{"id":26246,"date":"2024-05-29T09:31:36","date_gmt":"2024-05-29T07:31:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/?p=26246"},"modified":"2024-05-29T09:31:36","modified_gmt":"2024-05-29T07:31:36","slug":"the-beginning-of-the-end-or-the-end-of-the-beginning","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/china\/the-beginning-of-the-end-or-the-end-of-the-beginning","title":{"rendered":"The beginning of the end, or the end of the beginning?"},"content":{"rendered":"

A trade deficit must be offset by financial inflows to maintain a minimum level of equilibrium.<\/p>\n

The United States runs a significant and constant trade deficit, which they manage to finance through the sale of Treasury bonds, bought by China and other governments\/central banks.<\/p>\n

The deal is as follows and is an integral part of the trade strategy:<\/p>\n

sell more goods to the United States and support their trade deficit by purchasing Treasury bonds. The recycling is almost perfect.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

A subtle but notable shift has been occurring over the past few months, with these Treasury bonds primarily being acquired by private foreign investors seeking returns due to the current level of interest rates. However, these investors are not reliable as they will turn away as soon as the yields decrease.<\/p>\n

Western leaders believe they control the situation and continually issue criticisms and demands towards China, which perplexes the Chinese since, after all, they are the creditors of the United States.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Observation:<\/em><\/p>\n

the current sales of US Treasury bonds by the Chinese have reached record levels and could trigger a major fiscal crisis in the United States.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

The Chinese are making a straightforward trade: US Treasury bonds for gold.<\/p>\n

See for yourself the evolution of their reserves.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Possible consequences?<\/em><\/p>\n

Some simple models suggest that the standard of living in the United States is about 27% too high<\/strong> relative to their trade deficit.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A trade deficit must be offset by financial inflows to maintain a minimum level of equilibrium. The United States runs a significant and constant trade deficit, which they manage to finance through the sale of Treasury bonds, bought by China and other governments\/central banks. The deal is as follows and is an integral part of…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":26078,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"give_campaign_id":0,"_crdt_document":"","_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"mc4wp_mailchimp_campaign":[],"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"_wpas_customize_per_network":false},"categories":[648941287,648941628,648942282],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-26246","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-china","category-dollar-2","category-financial-crisis"],"yoast_head":"\nThe beginning of the end, or the end of the beginning? - Michel Santi<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/china\/the-beginning-of-the-end-or-the-end-of-the-beginning\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The beginning of the end, or the end of the beginning? - Michel Santi\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"A trade deficit must be offset by financial inflows to maintain a minimum level of equilibrium. 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For it, war is a matter of developing excessive trading relationships. Put another way, for China,the defence of its economic interests is an extension of war. 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Another differentiated point of view that we have is that Trump will pursue a weak dollar policy rather than imposing\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "tariffs"","block_context":{"text":"tariffs","link":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/category\/tariffs"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/Scott-Bessent.jpg?fit=1170%2C471&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/Scott-Bessent.jpg?fit=1170%2C471&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/Scott-Bessent.jpg?fit=1170%2C471&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/Scott-Bessent.jpg?fit=1170%2C471&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/Scott-Bessent.jpg?fit=1170%2C471&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":29729,"url":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/financial-crisis\/perfect-storm-in-the-land-of-tsunamis","url_meta":{"origin":26246,"position":3},"title":"Perfect storm in the land of tsunamis","author":"Michel Santi","date":"June 30, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"\u00a0 The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is teetering on the edge of a financial abyss. As of March 31, 2025, it holds \u00a5575.9 trillion (US$3.97 trillion) in Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs), representing 52% of Japan\u2019s total public debt. For years, its massive bond-buying program\u2014part of an ultra-loose monetary policy\u2014flooded the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "financial crisis"","block_context":{"text":"financial crisis","link":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/category\/financial-crisis"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/BOJ-losses.jpg?fit=1200%2C668&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/BOJ-losses.jpg?fit=1200%2C668&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/BOJ-losses.jpg?fit=1200%2C668&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/BOJ-losses.jpg?fit=1200%2C668&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/BOJ-losses.jpg?fit=1200%2C668&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":28804,"url":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/financial-crisis\/tariffs","url_meta":{"origin":26246,"position":4},"title":"Trump\u2019s Tariffs: Economic Voodoo at Work","author":"Michel Santi","date":"April 7, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"\"They are to economics what creationism is to biology, and astrology is to astronomy,\" tweeted Larry Summers, former U.S. Secretary of the Treasury. A statement that highlights the sheer absurdity \u2014 even outright foolishness \u2014 of the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration. Why then has Lesotho, one of the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "financial crisis"","block_context":{"text":"financial crisis","link":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/category\/financial-crisis"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Gnk2Z6rW8AASGdE.jpg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Gnk2Z6rW8AASGdE.jpg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Gnk2Z6rW8AASGdE.jpg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Gnk2Z6rW8AASGdE.jpg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Gnk2Z6rW8AASGdE.jpg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":13643,"url":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/isil\/islamic-state","url_meta":{"origin":26246,"position":5},"title":"Islamic State: from terrorism to economic regression","author":"Michel Santi","date":"October 17, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"The film posted online by Daech on the 1st of September last year lasts nearly an hour and appears in the style of a documentary, shows statistical data and calls upon \u201cexperts\u201d. \u201cThe rise of the Khalifah and the Return of the Gold Dinar\u201d explains the theological motives which are\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "ISIL"","block_context":{"text":"ISIL","link":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/category\/isil"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/the-rise-of-the-khilafah-return-of-the-gold-dinar-33.png?fit=627%2C335&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/the-rise-of-the-khilafah-return-of-the-gold-dinar-33.png?fit=627%2C335&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/the-rise-of-the-khilafah-return-of-the-gold-dinar-33.png?fit=627%2C335&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26246","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=26246"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26246\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":26251,"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26246\/revisions\/26251"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/26078"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=26246"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=26246"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=26246"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}