{"id":31490,"date":"2026-04-12T19:34:07","date_gmt":"2026-04-12T17:34:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/?p=31490"},"modified":"2026-04-12T19:34:07","modified_gmt":"2026-04-12T17:34:07","slug":"ormuz","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/strait-of-hormuz\/ormuz","title":{"rendered":"Suffocation of the global economy"},"content":{"rendered":"
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In the Persian Gulf, a thirty-three-kilometre corridor shapes the lives of eight billion human beings. Twenty million barrels of oil pass through it every day \u2014 20 per cent of global consumption, according to the EIA \u2014 along with a fifth of the world’s liquefied natural gas trade. The global shock of such a blockade would exceed the pressure it places on Iran.<\/p>\n

Reducing Hormuz to crude oil would be a framing error. Hormuz is not a tap, but the logistical backbone of the industrialised world \u2014 through which flow food, in the form of nitrogen-based fertilisers synthesised from Qatari gas; medicine, in the form of petrochemical molecules used in virtually all modern pharmaceuticals; and jet fuel, without which aircraft remain grounded.<\/p>\n

A blockade would trigger a physical, simultaneous shortage within weeks, resulting in food supply disruptions, grounded fleets, factory shutdowns, and hospital rationing.<\/p>\n

For scale, the 1973 Arab embargo removed 5 per cent of global supply \u2014 and was enough to trigger a worldwide recession. A blockade of Hormuz represents a shock four to five times greater, in an economy incomparably more interconnected. The diagram below traces the cascade mechanics, from chokepoint to deficit, from escalation to strategic trap.<\/p>\n

A confrontation no one controls<\/strong><\/p>\n

Article 38 of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea guarantees the right of transit passage through international straits. Blocking a Chinese or Indian tanker would not be an economic pressure measure, but a direct violation of the maritime sovereignty of nuclear powers.<\/p>\n

China, like India, imports 40 per cent of its oil from the Gulf. Beijing maintains warships in the area and naval access agreements with Oman, with Pakistan, with Djibouti. Accepting that a Chinese commercial vessel can be stopped by the US Navy in international waters would validate the precedent of American control over Chinese navigation \u2014 including, tomorrow, in the Taiwan Strait. No Chinese leader will ever tolerate it. Should China decide to pre-emptively escort its tankers, the US Navy would then have to choose between opening fire and stepping aside.<\/p>\n

In 1988, the cruiser USS Vincennes shot down an Iran Air Airbus \u2014 290 civilians killed \u2014 after mistaking it for an F-14 fighter, in a context of far lower tensions. It is in this saturated space that escalation would play out \u2014 not in capitals. Who can rule out the nervous commander, the vessel that fails to comply, the warning shot that goes wrong?<\/p>\n

The trap<\/strong><\/p>\n

The threat of a blockade places Washington in a dilemma. Carried out, it triggers a global crisis in which America is both the author and one of the first victims. Withdrawn, it durably weakens American deterrence.<\/p>\n

Thirty-three kilometres of water. No way out without damage.<\/p>\n

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  In the Persian Gulf, a thirty-three-kilometre corridor shapes the lives of eight billion human beings. Twenty million barrels of oil pass through it every day \u2014 20 per cent of global consumption, according to the EIA \u2014 along with a fifth of the world’s liquefied natural gas trade. The global shock of such a…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":31492,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"give_campaign_id":0,"_crdt_document":"","_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"mc4wp_mailchimp_campaign":[],"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"_wpas_customize_per_network":false},"categories":[648943287,648943288,648943286,648943289],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-31490","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-energy-blockade","category-naval-escalation","category-strait-of-hormuz","category-strategic-trap"],"yoast_head":"\nSuffocation of the global economy - Michel Santi<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/strait-of-hormuz\/ormuz\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Suffocation of the global economy - Michel Santi\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"  In the Persian Gulf, a thirty-three-kilometre corridor shapes the lives of eight billion human beings. 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The Financial Times put it in black and white at the end of 2025: Europe\u2019s leading\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Deindustrialization"","block_context":{"text":"Deindustrialization","link":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/category\/deindustrialization"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/europe-allemagne.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/europe-allemagne.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/europe-allemagne.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/europe-allemagne.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":30966,"url":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/structural-instability\/the-world-on-leverage-geopolitics-at-its-minsky-moment","url_meta":{"origin":31490,"position":3},"title":"The World on Leverage: Geopolitics at Its Minsky Moment","author":"Michel Santi","date":"January 18, 2026","format":false,"excerpt":"The world never enters its great catastrophes by stumbling into disorder.It slides into them, carried by the opposite illusion: that of stability. Hyman Minsky grasped this paradox at the heart of financial systems: the longer an order endures, the more it endangers itself. Safety breeds risk-taking; risk-taking becomes the norm;\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Structural instability"","block_context":{"text":"Structural instability","link":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/category\/structural-instability"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/monde-perdition.png?fit=800%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/monde-perdition.png?fit=800%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/monde-perdition.png?fit=800%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/monde-perdition.png?fit=800%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":26514,"url":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/neoliberalism\/the-return-of-sick-man-of-europe","url_meta":{"origin":31490,"position":4},"title":"The return of sick man of Europe","author":"Michel Santi","date":"July 13, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"\u00a0 In an environment where the German economy is extraordinarily energy-intensive, while the dogmatic policies of the Greens dramatically penalize all economic actors, company bankruptcies are reaching record and frightening levels in a Germany that is literally on the path to deindustrialization. \u00a0 Merkel will have many accounts to settle\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "neoliberalism"","block_context":{"text":"neoliberalism","link":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/category\/neoliberalism"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/GSRaBmbXgAA9Iu6.jpg?fit=1200%2C678&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/GSRaBmbXgAA9Iu6.jpg?fit=1200%2C678&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/GSRaBmbXgAA9Iu6.jpg?fit=1200%2C678&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/GSRaBmbXgAA9Iu6.jpg?fit=1200%2C678&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/GSRaBmbXgAA9Iu6.jpg?fit=1200%2C678&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":31362,"url":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/sanctions-circumvention\/the-west-has-made-oil-uncontrollable","url_meta":{"origin":31490,"position":5},"title":"The West Has Made Oil Uncontrollable","author":"Michel Santi","date":"March 24, 2026","format":false,"excerpt":"In seeking to cap Russian oil prices, the G7 set in motion a series of dynamics it no longer fully controls: sanctions evasion, reconfigured trade flows, more rigid demand, and financial fragmentation. The oil market has entered a more unstable phase, where traditional regulatory tools are losing effectiveness. A Sophisticated\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Energy sovereignty"","block_context":{"text":"Energy sovereignty","link":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/category\/energy-sovereignty"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/petrole.png?fit=800%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/petrole.png?fit=800%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/petrole.png?fit=800%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/petrole.png?fit=800%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]}],"amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31490","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=31490"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31490\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":31494,"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31490\/revisions\/31494"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/31492"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=31490"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=31490"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=31490"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}