{"id":29281,"date":"2025-05-15T15:19:23","date_gmt":"2025-05-15T13:19:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/?p=29281"},"modified":"2025-05-16T11:55:01","modified_gmt":"2025-05-16T09:55:01","slug":"khamenei-iran","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/iran-2\/khamenei-iran","title":{"rendered":"Ali Khamenei : A fragile legitimacy"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Preamble<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/div>\n
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The analysis that follows, centered on the figure of Ali Khamenei, reveals a fundamental truth: Iran\u2019s nuclear program transcends mere geopolitical strategy to root itself in a deeply personal and ideological quest. Marked by a deficit of religious legitimacy since his rise to power in 1989, Khamenei has made the nuclear program a symbol of his resilience and fidelity to Khomeini\u2019s legacy. This intimate dimension, coupled with his intransigence forged through decades of internal and external challenges, makes any compromise on the nuclear issue exceedingly difficult. In 2025, facing a hostile world, an exhausted populace, and a declining regional influence, the nuclear program remains for Khamenei far more than a strategic asset: it is the mirror of his legitimacy, the bulwark of his authority. In this context, international negotiations, often viewed as a game of rational concessions, collide with an Iranian reality where yielding would, for Khamenei, amount to renouncing his own political existence. The following lines demonstrate why, for Iran, a nuclear agreement is not only complex but nearly incompatible with the psyche and vision of the Supreme Leader.<\/span><\/span><\/em><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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On June 3, 1989, Khomeini passed away. Yet, his long-designated heir, Hossein Ali Montazeri, had been sidelined just weeks earlier for expressing reservations about the violence that had become intrinsic to the Islamic Republic of Iran. In a context where the grand Ayatollahs<\/em> of Qom, such as Golpayegani, were too old and detached from the direction the Revolution had taken, Ali Khamenei emerged as a compromise. Lacking religious prestige but undeniably loyal, experienced, and, above all, backed by key regime figures like Rafsanjani, the cunning Speaker of Parliament. Yet, on June 4, in the Assembly of Experts\u2019 chamber, debates flared: \u201cHe is not a marja<\/em>*!,\u201d whispered prominent clergy members. Unfazed, Khamenei listened, aware that his subordinate rank of Hojatoleslam<\/em> was a weakness. Hastily amended on Khomeini\u2019s orders, the Constitution now paved the way for him, stating that the \u201cSupreme Leader\u201d no longer needed to be a marja<\/em> but merely a \u201ccompetent jurist.\u201d Proclaimed an Ayatollah somewhat hurriedly\u2014a title he knew was contested in the eyes of some\u2014Khamenei accepted, with doubt, with fear. He would have to prove himself worthy.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Begun decades ago, this quest defines him. To understand the man clinging to this fragile throne, one must trace time backward, from the trials of the present to the origins of an ambition forged in Khomeini\u2019s shadow. Throughout his life and long career, Khamenei would strive to claim Khomeini\u2019s legacy to compensate for his own lack of legitimacy. His doctrinal inferiority seems to have fueled a constant need to prove his worth.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Tehran, 2025. Khamenei is still there, adorned with his black turban, a mark of the Sayyid clergy who claim direct descent from the Prophet, symbolizing a sacred lineage that inspires respect and religious authority. Aside from Khomeini\u2019s portraits, after the accidental death of his ally, President Raisi, in 2024, he is now more or less alone but refuses to yield. His nuclear centrifuges seem to be his last bastion. Each rotation of uranium is a defiance of the world, further proof that he has held firm.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Born in 1939 in Mashhad, he joined the seminaries of Qom, the holy city of clerics, at age 15, where he met Ruhollah Khomeini, an austere professor whose eyes burned with a vision: an Iran governed by God\u2019s law, freed from the chains of the West. Reserved, neither the most brilliant nor the most charismatic, Khamenei devoted himself to his master, who became his beacon, his model. He absorbed everything: faith, rebellion, the idea that a cleric could change the world. In the 1960s, as the Shah stifled Iran under his authoritarian modernism, Khamenei chose struggle. He distributed pamphlets, preached against the regime, and spent nights in prison. Each arrest was proof of his loyalty to Khomeini, exiled in Iraq.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Appointed Supreme Leader by the arbitrary grace of the Grand Imam, Khamenei inherited immense but fragile power. The Constitution grants him near-divine authority: appointing the heads of the armed forces, courts, and the Revolutionary Guards; controlling the Guardian Council, which filters laws and candidates. He is the guardian of Sharia, the arbiter of Iran\u2019s destiny. Lacking Khomeini\u2019s charisma, he must rely on loyalists and conservative clerics who make him feel the weight of their expectations. Not a recognized marja, the seminaries of Qom remind him of this regularly. Factions\u2014conservatives, pragmatists, reformists\u2014threaten unity. Every decision is a test. This insecurity becomes his driving force, and he chooses intransigence\u2014not by nature, but by necessity. Everything will collapse if he fails to be the rock Khomeini was.<\/strong><\/p>\n

The 1990s were crucial. Exhausted by the war with Iraq, Iran yearned for change, but Khamenei saw every compromise as a threat to his authority. He surrounded himself with the Revolutionary Guards, loyalist clerics building a bulwark against reformists. Each decision was a chance to prove he was more than a substitute. This psychological pressure became his engine. He could not fail. He could not bend. He had to be inflexible, like his master. His choices were strategic but also deeply personal. To yield would be to confirm he was not up to the task. His intransigence became his armor. That is why he hardened his stance. When reformist President Mohammad Khatami advocated dialogue with the West in 1997, Khamenei curbed his efforts, letting the Guardian Council block his laws. When, in 2009, the Green Movement contested Ahmadinejad\u2019s election and Tehran\u2019s streets roared \u201cDeath to the dictator!,\u201d Khamenei ordered the crackdown.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Both his sword and shield, the nuclear program is far more than a weapon for Khamenei. It is the symbol of his struggle, proof that he has carried Khomeini\u2019s legacy against all odds. Walled in a quest that never fades, every speech against America, every centrifuge, every tortured prisoner is an act of validation. It is not just about the regime, but about him. His perseverance is a response to the clerics who doubted him in 1989. His nuclear program is the multiplier of his power. It was reluctantly that he supported the 2015 nuclear deal (JCPOA) to ease sanctions. Donald Trump did him a great service by freeing him, at the start of his first term, from this tactical concession that clashed so deeply with the absolutist rigidity of his master.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Yet, the true pragmatist that he is knows that in 2025, facing a hostile world and an exhausted people, with the loss of influence in Syria and the fatal erosion of Hezbollah, the nuclear program is his last card. Not merely a strategic matter, the nuclear program is the mirror of his inner quest. It proves he is more than a mediocre cleric, that he can defy global powers. The nuclear program is the soul of Khamenei\u2019s legitimacy. Far more radical, even extremist, than him, Khomeini knew how to be tactical, flexible, even silent when circumstances demanded. Khamenei, however, has always had to maintain a consistently harder line, even where Khomeini might have allowed ambiguities.<\/strong><\/p>\n

* A marja (or marja-e taqlid) is, in Shiite Islam, a high-ranking religious scholar recognized as a supreme authority in matters of Islamic law and theology.<\/strong><\/p>\n

In A Levantine Youth<\/em><\/a>, I recount my meetings with Khomeini in October 1978 and my trip to Iran during his triumphant return on February 1, 1979.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Buy it:<\/u><\/h2>\n

France:\u00a0FNAC<\/a><\/p>\n

Switzerland:\u00a0PAYOT<\/a><\/p>\n

Lebanon:\u00a0ANTOINE<\/a><\/p>\n

Canada:\u00a0Les Libraires<\/a><\/p>\n

AMAZON<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Preamble The analysis that follows, centered on the figure of Ali Khamenei, reveals a fundamental truth: Iran\u2019s nuclear program transcends mere geopolitical strategy to root itself in a deeply personal and ideological quest. 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I explained why the Iranian clergy will remain uncompromising on the issue of nuclear power. As a reminder, I met Imam Khomeini twice, during which he confided in me about his ambition to establish the hegemony of his\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Iran"","block_context":{"text":"Iran","link":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/category\/iran-2"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/K-Air-France.jpg?fit=897%2C505&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/K-Air-France.jpg?fit=897%2C505&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/K-Air-France.jpg?fit=897%2C505&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/K-Air-France.jpg?fit=897%2C505&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":26161,"url":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/iran-2\/iran-the-hidden-implications-of-raissis-death","url_meta":{"origin":29281,"position":2},"title":"Iran: the Hidden Implications of Ra\u00efssi’s Death","author":"Michel Santi","date":"May 20, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"In Iran, the powers of the President are minor: he is like an Interior Minister who has no say over national security or ideological direction. \u00a0 Ra\u00efsi and Mojtaba Khamenei were openly competing to succeed the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Mojtaba's father. Ra\u00efssi's death clarifies the situation and puts the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "geopolitics"","block_context":{"text":"geopolitics","link":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/category\/geopolitics"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/iran-organigramme.jpg?fit=1200%2C854&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/iran-organigramme.jpg?fit=1200%2C854&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/iran-organigramme.jpg?fit=1200%2C854&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/iran-organigramme.jpg?fit=1200%2C854&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/iran-organigramme.jpg?fit=1200%2C854&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":31291,"url":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/leadership-decapitation\/khamenei-iran-2","url_meta":{"origin":29281,"position":3},"title":"Kill the leader, create the worst enemy","author":"Michel Santi","date":"March 10, 2026","format":false,"excerpt":"The Trap of the Perfect Strike The father was killed. The wife was killed. The child was killed. During negotiations. And now we wait for the successor to be reasonable. Is that the calculation, the strategy? Eliminate the supreme leader at the beginning of the conflict, hope for a more\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Authoritarian succession"","block_context":{"text":"Authoritarian succession","link":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/category\/authoritarian-succession"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/chateau-de-billets.jpg?fit=800%2C582&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/chateau-de-billets.jpg?fit=800%2C582&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/chateau-de-billets.jpg?fit=800%2C582&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/chateau-de-billets.jpg?fit=800%2C582&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":26158,"url":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/iran\/iran-ce-que-revele-la-mort-du-cavalier-raissi","url_meta":{"origin":29281,"position":4},"title":"Iran : ce que r\u00e9v\u00e8le la mort du cavalier Ra\u00efssi","author":"Michel Santi","date":"May 20, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"En Iran, les attributions du Pr\u00e9sident sont mineures\u00a0: c\u2019est un genre de Ministre de l\u2019Int\u00e9rieur qui n\u2019a pas son mot \u00e0 dire sur le s\u00e9curit\u00e9 nationale ni sur la direction id\u00e9ologique. \u00a0 \u00a0 Ra\u00efsi et Mojtaba Khamenei \u00e9taient en comp\u00e9tition ouverte \u00e0 la succession du guide sup\u00eame Ali Khamenei, p\u00e8re\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "g\u00e9opolitique"","block_context":{"text":"g\u00e9opolitique","link":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/category\/geopolitique"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/iran-organigramme.jpg?fit=1200%2C854&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/iran-organigramme.jpg?fit=1200%2C854&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/iran-organigramme.jpg?fit=1200%2C854&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/iran-organigramme.jpg?fit=1200%2C854&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/iran-organigramme.jpg?fit=1200%2C854&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":29280,"url":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/iran\/khamenei-iran","url_meta":{"origin":29281,"position":5},"title":"Ali Khamenei : une l\u00e9gitimit\u00e9 fragile","author":"Michel Santi","date":"May 15, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"\u00a0 Pr\u00e9ambule L\u2019analyse qui suit, centr\u00e9e sur la figure d\u2019Ali Khamenei, met en lumi\u00e8re une v\u00e9rit\u00e9 essentielle : le programme nucl\u00e9aire iranien transcende la simple strat\u00e9gie g\u00e9opolitique pour s\u2019ancrer dans une qu\u00eate profond\u00e9ment personnelle et id\u00e9ologique. Marqu\u00e9 par un d\u00e9ficit de l\u00e9gitimit\u00e9 religieuse depuis son accession au pouvoir en 1989,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Iran"","block_context":{"text":"Iran","link":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/category\/iran"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Khamenei.jpg?fit=1200%2C600&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Khamenei.jpg?fit=1200%2C600&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Khamenei.jpg?fit=1200%2C600&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Khamenei.jpg?fit=1200%2C600&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Khamenei.jpg?fit=1200%2C600&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29281","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=29281"}],"version-history":[{"count":9,"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29281\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":29316,"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29281\/revisions\/29316"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/29284"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=29281"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=29281"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=29281"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}