{"id":30742,"date":"2025-12-01T10:50:11","date_gmt":"2025-12-01T09:50:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/?p=30742"},"modified":"2025-12-01T10:53:44","modified_gmt":"2025-12-01T09:53:44","slug":"japan-an-ally-with-no-voice-and-no-choice","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/sovereignty\/japan-an-ally-with-no-voice-and-no-choice","title":{"rendered":"Japan: an ally with no voice and no choice"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/p>\n

\n

Caught between China\u2019s rise and America\u2019s decline, Tokyo is losing its strategic autonomy.<\/p>\n

A crushing dependence<\/strong><\/p>\n


The regional dynamics are stark and undeniable.
In thirty years, Japan\u2019s share of global GDP has fallen from 14% to 4%.
During that same period, China rose from 2% to 18% of world GDP, becoming today Japan\u2019s leading trading partner and accounting for more than 20% of its exports.<\/p>\n


Despite a spectacular increase in its military budget, Japan\u2019s armed forces are still designed not to ensure the country\u2019s independence, but to operate in coordination with the United States. In fact, Japan\u2019s energy dependence on the U.S. is vital: 45% of its imported oil travels through maritime routes secured by the U.S. Navy.
In other words, Japan\u2019s strategic architecture remains that of a country that has never fully regained its autonomy.<\/p>\n

The impossible choice<\/strong><\/p>\n


The country, and its leaders, have recognized the inevitable: China\u2019s ascent is structural, just as America\u2019s decline is.
Japan\u2019s geopolitical dilemma is easy to state: the decline of its protector is far more dangerous than the rise of its rival.
Yet Japan clings to an illusory hope: that its protection will be guaranteed by Washington as long as it obeys and firmly resists Beijing.<\/p>\n


But the American withdrawal from Afghanistan offered definitive proof that cost alone now determines U.S. engagement\u2014regardless of administration. Washington withdraws, whatever the profile or loyalty of its allies.<\/p>\n

\n

A silenced voice<\/strong><\/p>\n


Here lies the tragedy: a country that has never been allowed to recover its own voice after 1945, not because of China, but because of the same country that now treats it as a bargaining chip.<\/p>\n


For Washington, Japan is less a goal than a strategic instrument.
When America\u2019s priorities are China, technological competitiveness, and reducing foreign commitments, Tokyo\u2019s are stability, diplomatic survival, and room for autonomy.<\/p>\n


This is why Japan is left wondering whether it can still survive between these two giants\u2014one of which, America, sees it not as an end but as a means, a card on the negotiating table.<\/p>\n

\n

The fatal denial<\/strong><\/p>\n


Today the country lives in a form of denial that helps it avoid confronting its existential fear: that the United States cannot protect it indefinitely, and that China\u2019s rise is irreversible.<\/p>\n


Its tragedy is not so much Chinese power as the arrival of a world in which neither the United States nor Japan is the center of gravity in Asia anymore.
It fears not so much China\u2019s strength as the prospect of a region that will soon revolve more around Beijing than around Tokyo or Washington.<\/p>\n

\n

The strategic void<\/strong><\/p>\n


But what would remain of Japan without American power?<\/p>\n


A country without a true army.
A constitution written by foreign victors.
An economy pulled between the tectonic plates of Washington and Beijing.
A diplomacy without an independent axis.<\/p>\n


Turned into a strategic outpost, Japan has seen several generations grow up learning to survive through obedience, rather than through sovereignty.<\/p>\n


Since 1945, it has never truly had the chance to choose its own path or make its own voice heard.
Not because China prevented it, but because a superpower now hesitates to see it as anything more than a bargaining chip.<\/p>\n

\n

The warning for Europe<\/strong><\/p>\n


Francis Fukuyama was right: \u201cSovereignty is measured not only by military capability, but by the ability to define one\u2019s own choices.\u201d<\/p>\n


In this sense, Japan\u2019s example should be a wake-up call for Europe.
Not to advocate any dogmatic break with the United States, but because loyalty, today, is no longer a guarantee\u2014it is a cost to be weighed.<\/p>\n


Europe must regard its sovereignty as an active lever of power, one that can neither be bought nor begged for, but built.
May the Japanese case finally pull it out of its naivety\u2014or its torpor.<\/p>\n


May it finally rewrite its own narrative, equal to the challenges of the 21st century.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Caught between China\u2019s rise and America\u2019s decline, Tokyo is losing its strategic autonomy. A crushing dependence The regional dynamics are stark and undeniable.In thirty years, Japan\u2019s share of global GDP has fallen from 14% to 4%.During that same period, China rose from 2% to 18% of world GDP, becoming today Japan\u2019s leading trading partner and…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":30745,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"give_campaign_id":0,"_crdt_document":"","_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"mc4wp_mailchimp_campaign":[],"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"_wpas_customize_per_network":false},"categories":[648943080,648943081,648943078,648943079],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30742","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-geopolitical-rivalry","category-national-autonomy","category-sovereignty","category-strategic-dependence"],"yoast_head":"\nJapan: an ally with no voice and no choice - Michel Santi<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/sovereignty\/japan-an-ally-with-no-voice-and-no-choice\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Japan: an ally with no voice and no choice - Michel Santi\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Caught between China\u2019s rise and America\u2019s decline, Tokyo is losing its strategic autonomy. A crushing dependence The regional dynamics are stark and undeniable.In thirty years, Japan\u2019s share of global GDP has fallen from 14% to 4%.During that same period, China rose from 2% to 18% of world GDP, becoming today Japan\u2019s leading trading partner and…\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/sovereignty\/japan-an-ally-with-no-voice-and-no-choice\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Michel Santi\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/michel.santi.economiste\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-12-01T09:50:11+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-12-01T09:53:44+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/japan-middle.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1024\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1536\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Michel Santi\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@michelsanti1\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@michelsanti1\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Michel Santi\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/michelsanti.fr\\\/en\\\/sovereignty\\\/japan-an-ally-with-no-voice-and-no-choice#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/michelsanti.fr\\\/en\\\/sovereignty\\\/japan-an-ally-with-no-voice-and-no-choice\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Michel Santi\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/michelsanti.fr\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/ba61ae1376925b43e3d1ddbc1e3eb2a4\"},\"headline\":\"Japan: an ally with no voice and no choice\",\"datePublished\":\"2025-12-01T09:50:11+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2025-12-01T09:53:44+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/michelsanti.fr\\\/en\\\/sovereignty\\\/japan-an-ally-with-no-voice-and-no-choice\"},\"wordCount\":665,\"commentCount\":0,\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/michelsanti.fr\\\/en\\\/sovereignty\\\/japan-an-ally-with-no-voice-and-no-choice#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/i0.wp.com\\\/michelsanti.fr\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2025\\\/12\\\/japan-middle.png?fit=1024%2C1536&ssl=1\",\"articleSection\":[\"Geopolitical rivalry\",\"National autonomy\",\"Sovereignty\",\"Strategic dependence\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/michelsanti.fr\\\/en\\\/sovereignty\\\/japan-an-ally-with-no-voice-and-no-choice#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/michelsanti.fr\\\/en\\\/sovereignty\\\/japan-an-ally-with-no-voice-and-no-choice\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/michelsanti.fr\\\/en\\\/sovereignty\\\/japan-an-ally-with-no-voice-and-no-choice\",\"name\":\"Japan: an ally with no voice and no choice - 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All signals suggesting credible parallels between today's China and Japan in the 1990s. China risks becoming an aging and heavily indebted country before it becomes a wealthy\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "China"","block_context":{"text":"China","link":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/category\/china"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/Chine-Japon.jpg?fit=1200%2C676&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/Chine-Japon.jpg?fit=1200%2C676&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/Chine-Japon.jpg?fit=1200%2C676&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/Chine-Japon.jpg?fit=1200%2C676&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/Chine-Japon.jpg?fit=1200%2C676&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":22615,"url":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/japan\/shinzo-abe-killed-for-being-a-keynesian","url_meta":{"origin":30742,"position":1},"title":"Shinzo Abe: killed for being a Keynesian","author":"Michel Santi","date":"July 10, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"\u00a0 He lifted his country out of the pacifist dogma adopted following World War Two. He contributed massively to Japan\u2019s transformation into a country careful with its geopolitical and strategic interests so it could it take up the seat it deserved at the table of global security operations. He was\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Japan"","block_context":{"text":"Japan","link":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/category\/japan"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/Shinzo-Abe.webp?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/Shinzo-Abe.webp?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/Shinzo-Abe.webp?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/Shinzo-Abe.webp?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/Shinzo-Abe.webp?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":19259,"url":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/carlos-ghosn-2\/what-the-ghosn-affair-tells-us-about-japans-judicial-system","url_meta":{"origin":30742,"position":2},"title":"What the Ghosn affair tells us about Japan\u2019s judicial system","author":"Michel Santi","date":"January 28, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"It was a mere fifty days that Carlos Ghosn had been detained, starting 19th November 2018, when he was finally allowed to appear \u2013 at his request! \u2013 before the Court in Tokyo on 8th January 2019, chained to a policeman by the waist and wearing green plastic sandals. Eight\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Carlos Ghosn"","block_context":{"text":"Carlos Ghosn","link":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/category\/carlos-ghosn-2"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/carlos-ghosn.jpg?fit=1200%2C678&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/carlos-ghosn.jpg?fit=1200%2C678&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/carlos-ghosn.jpg?fit=1200%2C678&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/carlos-ghosn.jpg?fit=1200%2C678&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/carlos-ghosn.jpg?fit=1200%2C678&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":30919,"url":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/deindustrialization\/germany-europe","url_meta":{"origin":30742,"position":3},"title":"A Broken Germany: Europe Confronts Its Economic Suicide","author":"Michel Santi","date":"January 11, 2026","format":false,"excerpt":"The year 2026 opens on a truth that no one can conceal any longer. The industrial matrix of the continent, the bedrock of European prosperity for three decades, Germany has entered a structural recession. The Financial Times put it in black and white at the end of 2025: Europe\u2019s leading\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Deindustrialization"","block_context":{"text":"Deindustrialization","link":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/category\/deindustrialization"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/europe-allemagne.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/europe-allemagne.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/europe-allemagne.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/europe-allemagne.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":21448,"url":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/japan\/japan-mirror-of-the-world","url_meta":{"origin":30742,"position":4},"title":"Japan, mirror of the world","author":"Michel Santi","date":"June 29, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"\u00a0 Japan is the world\u2019s laboratory. It\u2019s in this country that in 2001, for the very first time, the famous quantitative easing measures were put in place that tried to break the believed-to-be impenetrable barrier of zero interest rates that had been set in 1999. It was a revolutionary endeavour\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Japan"","block_context":{"text":"Japan","link":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/category\/japan"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/06\/aboratoire.jpg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/06\/aboratoire.jpg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/06\/aboratoire.jpg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/06\/aboratoire.jpg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/06\/aboratoire.jpg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":19136,"url":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/oil\/saudi-arabia-is-no-longer-too-big-to-fail","url_meta":{"origin":30742,"position":5},"title":"Saudi Arabia is no longer \u2018too big to fail\u2019","author":"Michel Santi","date":"December 5, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"Is Saudi Arabia still an important partner to the US? The question answers itself, at least partially, with the Middle East having drastically changed since the strategic and fundamental alliance made in 1943 by President Franklin Roosevelt and King Abdulaziz Ibn Saud. It\u2019s now a distant time when FDR boldly,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Oil"","block_context":{"text":"Oil","link":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/category\/oil"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/MBS.jpg?fit=750%2C375&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/MBS.jpg?fit=750%2C375&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/MBS.jpg?fit=750%2C375&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/MBS.jpg?fit=750%2C375&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]}],"amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30742","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30742"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30742\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":30751,"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30742\/revisions\/30751"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/30745"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30742"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30742"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30742"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}