{"id":31653,"date":"2026-05-19T19:57:24","date_gmt":"2026-05-19T17:57:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/?p=31653"},"modified":"2026-05-19T19:57:24","modified_gmt":"2026-05-19T17:57:24","slug":"hormuz","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/balance-of-power\/hormuz","title":{"rendered":"Hormuz, or the End of a Fable"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\"\"<\/h2>\n

Why the Strait Obeys None of the \u201cLaws\u201d of the Last Five Centuries \u2014 and Why 2026 Proves It<\/h2>\n

From my window in Muscat, I count the anchorage lights.<\/p>\n

On March 2, 2026, the Revolutionary Guards announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz<\/span><\/span>.<\/p>\n

Six weeks later, twenty thousand sailors are still stranded aboard two thousand ships. Brent crude has surged by 65 percent in a single month, while the island of Larak \u2014 rechristened \u201cTehran\u2019s Toll Booth\u201d by Lloyd\u2019s List \u2014 is charging two million dollars per transit, payable in yuan or stablecoins.<\/p>\n

International law formally prohibits the closure of a navigational strait. Yet in Hormuz, law has never carried much weight.<\/p>\n

From the Omani coast, I keep hearing that nothing has changed in five centuries.<\/p>\n

In a remarkable investigation published in New Lines Magazine<\/a><\/span>, Amelia Hankins lays out the chronology:<\/p>\n

Albuquerque, in 1507, had the cannons without the land.<\/p>\n

Abbas, in 1622, had the land without the fleet \u2014 and Abbas prevailed.<\/p>\n

Beginning in 1820, the British imposed their maritime order by inventing piracy.<\/p>\n

Iran, today, would impose its own by turning the strait into a toll gate.<\/p>\n

Whoever controls the land controls the passage, correct?<\/p>\n

Elegant.\u00a0But false.<\/p>\n

\n

The Day a Fleet Settled the Matter<\/h2>\n

On April 18, 1988, Operation Praying Mantis<\/span><\/span> destroyed roughly half of Iran\u2019s naval capability within hours: two oil platforms, the frigate Sahand<\/em>, a patrol vessel, and several fast attack boats.<\/p>\n

Three months later, Tehran accepted United Nations Resolution 598 and signed a ceasefire with Baghdad. A naval power, without holding a single piece of territory in the Gulf, had settled a strait conflict.<\/p>\n

Brutally. Decisively. In a single day.<\/p>\n

Five centuries of repetition do not prove a law, but a habit. And habits change the moment someone has an interest in changing them.<\/p>\n

\n

What Geography Does Not Decide<\/h2>\n

In Hormuz, the real variable has never been land versus sea.<\/p>\n

It has always been this: who can impose on the other a price greater than what he himself is willing to pay.<\/p>\n

The Portuguese did not lose for lack of territory, but because their taxation strangled merchants far more than the Safavids ever did.<\/p>\n

Abbas prevailed in 1622 not because he controlled the coastline, but because he successfully turned the English against the Dutch by monetizing the silk of Isfahan. The Dutch would learn this at their expense in 1645, when their first blockade of the strait collapsed over Abbas II\u2019s simple refusal to grant them an audience.<\/p>\n

The Qawasim, in 1819\u20131820, yielded not because of maritime inferiority, but because London financed a narrative \u2014 Arab piracy \u2014 powerful enough to rally the littoral powers, including Oman<\/span><\/span>.<\/p>\n

Each time, the strait fell to whoever could impose an unbearable bill upon the other side.<\/p>\n

Geography was scenery. Price was the plot.<\/p>\n

\n

2026: Three Ruptures, No Fatality<\/h2>\n

Washington is not acting today as it did in 1988 because some timeless law is once again asserting itself.<\/p>\n

The Americans hesitate because:<\/p>\n

I. Tehran Has Acquired What It Previously Lacked<\/h3>\n

Namely, precision ballistic missiles in significant quantities.<\/p>\n

Where Praying Mantis cost a handful of aircraft and three sailors, an equivalent operation today would expose Al Udeid, Al Dhafra, the aircraft carriers of the Fifth Fleet, and Tel Aviv to missile salvos that Gulf air defenses could intercept only partially.<\/p>\n

Forty years later, the same decision would cost one hundred times more \u2014 and everyone knows it.<\/p>\n

II. China Has Become the Shock Absorber<\/h3>\n

Before the crisis, China was purchasing 90 percent of Iranian oil. It now finances its circumvention through Pakistani ports.<\/p>\n

From my window, I can see the direct consequence: Duqm, Salalah, and Sohar, where drone strikes are multiplying because these Omani terminals have become the system\u2019s pressure valve.<\/p>\n

The toll is collected in yuan.<\/p>\n

In 1988, nobody absorbed the shock on Tehran\u2019s behalf. In 2026, someone does \u2014 and that fact alone changes the equation.<\/p>\n

III. American Political Time Has Collapsed<\/h3>\n

Where Ronald Reagan<\/span><\/span> could withstand six months of confrontation without collapsing in the polls, Donald Trump<\/span><\/span> no longer enjoys that luxury.<\/p>\n

Iran \u2014 fully aware of this \u2014 is playing for time, much as Abbas refused the English carriage in 1621 to demonstrate that time was on his side.<\/p>\n

As for the \u201cProject Freedom\u201d announced from Washington to escort cargo ships by force, it will fail \u2014 not for lack of territory, but for lack of patience.<\/p>\n

\n

What One Sees from Muscat<\/h2>\n

Oman<\/span><\/span> occupies the role it has almost always held: mediator, ambiguous actor, indispensable intermediary.<\/p>\n

The Sultanate maintains a diplomatic channel between Washington and Tehran while simultaneously enduring strikes intended to shut down its bypass ports.<\/p>\n

From the Muttrah Corniche, I can perceive what long-term historical frameworks conceal.<\/p>\n

The Strait of Hormuz functions like a market in which every actor reassesses, in each crisis, the cost of closure against the value of reopening.<\/p>\n

Only volatile parameters \u2014 weapons systems, alliances, currencies, electoral calendars \u2014 decide.<\/p>\n

Hankins concludes her account with the wives of pearl divers throwing stones into the sea and plunging living cats into the water so that their men might be returned alive.<\/p>\n

Today, it is Filipinos, Georgians, Ukrainians, and Egyptians calling the International Transport Workers\u2019 Federation at three in the morning whenever they manage to catch a signal.<\/p>\n

The ritual has changed.\u00a0The distress has not.\u00a0The only true winner?<\/p>\n

Surely the cold calculation of what each side is prepared to lose.<\/p>\n

\n

The Comfort of Fables<\/h2>\n

Geographical fables are comforting because they spare us the burden of thinking.<\/p>\n

Does Hormuz obey a five-century law?<\/p>\n

Very well \u2014 let us spare ourselves the analysis of missiles, yuan, and electoral calendars. Let us simply conclude that the toll must be negotiated, and move on.<\/p>\n

But if Hormuz obeys nothing except a balance of power renegotiated by every generation, then the question once again becomes what it has always been \u2014 political, and therefore terrifying.<\/p>\n

At what price?\u00a0Against whom?\u00a0How far?<\/p>\n

From my window, the ships are waiting.<\/p>\n

Not for the repetition of the past.\u00a0Only for someone, somewhere, to set a price.<\/p>\n

\n

View from the heights of Jebel Harim (around 2,000 m), the highest point of the Musandam Peninsula \u2014 an Omani exclave separated from the rest of the sultanate by the United Arab Emirates. In the distance, the Strait of Hormuz separates the Arabian coast from Iran’s Hormozgan mountains, some 30 km away.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n

<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Why the Strait Obeys None of the \u201cLaws\u201d of the Last Five Centuries \u2014 and Why 2026 Proves It From my window in Muscat, I count the anchorage lights. On March 2, 2026, the Revolutionary Guards announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. 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The staggering distortions experienced by\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economic Power Shift"","block_context":{"text":"Economic Power Shift","link":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/category\/economic-power-shift"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/123152177-us-dollar-and-yuan-banknote-on-usa-and-china-flags-its-is-symbol-for-tariff-trade-war-crisis.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/123152177-us-dollar-and-yuan-banknote-on-usa-and-china-flags-its-is-symbol-for-tariff-trade-war-crisis.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/123152177-us-dollar-and-yuan-banknote-on-usa-and-china-flags-its-is-symbol-for-tariff-trade-war-crisis.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/123152177-us-dollar-and-yuan-banknote-on-usa-and-china-flags-its-is-symbol-for-tariff-trade-war-crisis.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/123152177-us-dollar-and-yuan-banknote-on-usa-and-china-flags-its-is-symbol-for-tariff-trade-war-crisis.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":31490,"url":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/strait-of-hormuz\/ormuz","url_meta":{"origin":31653,"position":1},"title":"Suffocation of the global economy","author":"Michel Santi","date":"April 12, 2026","format":false,"excerpt":"\u00a0 In the Persian Gulf, a thirty-three-kilometre corridor shapes the lives of eight billion human beings. Twenty million barrels of oil pass through it every day \u2014 20 per cent of global consumption, according to the EIA \u2014 along with a fifth of the world's liquefied natural gas trade. The\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Energy blockade"","block_context":{"text":"Energy blockade","link":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/category\/energy-blockade"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/cascade-Ormuz.jpeg?fit=1200%2C548&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/cascade-Ormuz.jpeg?fit=1200%2C548&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/cascade-Ormuz.jpeg?fit=1200%2C548&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/cascade-Ormuz.jpeg?fit=1200%2C548&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/cascade-Ormuz.jpeg?fit=1200%2C548&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":19855,"url":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/us-sanction\/sanctions-are-testaments-of-american-supremacy","url_meta":{"origin":31653,"position":2},"title":"Sanctions are testaments of American supremacy","author":"Michel Santi","date":"January 14, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"\u00a0 Contrary to popular belief, it\u2019s not the weapon of the dollar that makes US sanctions against a country inescapable. The Greenback is of course the reserve currency par excellence on the global scale and naturally accounts for the American hegemony. However, doing business in another currency \u2013 for the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "US sanction"","block_context":{"text":"US sanction","link":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/category\/us-sanction"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/us-sanctions.jpg?fit=1000%2C486&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/us-sanctions.jpg?fit=1000%2C486&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/us-sanctions.jpg?fit=1000%2C486&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/us-sanctions.jpg?fit=1000%2C486&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":29152,"url":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/deficit\/deficits-financial-stability","url_meta":{"origin":31653,"position":3},"title":"Hey, Mr. Trump","author":"Michel Santi","date":"May 4, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"In yesterday\u2019s world, the dominance of the dollar amounted to a Faustian dilemma: the United States could indeed finance itself cheaply, but at the cost of dependence on foreign entities, ultimately leading to its decline. A traditional definition of a reserve currency is that the country issuing it must run\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "deficit"","block_context":{"text":"deficit","link":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/category\/deficit"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Mr.-Trump.jpg?fit=1200%2C600&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Mr.-Trump.jpg?fit=1200%2C600&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Mr.-Trump.jpg?fit=1200%2C600&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Mr.-Trump.jpg?fit=1200%2C600&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Mr.-Trump.jpg?fit=1200%2C600&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":21437,"url":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/china\/why-nations-prosper","url_meta":{"origin":31653,"position":4},"title":"Why nations prosper","author":"Michel Santi","date":"June 19, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"\u00a0 \u00a0 Demographics are an indicator of the long-term destiny of a nation, and at the same time demonstrate the current mood of its citizens. Having abolished the only-child regime in 2016 to encourage families to have a second, China now even implicitly tolerates a third child across certain regions\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "China"","block_context":{"text":"China","link":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/category\/china"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/06\/Deng-Xiaoping-226x300.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":30742,"url":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/sovereignty\/japan-an-ally-with-no-voice-and-no-choice","url_meta":{"origin":31653,"position":5},"title":"Japan: an ally with no voice and no choice","author":"Michel Santi","date":"December 1, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Caught between China\u2019s rise and America\u2019s decline, Tokyo is losing its strategic autonomy. A crushing dependence The regional dynamics are stark and undeniable.In thirty years, Japan\u2019s share of global GDP has fallen from 14% to 4%.During that same period, China rose from 2% to 18% of world GDP, becoming today\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Geopolitical rivalry"","block_context":{"text":"Geopolitical rivalry","link":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/category\/geopolitical-rivalry"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/japan-middle.png?fit=800%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/japan-middle.png?fit=800%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/japan-middle.png?fit=800%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/japan-middle.png?fit=800%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]}],"amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31653","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=31653"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31653\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":31660,"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31653\/revisions\/31660"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/31657"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=31653"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=31653"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=31653"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}