{"id":29729,"date":"2025-06-30T12:44:18","date_gmt":"2025-06-30T10:44:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/?p=29729"},"modified":"2025-06-30T12:44:18","modified_gmt":"2025-06-30T10:44:18","slug":"perfect-storm-in-the-land-of-tsunamis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/financial-crisis\/perfect-storm-in-the-land-of-tsunamis","title":{"rendered":"Perfect storm in the land of tsunamis"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is teetering on the edge of a financial abyss. As of March 31, 2025, it holds \u00a5575.9 trillion (US$3.97 trillion) in Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs), representing 52% of Japan\u2019s total public debt<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

For years, its massive bond-buying program\u2014part of an ultra-loose monetary policy\u2014flooded the economy with liquidity, keeping yields near zero to stimulate growth. By purchasing JGBs, the BOJ artificially lowered borrowing costs, enabling businesses and consumers to borrow and spend. Yet this house of cards may collapse this year under the weight of rising interest rates.<\/p>\n

The fallout threatens not only to engulf Japan but also to destabilize the entire global financial system.<\/p>\n

\n

Ignoring a Basic Rule<\/strong><\/p>\n

In finance, one fundamental rule is that bond prices fall as yields rise.<\/p>\n

The yield on 10-year JGBs climbed to 1.44% on June 27, 2025\u2014up 97.26% from 0.73% a year earlier in June 2024, and up 69.41% from 0.85% in September 2024.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Longer-term bonds show even more alarming volatility: 30-year yields reached 3.15% in May, and 40-year yields rose to 3.635%. This surge in yields has crushed the value of the BOJ\u2019s bond portfolio, triggering unrealized losses of around US$200 billion\u2014a historic record<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

At the same time, China liquidated US$8.2 billion of its U.S. Treasury holdings in June 2025. A synchronized storm seems to be brewing across the bond markets.<\/p>\n

\n

Why Does It Matter?<\/strong><\/p>\n

The BOJ\u2019s losses aren\u2019t just accounting noise. Even though the bonds haven\u2019t been sold, the shock is shaking the credibility of the central bank. It has had to suspend its usual liquidity transfers to the Japanese government. Meanwhile, the country\u2019s life insurers are also buckling under the weight of \u00a58.7 trillion (US$60 billion) in unrealized losses on domestic bonds. Nippon Life alone is facing US$25 billion in losses.<\/p>\n

\n

A Global Time Bomb<\/strong><\/p>\n

Japan is the largest foreign holder (US$1.13 trillion) of U.S. Treasury securities. The massive losses suffered by the BOJ and once rock-solid Japanese insurers will inevitably lead to large-scale sales of Treasuries to offset part of their balance sheet shortfalls. As a result, U.S. Treasury yields will have to rise to continue attracting investors willing to fund America\u2019s deficit spending.<\/p>\n

To put it in perspective: every 1% increase in U.S. Treasury yields adds US$300 billion per year to the cost of servicing American debt<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

And to make matters worse, central banks are already in the phase of tightening liquidity. The combined impact of a Japanese bond market collapse, China\u2019s large-scale Treasury sell-off, and the resulting spike in U.S. government bond yields could spell a nightmare scenario for global financial stability.<\/p>\n

\u00a0\"\"<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

  The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is teetering on the edge of a financial abyss. As of March 31, 2025, it holds \u00a5575.9 trillion (US$3.97 trillion) in Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs), representing 52% of Japan\u2019s total public debt. For years, its massive bond-buying program\u2014part of an ultra-loose monetary policy\u2014flooded the economy with liquidity, keeping yields…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":29731,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"give_campaign_id":0,"_crdt_document":"","_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"mc4wp_mailchimp_campaign":[],"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"_wpas_customize_per_network":false},"categories":[648942282,648941263],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-29729","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-financial-crisis","category-japan"],"yoast_head":"\nPerfect storm in the land of tsunamis - Michel Santi<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/financial-crisis\/perfect-storm-in-the-land-of-tsunamis\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Perfect storm in the land of tsunamis - Michel Santi\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"  The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is teetering on the edge of a financial abyss. 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In\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Japan"","block_context":{"text":"Japan","link":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/category\/japan"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/Abe.jpg?fit=800%2C450&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/Abe.jpg?fit=800%2C450&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/Abe.jpg?fit=800%2C450&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/Abe.jpg?fit=800%2C450&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":21448,"url":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/japan\/japan-mirror-of-the-world","url_meta":{"origin":29729,"position":3},"title":"Japan, mirror of the world","author":"Michel Santi","date":"June 29, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"\u00a0 Japan is the world\u2019s laboratory. It\u2019s in this country that in 2001, for the very first time, the famous quantitative easing measures were put in place that tried to break the believed-to-be impenetrable barrier of zero interest rates that had been set in 1999. It was a revolutionary endeavour\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Japan"","block_context":{"text":"Japan","link":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/category\/japan"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/06\/aboratoire.jpg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/06\/aboratoire.jpg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/06\/aboratoire.jpg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/06\/aboratoire.jpg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/06\/aboratoire.jpg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":26678,"url":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/china\/japanification-of-china","url_meta":{"origin":29729,"position":4},"title":"Japanification of China","author":"Michel Santi","date":"August 29, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"\u00a0 \u00a0 Extended periods of deflation, economic stagnation, a declining real estate market, financial pressure and stress impacting households, businesses, and the state. All signals suggesting credible parallels between today's China and Japan in the 1990s. China risks becoming an aging and heavily indebted country before it becomes a wealthy\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "China"","block_context":{"text":"China","link":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/category\/china"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/Chine-Japon.jpg?fit=1200%2C676&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/Chine-Japon.jpg?fit=1200%2C676&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/Chine-Japon.jpg?fit=1200%2C676&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/Chine-Japon.jpg?fit=1200%2C676&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/Chine-Japon.jpg?fit=1200%2C676&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":19880,"url":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/demography\/this-japan-that-wont-stop-surprising-us","url_meta":{"origin":29729,"position":5},"title":"This Japan that won\u2019t stop surprising us","author":"Michel Santi","date":"January 24, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"\u00a0 Japan has been able to face up to its destiny, and even to force it. It has handled perfectly one of the essential components of economic growth, that being demographics. In fact, the number of people on the payroll has increased there these last ten years, much more than\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "demography"","block_context":{"text":"demography","link":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/category\/demography"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/Japon.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/Japon.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/Japon.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/Japon.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/Japon.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29729","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=29729"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29729\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":29742,"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29729\/revisions\/29742"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/29731"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=29729"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=29729"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=29729"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}