![\"\"](\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/desert-industriel.png?resize=1024%2C1024&ssl=1\")
<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
France returns to a trade surplus \u2014 and it is anything but a victory.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n A Pyrrhic victory, the symbol of an economy running out of steam.<\/strong><\/p>\n For the first time in nearly a decade, France is posting a trade surplus. Figures released by Insee on January 30 show a surplus of between \u20ac5.1 and \u20ac5.4 billion in the fourth quarter of 2025. Yet this is nothing more than a flash in the pan in an industrial desert, because it does not signal a recovery but rather a country slowly suffocating.<\/p>\n A surplus driven by stronger exports is a strength; a surplus driven by weaker imports is a weakness. When it stems from dynamic exports, it reflects conquest. When it results from faltering consumption, it signals retreat. Such an economy no longer wins markets \u2014 it invests less and, ultimately, lives less.<\/p>\n Exports did hold up. Up 0.9% in the fourth quarter, they were supported by a few champions: Airbus, with 793 aircraft delivered in 2025, along with shipbuilding, defense, and a nuclear sector finally back on track. Yet these engines alone cannot explain the turnaround.<\/p>\n The truth is that imports collapsed by \u20131.7%. Because France is buying less. Because it can afford less.<\/p>\n Household consumption is stagnating, investment is losing momentum, and companies \u2014 instead of investing \u2014 are running down their inventories. A harsh reality undermines this headline surplus: purchasing power eroded by inflation, unstable taxation, business leaders paralyzed by uncertainty. Spending is postponed, decisions delayed, expectations lowered. The result? Fewer purchases from abroad.<\/p>\n Ultimately, France is not exporting more; it is simply importing less. This surplus, born of weakness rather than strength, is a symptom of decline, not a sign of health.<\/p>\n It reveals an uncomfortable truth: France\u2019s productive apparatus is in tatters. Crushing production costs, Kafkaesque regulation, unpredictable taxation, shortages of skilled labor, chronic underinvestment\u2026 For twenty years, France has been losing market share in almost every manufacturing sector. Deindustrialization is no longer a risk \u2014 it is a reality.<\/p>\n A handful of champions \u2014 aerospace, luxury goods, energy \u2014 mask an exhausted industrial base. But when those sectors slow, there is no backup. The fourth-quarter surplus fixes nothing; it merely conceals the problem.<\/p>\n As always, services are saving the day. Tourism, finance, consulting, and digital services generated a \u20ac54 billion surplus in 2025. Yet this intangible rent does not offset the industrial hemorrhage. The deficit in manufactured goods remains staggering (\u20ac65 billion), making France the only major eurozone economy to run a chronic trade deficit.<\/p>\n Services are merely a band-aid. Fewer factories mean fewer skilled jobs, fewer diversified exports, and greater exposure to external shocks. An economy that no longer produces is an economy that no longer decides.<\/p>\n This improvement could vanish tomorrow. If consumption rebounds, imports will surge. If energy prices rise, the bill will explode. Meanwhile, American protectionism \u2014 with tariffs targeting aerospace, luxury goods, or automobiles \u2014 threatens precisely the few sectors where France remains competitive.<\/p>\n Customs data are unequivocal: in December 2025, the goods deficit widened to \u2013\u20ac4.2 billion. Rising purchases of industrial components and imported consumer goods \u2014 textiles, electronics, equipment \u2014 highlight France\u2019s persistent dependence on foreign supply chains. In other words, France continues to buy abroad what it no longer produces sufficiently at home.<\/p>\n This quarter is not a turning point but a warning. A surplus generated by shrinking imports is not the sign of a stronger economy, but of stifled demand and an industrial base that has grown too narrow.<\/p>\n The recovery will not come from accounting miracles but from a fundamental overhaul:<\/p>\n \u2022 Restart productive investment, with targeted tax incentives and regulatory stability. The choice is simple: continue celebrating incidental surpluses born of stagnation, or rebuild a competitiveness capable of generating surpluses through the strength of production. Until that shift occurs, surpluses will remain mirages \u2014 and deficits the lasting mark of a France that has resigned itself to its industrial fate.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" France returns to a trade surplus \u2014 and it is anything but a victory. A Pyrrhic victory, the symbol of an economy running out of steam. For the first time in nearly a decade, France is posting a trade surplus. Figures released by Insee on January 30 show a surplus of between \u20ac5.1 and \u20ac5.4…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":31087,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"give_campaign_id":0,"_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"mc4wp_mailchimp_campaign":[],"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"{title}\n\n{excerpt}\n\n{url}","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"_wpas_customize_per_network":false,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[648943161,648943160,648943162],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-31090","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-deindustrialization","category-imports","category-trade-balance"],"yoast_head":"\n
\nA \u201cmiracle\u201d born of weakness, not competitiveness<\/h3>\n
\nFrench industry: a giant with feet of clay<\/h3>\n
\nServices: the last bulwark of a struggling economy<\/h3>\n
\nA fleeting surplus, and very real risks<\/h3>\n
\nThe real diagnosis: rebuild or disappear<\/h3>\n
\u2022 Simplify the business environment so companies dare to produce and hire again.
\u2022 Reindustrialize by supporting innovation and helping SMEs export.
\u2022 Stop deluding ourselves: an economy that no longer produces is an economy that depends. Sooner or later, it will pay the price for that weakness.<\/p>\n