{"id":30136,"date":"2025-08-27T10:31:32","date_gmt":"2025-08-27T08:31:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/?p=30136"},"modified":"2025-08-27T10:31:32","modified_gmt":"2025-08-27T08:31:32","slug":"china","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/china\/china","title":{"rendered":"China : the next silent Black Swan ?"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Trade between the U.S. and China has collapsed to its lowest point in nearly 20 years. <\/strong><\/p>\n

Imports from China just hit a 19-year low, and U.S. exports to China are sliding too. <\/strong><\/p>\n

Tariffs, decoupling, and weaker demand are crushing the flow of goods.<\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

You are cordially invited to visit me at the Monaco Book Fair !<\/span><\/h3>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

  Trade between the U.S. and China has collapsed to its lowest point in nearly 20 years. Imports from China just hit a 19-year low, and U.S. exports to China are sliding too. Tariffs, decoupling, and weaker demand are crushing the flow of goods.   You are cordially invited to visit me at the Monaco…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":30147,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"give_campaign_id":0,"_crdt_document":"","_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"mc4wp_mailchimp_campaign":[],"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"_wpas_customize_per_network":false},"categories":[648941287,648942755],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30136","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-china","category-tariffs-2"],"yoast_head":"\nChina : the next silent Black Swan ? - Michel Santi<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/china\/china\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"China : the next silent Black Swan ? - Michel Santi\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"  Trade between the U.S. and China has collapsed to its lowest point in nearly 20 years. 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Starting on April 10, trade between the U.S. and China progressively \u2014 but irresistibly \u2014 came to a halt. Cargo bookings, in fact,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "China"","block_context":{"text":"China","link":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/category\/china"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/xii.jpg?fit=676%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/xii.jpg?fit=676%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/xii.jpg?fit=676%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":27137,"url":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/tariffs\/currency-wars","url_meta":{"origin":30136,"position":1},"title":"Currency is the Perfect and Easy Weapon Against Trade Wars","author":"Michel Santi","date":"November 23, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"\u00a0 In 2018, as part of their trade war, the U.S. imposed an average tariff of 12.5% on imports from China. The direct consequence? The yuan gradually declined by a similar proportion. Now, consider the U.S. imposing tariffs on imports from the Eurozone. For the European Union, the best defense\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "currency manipulation"","block_context":{"text":"currency manipulation","link":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/category\/currency-manipulation"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/eur.png?fit=1200%2C516&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/eur.png?fit=1200%2C516&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/eur.png?fit=1200%2C516&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/eur.png?fit=1200%2C516&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/eur.png?fit=1200%2C516&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":28957,"url":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/china\/flip-flop-policy","url_meta":{"origin":30136,"position":2},"title":"Flip-flop policy","author":"Michel Santi","date":"April 13, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"\u00a0 Trump has just lowered tariffs on smartphones, computers, and electronic devices imported from China. Every day, the White House backtracks, revises downward, cancels... In such conditions, where can one find the motivation to set up a factory and bring industrial jobs back to the United States? Tariffs are not\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "China"","block_context":{"text":"China","link":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/category\/china"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/GoLL1hOXQAAUSmc.jpg?fit=1200%2C960&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/GoLL1hOXQAAUSmc.jpg?fit=1200%2C960&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/GoLL1hOXQAAUSmc.jpg?fit=1200%2C960&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/GoLL1hOXQAAUSmc.jpg?fit=1200%2C960&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/GoLL1hOXQAAUSmc.jpg?fit=1200%2C960&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":28804,"url":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/financial-crisis\/tariffs","url_meta":{"origin":30136,"position":3},"title":"Trump\u2019s Tariffs: Economic Voodoo at Work","author":"Michel Santi","date":"April 7, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"\"They are to economics what creationism is to biology, and astrology is to astronomy,\" tweeted Larry Summers, former U.S. Secretary of the Treasury. A statement that highlights the sheer absurdity \u2014 even outright foolishness \u2014 of the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration. Why then has Lesotho, one of the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "financial crisis"","block_context":{"text":"financial crisis","link":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/category\/financial-crisis"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Gnk2Z6rW8AASGdE.jpg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Gnk2Z6rW8AASGdE.jpg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Gnk2Z6rW8AASGdE.jpg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Gnk2Z6rW8AASGdE.jpg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Gnk2Z6rW8AASGdE.jpg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":26678,"url":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/china\/japanification-of-china","url_meta":{"origin":30136,"position":4},"title":"Japanification of China","author":"Michel Santi","date":"August 29, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"\u00a0 \u00a0 Extended periods of deflation, economic stagnation, a declining real estate market, financial pressure and stress impacting households, businesses, and the state. All signals suggesting credible parallels between today's China and Japan in the 1990s. China risks becoming an aging and heavily indebted country before it becomes a wealthy\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "China"","block_context":{"text":"China","link":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/category\/china"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/Chine-Japon.jpg?fit=1200%2C676&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/Chine-Japon.jpg?fit=1200%2C676&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/Chine-Japon.jpg?fit=1200%2C676&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/Chine-Japon.jpg?fit=1200%2C676&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/Chine-Japon.jpg?fit=1200%2C676&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":27222,"url":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/tariffs-2\/trump-and-the-loudmouths","url_meta":{"origin":30136,"position":5},"title":"Trump and the Loudmouths","author":"Michel Santi","date":"December 20, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"\u00a0 Trump threatens heavy tariff sanctions if the European Union does not buy more oil. \u00a0 Yet, European imports from the U.S. have only been increasing: they have been rising substantially and consistently, year after year. \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 Conclusion: Trump makes loud demands that are entirely realistic, as\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Europe vulnerability"","block_context":{"text":"Europe vulnerability","link":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/category\/europe-vulnerability"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/trump-eu.jpg?fit=1200%2C793&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/trump-eu.jpg?fit=1200%2C793&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/trump-eu.jpg?fit=1200%2C793&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/trump-eu.jpg?fit=1200%2C793&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/trump-eu.jpg?fit=1200%2C793&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30136","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30136"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30136\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":30150,"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30136\/revisions\/30150"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/30147"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30136"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30136"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30136"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}