{"id":31541,"date":"2026-04-25T19:25:28","date_gmt":"2026-04-25T17:25:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/?p=31541"},"modified":"2026-04-25T19:26:15","modified_gmt":"2026-04-25T17:26:15","slug":"tesla","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/overvaluation\/tesla","title":{"rendered":"Tesla: When the Numbers Dismantle the Narrative"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/p>\n

\n

The electric car manufacturer posted results above expectations. But the analysis reveals eroding profitability, abandoned promises, and a $1.4 trillion valuation that defies logic.<\/p>\n

\n

Markets cheered. After publishing its quarterly results, Tesla saw its stock jump 7%. A perfect \u201cdouble beat\u201d: revenue and earnings above forecasts. Yet behind this euphoria lies a far less reassuring accounting reality.<\/p>\n

Illusory profitability<\/strong><\/p>\n

Tesla reports $0.41 earnings per share in \u201cadjusted\u201d figures. But these figures exclude more than $1 billion in stock-based compensation \u2014 a very real expense that dilutes existing shareholders.<\/p>\n

Under standard accounting, the one that really matters, net income stands at $477 million on $22.4 billion in revenue. That is a margin of 2.1%. A figure to put into perspective: General Motors posts 5.2%, Toyota exceeds 8%, Ford holds around 6%. The disruptor supposed to revolutionize the auto industry generates less profit than the \u201cdinosaurs\u201d it claims to make obsolete.<\/p>\n

With a $1.4 trillion market capitalization, Tesla trades at 150 times its real earnings. Toyota trades at 10 times, Apple at 28 times. Even for a technology growth stock, the multiple appears absurd.<\/p>\n

The betrayal of Full Self-Driving<\/strong><\/p>\n

On April 22, Elon Musk dropped a statement that amounts to an admission: \u201cHardware 3 simply does not have the capacity to achieve unsupervised autonomous driving. I wish it did.\u201d<\/p>\n

Four million Teslas are running on this Hardware 3. Hundreds of thousands of owners paid between $8,000 and $15,000 for the famous FSD, based on a promise repeated for seven years: the onboard hardware was sufficient, only software updates were missing.<\/p>\n

That is false. Hardware 3 has memory bandwidth eight times lower than Hardware 4 deployed since late 2023. This limitation is hardware-based, irreversible. Impossible to fix with software.<\/p>\n

Tesla offers two solutions: a trade-in with a discount to buy a new vehicle, or a retrofit in specialized \u201cmicro-factories\u201d capable of processing one thousand vehicles per day. At that pace, it would take eleven years to upgrade the existing fleet.<\/p>\n

According to internal documents revealed by Reuters, 285,000 owners purchased FSD on Hardware 3 vehicles. At $10,000 per package, legal exposure reaches $2.85 billion. A class action filed in 2022 in California, still pending, could open the door to claims.<\/p>\n

The FSD v14.3 version, supposed to bring extended supervised autonomous driving, has just been pushed back to the fourth quarter of 2026. This date has already been delayed five times since the initial announcement in 2020.<\/p>\n

The automotive business falters<\/strong><\/p>\n

Car sales, the group\u2019s historical core, are showing worrying signs. Tesla reports 50,000 unsold vehicles in inventory in the first quarter, or 27 days of inventory \u2014 unseen since 2019.<\/p>\n

In California, a key market historically representing 30% of U.S. sales, registrations have dropped 24.3% year over year. Tesla\u2019s market share in California electric vehicles has fallen from 9.2% to 7.7% in twelve months.<\/p>\n

To clear inventory, the group had to grant average discounts of $6,200 per vehicle, compared to $2,100 a year earlier. This price war mechanically compresses margins, already under pressure.<\/p>\n

At the same time, investments are soaring. Announced at $20 billion in March during Investor Day, they were revised to $25 billion in April \u2014 $5 billion more in three weeks, without detailed explanation. The CFO warned: \u201cWe anticipate negative free cash flow for quarters 2 to 4 of 2026.\u201d In this context, a capital increase becomes difficult to rule out.<\/p>\n

Robotaxis: promise versus reality<\/strong><\/p>\n

Tesla\u2019s valuation largely rests on two promises: autonomous driving and the deployment of a robotaxi fleet generating massive recurring revenues. Let\u2019s confront this promise with reality.<\/p>\n

Waymo, a subsidiary of Alphabet and the only player offering a commercial robotaxi service, completed 15 million paid rides in 2025 and drove 127 million miles in real-world conditions. The service operates in four U.S. metropolitan areas. Valuation after its last funding round: $126 billion.<\/p>\n

Tesla, for its part, shows zero billed commercial rides, zero miles in deployed robotaxi service. Prototypes have been presented at private events, but no public access exists.<\/p>\n

A conservative valuation, based on discounted future cash flows and generously incorporating robotaxi, energy, and services projects, would place Tesla\u2019s intrinsic value around $65 per share. The stock trades at $387. The gap is 1 to 6.<\/p>\n

A story that never materializes<\/strong><\/p>\n

Markets tolerate missed promises when fundamentals remain solid. Tesla has neither. Profitability is deteriorating, technological commitments are broken, market share is declining, and cash is tightening.<\/p>\n

What investors are paying for at $1.4 trillion is neither a profitable car company nor a proven technology. It is a story whose promised chapters never materialize, backed by fundamentals that are visibly eroding, quarter after quarter.<\/p>\n

The question is no longer whether Tesla is worth its valuation. It is how much longer the market will accept paying for thin air.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The electric car manufacturer posted results above expectations. But the analysis reveals eroding profitability, abandoned promises, and a $1.4 trillion valuation that defies logic. Markets cheered. After publishing its quarterly results, Tesla saw its stock jump 7%. A perfect \u201cdouble beat\u201d: revenue and earnings above forecasts. Yet behind this euphoria lies a far less reassuring…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":31543,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"give_campaign_id":0,"_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"mc4wp_mailchimp_campaign":[],"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"{title}\n\n{excerpt}\n\n{url}","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"_wpas_customize_per_network":false,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[648943301,648943299,648943300],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-31541","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-broken-promises","category-overvaluation","category-profitability"],"yoast_head":"\nTesla: When the Numbers Dismantle the Narrative - Michel Santi<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/overvaluation\/tesla\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Tesla: When the Numbers Dismantle the Narrative - Michel Santi\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The electric car manufacturer posted results above expectations. 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It\u2019s not surprising that, in such a situation, global cash is drying up internationally since it goes without\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "emerging markets"","block_context":{"text":"emerging markets","link":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/category\/emerging-markets"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/dollar.png?fit=640%2C300&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/dollar.png?fit=640%2C300&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/dollar.png?fit=640%2C300&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":13621,"url":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/inequality\/the-pernicious-effects-of-corporate-bonuses","url_meta":{"origin":31541,"position":3},"title":"The pernicious effects of corporate bonuses","author":"Michel Santi","date":"May 14, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"The cash bonuses, stock options, pensions and mega salaries received by corporate executives are clearly a wealth transfer mechanism. In this regard, the Euro 300,000 annual pension to be paid to Philippe Varin, departing CEO of PSA Peugeot Citro\u00ebn, pales in comparison to the remuneration of the great American bosses.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "inequality"","block_context":{"text":"inequality","link":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/category\/inequality"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":19447,"url":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/china-2\/the-trade-war-wont-happen","url_meta":{"origin":31541,"position":4},"title":"The trade war won\u2019t happen!","author":"Michel Santi","date":"May 21, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"\u00a0 China is not a bellicose nation. For it, war is a matter of developing excessive trading relationships. Put another way, for China,the defence of its economic interests is an extension of war. As for its nuclear option in the context of this trade war with the USA, it would\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "China"","block_context":{"text":"China","link":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/category\/china-2"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/05\/guerre-commerciale-300x180.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":13657,"url":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/central-banks\/you-dont-know-it-but-youre-doing-very-well","url_meta":{"origin":31541,"position":5},"title":"You don\u2019t know it but you\u2019re doing very well !","author":"Michel Santi","date":"November 25, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"The Venezuelan stock market has rocketed up by 200% this year and finds itself sitting atop global stock markets in terms of this exceptional performance. Is this to say that Venezuela is enjoying exceptional growth and that its positive repercussions are being felt by its people? Far from it in\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "capitalism"","block_context":{"text":"capitalism","link":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/category\/capitalism"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31541","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=31541"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31541\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":31548,"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31541\/revisions\/31548"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/31543"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=31541"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=31541"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=31541"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}