{"id":30245,"date":"2025-09-15T10:31:47","date_gmt":"2025-09-15T08:31:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/?p=30245"},"modified":"2025-09-15T10:31:47","modified_gmt":"2025-09-15T08:31:47","slug":"debt-the-apocalypse-wont-happen","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/capitalism\/debt-the-apocalypse-wont-happen","title":{"rendered":"Debt: the Apocalypse won\u2019t happen"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/p>\n

\n

Collective hysteria about debt is dangerous. More perilous even than debt itself.<\/strong><\/p>\n

It reflects a profound misunderstanding of the nature and scale of public debt.<\/p>\n

Is France sinking inexorably into a \u201cdebt swamp\u201d? Will its \u20ac3.3 trillion in gross public debt drive it to the edge of the abyss? Is it condemned to drastic budget cuts to avoid a partial default like Greece, or a total collapse like Argentina, or even to face the threat of the IMF?<\/p>\n

This catastrophist rhetoric, this wave of panic\u2014fueled by outdated sermons from discredited experts and stoked by rating agencies that have lost credibility after repeated past misjudgments\u2014flies in the face of basic macroeconomic principles.<\/p>\n

\n

Debt: a false monster but a real political construct<\/h3>\n

Debt is not a credit card bill that must be paid off all at once. Public debt is constantly refinanced, with staggered maturities, only a fraction of which fall due in any given quarter or year. By definition, a state like France borrows over long horizons.<\/p>\n

An extreme but illuminating example: Britain repaid in 2015 a so-called \u201cperpetual\u201d bond first issued by Walpole in\u20261751!<\/p>\n

French Treasury bonds (OATs) are among the most liquid in the world, its debt market one of the deepest globally, and still today (in 2025) considered a benchmark safe asset in the eurozone and beyond.<\/p>\n

Pessimists see as a weakness the fact that roughly half of this debt is held by foreign investors. In reality, it is a sign of confidence: France is one of the most robust issuers in the world. And financial markets, hardly philanthropic by nature, know very well that the annual servicing of this debt\u2014about \u20ac53 billion\u2014is significant but far from unsustainable for an economy worth \u20ac2.8 trillion. What matters is not the size of the debt stock, but its cost, which will remain manageable even if rates rise.<\/p>\n

\n

Why, then, this organized panic?<\/h3>\n

The prophets of doom should study history. This is far from the first time France has carried heavy debt. Debt stood at 113% of GDP (as today) after the 1870 war, only to fall to 68% by 1914 thanks to industrialization and growth.<\/p>\n

In the interwar period, French debt soared to over 300%, but after 1945 it gradually declined to 150%. Far from damning France, that debt laid the groundwork for the \u201cTrente Glorieuses,\u201d thirty years of 5% annual growth that reduced the debt-to-GDP ratio to below 20% by 1980.<\/p>\n

Nor is France unique today. Britain\u2019s debt exceeded 250% of GDP after World War II. Japan has remained a global economic powerhouse for thirty years despite debt of 230%. The United States stands at 122%, Italy at 138%. France is not an outlier among advanced economies\u2014and it enjoys two major advantages: a diversified economy and a strong currency.<\/p>\n

\n

Populist fear tactics<\/h3>\n

The real danger does not come from debt itself, but from how we choose to respond to it. Beware suicidal\u2014and frankly populist\u2014decisions that insist on the absolute necessity of tens of billions in cuts.<\/p>\n

Less public spending means less growth, less tax revenue, and in the end an even heavier debt burden. Debt has never been reduced through austerity\u2014only through growth.<\/em><\/p>\n

Throughout history, every surge in debt has coincided with a major crisis (war, pandemic, energy shock). And every lasting decline has come with economic expansion. To believe debt can be tamed by spending cuts alone is an illusion\u2014even a crime: against the poor, taxed further, and against the wealthy, pushed to flee the country.<\/p>\n

French public debt is neither a bottomless pit nor a ticking time bomb. It is an instrument. History, international comparisons, and present data all show that we have the means to manage it. The true threat lies in panic<\/em> and Pavlovian populist rhetoric, which push us into austerity, stagnation, and decline.<\/p>\n

\n

Unleashing growth<\/h3>\n

We must also put an end to falsehoods. Our descendants will not inherit abstract liabilities; they will inherit infrastructure, hospitals, universities, investments in the green transition. Yesterday\u2019s debt financed the welfare state, highways, the TGV, nuclear power, schools\u2014all assets we benefit from today.<\/p>\n

What matters is not the gross amount of debt, but how it is used. Debt for everyday consumption is questionable. Debt for research, innovation, education, the green transition\u2014investments that generate future income and quality of life\u2014is not.<\/p>\n

We must stop trembling at numbers stripped of context. Political courage is not about waving blind spending cuts to appease markets or secure a place in the history books. True courage is investing in the future.<\/p>\n

The debt-to-GDP ratio is just that: a ratio. If debt grows 3% but GDP grows 4%, the ratio falls. Let us hope for a stateswoman or statesman who calls us to bet on growth, not fear. Someone who understands that debt is not a shackle, but a lever. It is up to us to decide whether to use it to build\u2014or to let the \u201cserious\u201d voices chain us to endless austerity.<\/p>\n

Invest, and let growth do the work.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Collective hysteria about debt is dangerous. More perilous even than debt itself. It reflects a profound misunderstanding of the nature and scale of public debt. Is France sinking inexorably into a \u201cdebt swamp\u201d? Will its \u20ac3.3 trillion in gross public debt drive it to the edge of the abyss? Is it condemned to drastic budget…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":30249,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"give_campaign_id":0,"_crdt_document":"","_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"mc4wp_mailchimp_campaign":[],"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"_wpas_customize_per_network":false},"categories":[648941282,648941303,648942607,648942096,648941268],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30245","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-capitalism","category-debt","category-debts-reduction","category-financial-repression","category-france-en"],"yoast_head":"\nDebt: the Apocalypse won\u2019t happen - Michel Santi<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/capitalism\/debt-the-apocalypse-wont-happen\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Debt: the Apocalypse won\u2019t happen - Michel Santi\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Collective hysteria about debt is dangerous. 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Five of them were immediately followed by depressions. 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Trapped in a model inherited from the 19th century, France will need to refinance itself next year to the tune of just over \u20ac300 billion\u2014a complex and risky exercise.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "french public debt"","block_context":{"text":"french public debt","link":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/category\/french-public-debt"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Claude_Lefebvre_-_Detail_of_Portrait_of_Jean_Baptiste_Jean-Baptiste_Colbert_1619-1683_Ministe_-_MeisterDrucke-982380.jpg?fit=1020%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Claude_Lefebvre_-_Detail_of_Portrait_of_Jean_Baptiste_Jean-Baptiste_Colbert_1619-1683_Ministe_-_MeisterDrucke-982380.jpg?fit=1020%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Claude_Lefebvre_-_Detail_of_Portrait_of_Jean_Baptiste_Jean-Baptiste_Colbert_1619-1683_Ministe_-_MeisterDrucke-982380.jpg?fit=1020%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Claude_Lefebvre_-_Detail_of_Portrait_of_Jean_Baptiste_Jean-Baptiste_Colbert_1619-1683_Ministe_-_MeisterDrucke-982380.jpg?fit=1020%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":26959,"url":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/debt\/the-debt-great-absentee-of-the-american-electoral-campaign","url_meta":{"origin":30245,"position":2},"title":"The Debt: Great Absentee of the American Electoral Campaign","author":"Michel Santi","date":"October 20, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"\u00a0 \u00a0 To solve a problem, you must first acknowledge its existence. The American debt, which has reached $35,769,084,471,524 in October 2024, does not concern either of the current U.S. presidential candidates. In fact, the word \"debt\" has not been mentioned even once in the debate between them. It is\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "debt"","block_context":{"text":"debt","link":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/category\/debt"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/debt-us-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C582&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/debt-us-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C582&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/debt-us-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C582&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/debt-us-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C582&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/debt-us-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C582&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":20252,"url":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/debt\/the-monetary-theory-of-happiness","url_meta":{"origin":30245,"position":3},"title":"The Monetary Theory of Happiness","author":"Michel Santi","date":"April 29, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"\u00a0 A government that puts its monetary system to the service of its citizens and businesses views money as an instrument to improve their prosperity. In the absence of this belief, government action is ineffective or effective for just a minority. This degenerates into \u201cpoverty in the midst of plenty\u201d\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "debt"","block_context":{"text":"debt","link":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/category\/debt"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/debt.png?fit=800%2C639&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/debt.png?fit=800%2C639&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/debt.png?fit=800%2C639&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/debt.png?fit=800%2C639&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":20835,"url":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/debt\/taking-on-debt-yes-but-what-for","url_meta":{"origin":30245,"position":4},"title":"Taking on debt, yes, but what for?","author":"Michel Santi","date":"October 11, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Following on from Keynes, it\u2019s been years that I\u2019ve been talking about it and outlining the mechanisms. At present, reality is catching up with the \u201cmainstream\u201d economists who with regret have recognised the absolute necessity for governments to deepen their debts in the current recession brought about by the health\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "debt"","block_context":{"text":"debt","link":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/category\/debt"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/Roosevelt-e-Keynes-1.jpg?fit=600%2C400&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/Roosevelt-e-Keynes-1.jpg?fit=600%2C400&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/Roosevelt-e-Keynes-1.jpg?fit=600%2C400&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":24466,"url":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/financial-crisis\/is-there-a-way-towards-economic-serenity","url_meta":{"origin":30245,"position":5},"title":"Is there a way towards economic serenity?","author":"Michel Santi","date":"March 29, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"All the economic parishes agree on the fact that too high debts are harmful. However, they diverge when the profile of the debtor is considered because, while the Austrian school is primarily concerned with public debts, the neo-Keynesians attach much more importance to private sector debts. The classics are indeed\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "financial crisis"","block_context":{"text":"financial crisis","link":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/category\/financial-crisis"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/serenite.png?fit=1200%2C801&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/serenite.png?fit=1200%2C801&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/serenite.png?fit=1200%2C801&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/serenite.png?fit=1200%2C801&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/serenite.png?fit=1200%2C801&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30245","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30245"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30245\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":30254,"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30245\/revisions\/30254"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/30249"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30245"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30245"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30245"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}