{"id":32231,"date":"2026-09-11T13:17:13","date_gmt":"2026-09-11T11:17:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/?p=32231"},"modified":"2026-09-11T15:54:09","modified_gmt":"2026-09-11T13:54:09","slug":"saudi-arabia-on-a-tightrope","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/iran-2\/saudi-arabia-on-a-tightrope","title":{"rendered":"Saudi Arabia on a Tightrope"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"32233\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/arabie-saoudite\/larabie-sur-la-corde-raide\/attachment\/bab\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/bab.jpg?fit=674%2C474&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"674,474\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;alt&quot;:&quot;&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"bab\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/bab.jpg?fit=674%2C474&amp;ssl=1\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-32233\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/bab.jpg?resize=674%2C474&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" width=\"674\" height=\"474\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/bab.jpg?w=674&amp;ssl=1 674w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/bab.jpg?resize=300%2C211&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 674px) 100vw, 674px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Saudi Arabia is said to have lost, in just a few days, most of the strategic positions it had gained since intervening in Yemen in 2015.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Despite ten years of war, vast military resources and support from its allies, Riyadh never succeeded in capturing Sanaa or eliminating Ansar Allah.<\/li>\n<li>Its main territorial achievement remained the western coast south of Hodeidah: Al-Makha, Dhubab, the approaches to Bab al-Mandab and several nearby islands.<\/li>\n<li>The rapid collapse of this front would now allow Ansar Allah to control a much larger stretch of Yemen\u2019s coastline.<\/li>\n<li>The capture of Al-Makha is crucial: its port commands access to Bab al-Mandab, the vital passage between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden.<\/li>\n<li>Since 2023, Ansar Allah had already disrupted maritime traffic while operating from a relatively narrow area around Hodeidah. Its expansion southward greatly increases its surveillance and strike capabilities.<\/li>\n<li>Saudi oil tankers, previously less constrained by rising insurance costs and therefore able to continue using this route, are now directly exposed.<\/li>\n<li>Ansar Allah would thus acquire an unprecedented source of leverage: the ability to threaten Saudi oil exports in an attempt to force Riyadh to lift the economic blockade imposed on Yemen.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>In short, this is not merely a territorial loss. It reverses the balance of power: having long used the blockade to weaken Sanaa, Saudi Arabia could now see its own oil lifeline held hostage at Bab al-Mandab.<\/p>\n<p>MBS reportedly called Trump twice yesterday to ask him to intervene\u2014and was turned down both times.<\/p>\n<p>The Houthi&#8217;s can now theoretically artillery strike all shipping entering the south end of the Red Sea.<\/p>\n<p>The Saudi paradox is striking: the kingdom fields one of the most formidable air forces in the region \u2014 nearly 400 aircraft, including a substantial number of F-15s and Eurofighter Typhoons \u2014 yet its freedom of action is now said to be almost nil. Riyadh is reported to have depleted its interceptor missile stockpiles by contributing to Israel&#8217;s defense, to the point where it can no longer shield its own installations from an Iranian counterstrike.<\/p>\n<p>Any offensive against Iran or one of its allies could therefore leave Saudi energy infrastructure exposed to devastating retaliation. In a country whose water supply depends heavily on desalination, the consequences would reach far beyond oil production: they could trigger a full-blown humanitarian catastrophe. Without effective cover from the United States and Israel, the kingdom would thus find itself incapable of confronting Tehran \u2014 despite the staggering scale of its military expenditure. Through its resilience, its strike capabilities, and the tactics it has refined, Iran would have succeeded in dictating the terms of confrontation to the other regional powers.<\/p>\n<p>In this light, Trump&#8217;s congratulations to Mohammed bin Salman over the Mecca pact \u2014 following the crown prince&#8217;s refusal to join him on the Abraham Accords \u2014 take on an altogether different meaning. They might be read as a warning cloaked in diplomatic courtesy: MBS has chosen his path, and Washington now intends to let him bear the consequences alone.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&nbsp; Saudi Arabia is said to have lost, in just a few days, most of the strategic positions it had gained since intervening in Yemen in 2015. Despite ten years of war, vast military resources and support from its allies, Riyadh never succeeded in capturing Sanaa or eliminating Ansar Allah. Its main territorial achievement remained&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"give_campaign_id":0,"_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_wpcom_ai_launchpad_first_post":false,"mc4wp_mailchimp_campaign":[],"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"{title}\n\n{excerpt}\n\n{url}","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"_wpas_customize_per_network":false,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[648942631,648941288],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-32231","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-iran-2","category-saudi-arabia"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Saudi Arabia on a Tightrope - Michel Santi<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/iran-2\/saudi-arabia-on-a-tightrope\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Saudi Arabia on a Tightrope - Michel Santi\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"&nbsp; Saudi Arabia is said to have lost, in just a few days, most of the strategic positions it had gained since intervening in Yemen in 2015. 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This is how, more than nine months after feeling the wrath of Saudi Arabia, Qatar has now\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Saudi Arabia&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Saudi Arabia","link":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/category\/saudi-arabia"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/Qatar.jpg?fit=1200%2C473&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/Qatar.jpg?fit=1200%2C473&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/Qatar.jpg?fit=1200%2C473&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/Qatar.jpg?fit=1200%2C473&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/Qatar.jpg?fit=1200%2C473&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":13632,"url":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/saudi-arabia\/checkmate-for-saudi-arabia","url_meta":{"origin":32231,"position":3},"title":"Checkmate for Saudi Arabia","author":"Michel Santi","date":"September 12, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"The debacle of oil prices has greatly exceeded that of the global financial crisis of 2008 and the Asian crisis of 1998. And it is much more severe. At the end of this summer of 2015, OPEC is just a shadow of its former self: simply put, it has been\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Oil&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Oil","link":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/category\/oil"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/AI.jpg?fit=930%2C620&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/AI.jpg?fit=930%2C620&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/AI.jpg?fit=930%2C620&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/AI.jpg?fit=930%2C620&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":19136,"url":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/oil\/saudi-arabia-is-no-longer-too-big-to-fail","url_meta":{"origin":32231,"position":4},"title":"Saudi Arabia is no longer \u2018too big to fail\u2019","author":"Michel Santi","date":"December 5, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"Is Saudi Arabia still an important partner to the US? The question answers itself, at least partially, with the Middle East having drastically changed since the strategic and fundamental alliance made in 1943 by President Franklin Roosevelt and King Abdulaziz Ibn Saud. It\u2019s now a distant time when FDR boldly,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Oil&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Oil","link":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/category\/oil"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/MBS.jpg?fit=750%2C375&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/MBS.jpg?fit=750%2C375&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/MBS.jpg?fit=750%2C375&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/MBS.jpg?fit=750%2C375&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":13670,"url":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/saudi-arabia\/saudi-arabia-black-swan-of-2016","url_meta":{"origin":32231,"position":5},"title":"Saudi Arabia: black swan of 2016","author":"Michel Santi","date":"January 14, 2016","format":false,"excerpt":"The Angolan kwanza collapsed by 15% in a few hours as soon as the country\u2019s authorities effected its devaluation a few days ago. Last month it was Azerbaijan\u2019s currency, the manat, which lost a third of its value in a few hours when its national central bank decided to abandon\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Oil&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Oil","link":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/category\/oil"},"img":{"alt_text":"P\u00e9trole","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/P%C3%A9trole-1-267x300-267x300.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"amp_enabled":true,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32231","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=32231"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32231\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":32239,"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32231\/revisions\/32239"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=32231"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=32231"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=32231"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}