come from debt itself, but from how we choose to respond to it. Beware suicidal—and frankly populist—decisions that insist on the absolute necessity of tens of billions in cuts.
Less public spending means less growth, less tax revenue, and in the end an even heavier debt burden. Debt has never been reduced through austerity—only through growth.
Throughout history, every surge in debt has coincided with a major crisis (war, pandemic, energy shock). And every lasting decline has come with economic expansion. To believe debt can be tamed by spending cuts alone is an illusion—even a crime: against the poor, taxed further, and against the wealthy, pushed to flee the country.
French public debt is neither a bottomless pit nor a ticking time bomb. It is an instrument. History, international comparisons, and present data all show that we have the means to manage it. The true threat lies in panic and Pavlovian populist rhetoric, which push us into austerity, stagnation, and decline.
Unleashing growth
We must also put an end to falsehoods. Our descendants will not inherit abstract liabilities; they will inherit infrastructure, hospitals, universities, investments in the green transition. Yesterday’s debt financed the welfare state, highways, the TGV, nuclear power, schools—all assets we benefit from today.
What matters is not the gross amount of debt, but how it is used. Debt for everyday consumption is questionable. Debt for research, innovation, education, the green transition—investments that generate future income and quality of life—is not.
We must stop trembling at numbers stripped of context. Political courage is not about waving blind spending cuts to appease markets or secure a place in the history books. True courage is investing in the future.
The debt-to-GDP ratio is just that: a ratio. If debt grows 3% but GDP grows 4%, the ratio falls. Let us hope for a stateswoman or statesman who calls us to bet on growth, not fear. Someone who understands that debt is not a shackle, but a lever. It is up to us to decide whether to use it to build—or to let the “serious” voices chain us to endless austerity.
Invest, and let growth do the work.
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