{"id":30157,"date":"2025-08-30T12:33:52","date_gmt":"2025-08-30T10:33:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/?p=30157"},"modified":"2025-08-30T16:28:47","modified_gmt":"2025-08-30T14:28:47","slug":"trump-fed","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/central-banks\/trump-fed","title":{"rendered":"Destabilizing the Fed: Trump Is Right"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/p>\n

The independence of central banks is destined to become a relic of the past.<\/strong><\/p>\n

It is certainly the successive blows, increasingly frequent, of the President of the United States that threaten it. But in fact, they have only themselves to blame: it is their own actions that now drive governments to this major reassessment. Keynes himself had become disillusioned: he who, in his Treatise on Money<\/em> (1930), had theorized the natural rate of interest, the supreme weapon of central banks allowing for a balance between savings and investment so as to achieve an economy free of both inflation and deflation. He who had been a staunch defender of central bank independence\u2014meant to wield their powerful lever in complete serenity\u2014reversed course in 1936 in his General Theory<\/em>, largely prompted by his disappointment at the manifest failure of those very institutions to overcome the Great Depression.<\/p>\n

+++++++++++++++++++++++++<\/p>\n

Thanks to Radio T\u00e9l\u00e9vision Suisse, La Premi\u00e8re, for giving me two hours on air to talk about my life and journey.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Listen live on September 2 from 3 to 5 PM, or catch it on replay<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

++++++++++++++++++++++++++<\/p>\n

Keynes was therefore the first to admit that the competences of central banks were illusory, introducing a fundamental notion still relevant today: the \u201canimal spirits<\/strong>,\u201d which are nothing more than the inclination of individuals toward risk combined with the confidence (or lack thereof) they place in the future. Yet central banks came back into fashion in the 1970s and early 1980s, having successfully tamed the almost uncontrollable inflationary shocks that had so deeply scarred that era. For central banks, this period inaugurated their golden age and consecrated their independence from political powers.<\/p>\n

Great charismatic figures such as Paul Volcker and Alan Greenspan (in the United States) or Hans Tietmeyer (in Germany) could not, after all, have their credibility undermined by petty politicians who would not have hesitated to take them hostage in the service of their short-term calculations. And yet, their true hour of glory was owed to Bill Clinton and Tony Blair, who enshrined them as Grand Commanders. To give credit where it is due, these now-untouchable ultra-technocrats produced what has come to be known as the \u201cGreat Moderation<\/em>\u201d of the 1990s, a happy period of strong growth and nonexistent inflation. These experts were thus expected to reign in complete independence, beyond all reach, almost above the fray\u2026 except that the implosion of technology stocks (1999\u20132001) and the global financial crisis (from 2007 onward) brought them back to reality.<\/p>\n

\n

Visit me at the Monaco book fair<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Indeed: the animal spirits so vividly described by Keynes disrupted their plans and forced them to get their hands dirty. The coup de gr\u00e2ce was delivered by the great Hyman Minsky<\/strong>, who did not hesitate to break into their ivory tower. Almost unknown during his lifetime (he died in 1996), having based his research on the causes of financial crises, he gained posthumous fame during the implosion of the subprime mortgage market. Never mentioned\u2014even in passing\u2014by the press during his life, The Economist<\/em> cited him more than 30 times in 2007 alone!<\/p>\n

Minsky\u2019s total lack of visibility stemmed from his m\u00e9tier: the study of crises. At the time, the vast majority of commentators, across the spectrum, considered financial markets omniscient and central banks the ultimate arbiters. Since modern economies were presumed to have conquered their demons, any crisis could only, by definition, prove temporary and have a limited impact on the economy. It was in this context\u2014marked by an almost absolute denial of the destructive potential of markets\u2014that Minsky developed his financial instability hypothesis.<\/p>\n

Keep in mind this constant revealed by Minsky: economic turmoil arises from and is caused by periods of prosperity<\/strong>. He described contexts in which households and firms throw themselves frenetically into borrowing without even having the liquidity to cover the interest on their debts, justified only by speculation, banking on an uninterrupted rise in their assets. Such a phenomenon of collective contamination inevitably weakens the financial system as soon as interest rates tighten, a seemingly minor incident occurs, or even a simple spark ignites. The overexposure of these investors\u2014who use massive leverage in the hope that valuations will only rise\u2014further exacerbates the fragility of the entire edifice.<\/p>\n

Prosperity, in other words, was nothing but illusory, as Keynes had foreseen, and central banks proved incapable of restraining the infamous animal spirits. It thus turned out that this supposed economic stability\u2014allegedly the fruit of central bank action\u2014carried within itself the seeds of instability, for Minsky\u2019s insights show that periods of great fragility merely echo periods of prosperity<\/em>. From then on, central banks\u2014and we along with them!\u2014became \u201caddicted\u201d to the infamous \u201cQE,\u201d which are nothing more than liquidity injections meant to oil the wheels and rekindle inflation and economic growth.<\/p>\n

Join me in Beirut for my book signing event<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Except that these torrents of liquidity mainly had the effect of creating, in turn, other bubbles: real estate, surreal stock market valuations, absurd cryptocurrencies, and obscene inequalities. They have only themselves to blame today if they\u2014central banks\u2014are in Trump\u2019s crosshairs. They are out of ideas<\/strong> and, in some respects, remind me of the bureaucrats of the Soviet Union<\/strong>! Central bankers no longer know which direction to take<\/em>, nor even whether their actions and instruments remain effective. Their single refrain, echoed by their defenders, is that any questioning of their independence will inevitably have grave repercussions.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The independence of central banks is destined to become a relic of the past. It is certainly the successive blows, increasingly frequent, of the President of the United States that threaten it. But in fact, they have only themselves to blame: it is their own actions that now drive governments to this major reassessment. Keynes…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":30160,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"give_campaign_id":0,"_crdt_document":"","_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"mc4wp_mailchimp_campaign":[],"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"_wpas_customize_per_network":false},"categories":[648941265,648941267,648942730],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30157","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-central-banks","category-fed-en","category-trump-2"],"yoast_head":"\nDestabilizing the Fed: Trump Is Right - Michel Santi<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/central-banks\/trump-fed\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Destabilizing the Fed: Trump Is Right - Michel Santi\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The independence of central banks is destined to become a relic of the past. 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Vilified for exacerbating inequalities and dragged through the mud for maintaining zero interest rates, it\u2019s only fair that we\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Cash"","block_context":{"text":"Cash","link":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/category\/cash-en"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/09\/P.-Volcker.jpg?fit=700%2C394&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/09\/P.-Volcker.jpg?fit=700%2C394&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/09\/P.-Volcker.jpg?fit=700%2C394&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/09\/P.-Volcker.jpg?fit=700%2C394&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":19527,"url":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/ecb-2\/central-banker-extinction-of-the-species","url_meta":{"origin":30157,"position":1},"title":"Central banker: extinction of the species","author":"Michel Santi","date":"July 9, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"\u00a0 \u201cOf course our central bank is independent\u201d, the Turkish President, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, pretty much just declared, just before dismissing by presidential decree (on 7th July) the boss of Turkey\u2019s central bank, Murat Cetinkaya, stating that \u201ca central bank cannot ignore the signals sent by the President\u201d. 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While these losses do not threaten their solvency, they reveal a deeper transformation: the end of the illusion of neutral and invisible monetary technocracy, and the return of money as a fully political\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "central bank independance"","block_context":{"text":"central bank independance","link":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/category\/central-bank-independance"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/chateau-de-billets.jpg?fit=800%2C582&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/chateau-de-billets.jpg?fit=800%2C582&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/chateau-de-billets.jpg?fit=800%2C582&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/chateau-de-billets.jpg?fit=800%2C582&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":19396,"url":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/inflation-en\/a-major-challenge-of-our-time","url_meta":{"origin":30157,"position":4},"title":"A major challenge of our time","author":"Michel Santi","date":"April 21, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Where has inflation gone? While the US enjoys one of its longest periods of economic expansion, and while it is pretty much at full employment with its best figures for fifty years, inflation is nevertheless miniscule. Will it one day make its return to our developed nations of integrated economies?\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Inflation"","block_context":{"text":"Inflation","link":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/category\/inflation-en"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/04\/Inflation-.jpg?fit=469%2C377&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":29028,"url":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/dollar-2\/make-the-fed-great-again","url_meta":{"origin":30157,"position":5},"title":"Make the Fed GREAT AGAIN!","author":"Michel Santi","date":"April 21, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Unhappy with Jerome Powell, Chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve, for not complying with his demands to lower interest rates, President Donald Trump is seeking legal ways to dismiss him. Trump believes it is necessary to ease U.S. monetary policy to offset the economic impact of his tariff policy. His\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "dollar"","block_context":{"text":"dollar","link":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/category\/dollar-2"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/titanic-trump.jpg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/titanic-trump.jpg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/titanic-trump.jpg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/titanic-trump.jpg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/titanic-trump.jpg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30157","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30157"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30157\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":30171,"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30157\/revisions\/30171"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/30160"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30157"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30157"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30157"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}