From the Pump to the Ballot Box<\/strong><\/p>\nFor that is the weapon Tehran wields so skillfully.<\/p>\n
While a drone\u2019s military range is measured in kilometers, the political reach of Iranian action is measured in dollars at the pump and seats in Congress.<\/p>\n
That is why Tehran is multiplying the routes along which the cost of war can reach America. Before the conflict, about 20 percent of the world\u2019s oil and liquefied natural gas passed through Hormuz; its closure therefore made the Yanbu\u2013Bab el-Mandeb\u2013Suez axis vital. There is no need to block every route: simply reminding the world that none is invulnerable is enough to raise freight costs, insurance premiums and the price of a barrel.<\/p>\n
Yet the price of a gallon does not cast a ballot. Voters may blame Tehran, Israel, the oil companies or the White House; employment, inflation and the president\u2019s counter-narrative matter too. These figures therefore do not establish electoral causality: they reveal the ground on which it can be built.<\/p>\n
Iran does not decide how Americans vote. It is trying to alter the conditions\u2014and the price\u2014of their vote.<\/p>\n
A Lever Under Imperfect Control<\/strong><\/p>\nThe wager is fragile because Tehran is not the only player. Israel is running on a different clock and will reject any agreement that reopens Hormuz without neutralizing Iran\u2019s capabilities. Iran may influence America\u2019s timetable, but it does not control Israel\u2019s.<\/p>\n
This is what Thomas Schelling called \u201cthe threat that leaves something to chance\u201d: each side increases the risk without controlling every actor. Nor do the talks contradict this logic, because raising the risk and then offering to reduce it turns coercion into leverage.<\/p>\n
Tehran has demonstrated that it can neither win this war nor control its risks. But beware: the Iranians have identified the strange center of gravity of the world\u2019s foremost military power three months before an election.<\/p>\n
Iran\u2019s most effective projectile may never strike an American base. It may complete its trajectory in the form of a ballot.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\u2026or How Tehran Turns Oil into an Electoral Weapon Iran does not need to defeat the United States on the battlefield. It need only make the price of war travel all the way to the American gas pump\u2014and then to the polls on November 3. In forty-eight hours, the oil market summed up the…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"give_campaign_id":0,"_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_wpcom_ai_launchpad_first_post":false,"mc4wp_mailchimp_campaign":[],"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"{title}\n\n{excerpt}\n\n{url}","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"_wpas_customize_per_network":false,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[648943415,648943416],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-32013","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-oil-prices","category-u-s-midterm-elections"],"yoast_head":"\n
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As for Western consumption, its slight progress is owed more to a further drop in inflation indices than to an increase in salaries and revenues that is\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "emerging markets"","block_context":{"text":"emerging markets","link":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/category\/emerging-markets"},"img":{"alt_text":"p\u00e9trole","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/p%C3%A9trole-300x187-300x187.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":23025,"url":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/oil-price-cap\/checkmate-for-russia","url_meta":{"origin":32013,"position":4},"title":"Checkmate for Russia?","author":"Michel Santi","date":"September 10, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"\u00a0 The oil price cap decided a few days ago by the G7 is an original, unprecedented measure to be taken very seriously. The member countries of this exclusive club will therefore refuse to buy its oil from Russia at a price that will exceed a certain level which will\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "oil price cap"","block_context":{"text":"oil price cap","link":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/category\/oil-price-cap"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/g-7.webp?fit=1200%2C768&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/g-7.webp?fit=1200%2C768&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/g-7.webp?fit=1200%2C768&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/g-7.webp?fit=1200%2C768&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/g-7.webp?fit=1200%2C768&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":19136,"url":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/oil\/saudi-arabia-is-no-longer-too-big-to-fail","url_meta":{"origin":32013,"position":5},"title":"Saudi Arabia is no longer \u2018too big to fail\u2019","author":"Michel Santi","date":"December 5, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"Is Saudi Arabia still an important partner to the US? The question answers itself, at least partially, with the Middle East having drastically changed since the strategic and fundamental alliance made in 1943 by President Franklin Roosevelt and King Abdulaziz Ibn Saud. It\u2019s now a distant time when FDR boldly,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Oil"","block_context":{"text":"Oil","link":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/category\/oil"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/MBS.jpg?fit=750%2C375&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/MBS.jpg?fit=750%2C375&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/MBS.jpg?fit=750%2C375&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/MBS.jpg?fit=750%2C375&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]}],"amp_enabled":true,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32013","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=32013"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32013\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":32030,"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32013\/revisions\/32030"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=32013"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=32013"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=32013"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
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