{"id":25852,"date":"2024-03-25T17:56:23","date_gmt":"2024-03-25T16:56:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/?p=25852"},"modified":"2024-03-25T17:56:23","modified_gmt":"2024-03-25T16:56:23","slug":"no-more-bets","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/real-estate-crisis\/no-more-bets","title":{"rendered":"No more bets ?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"25854\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/real-estate-crisis\/no-more-bets\/attachment\/home-prices\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/home-prices-1.jpg?fit=975%2C774&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"975,774\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"home prices\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/home-prices-1.jpg?fit=975%2C774&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/home-prices-1.jpg?resize=975%2C774&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" width=\"975\" height=\"774\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-25854\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/home-prices-1.jpg?w=975&amp;ssl=1 975w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/home-prices-1.jpg?resize=300%2C238&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/home-prices-1.jpg?resize=768%2C610&amp;ssl=1 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 975px) 100vw, 975px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Since mid-2022, real estate prices in the United States have dropped by an average of 20%, compared to a total of 23% during the cataclysmic subprime crisis. <\/p>\n<p>It was 23% at the time from 2007 to 2010, whereas we&#8217;re dealing with a 20% decline over 20 months now. <\/p>\n<p>This would suggest that the collapse is far from over in the current cycle.<\/p>\n<p>Struggling, US banks are resorting to offering discounted mortgages and even offering a first year at 1.99% interest, putting their balance sheets at risk as they necessarily borrow at higher rates.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"25849\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/real-estate-crisis\/no-more-bets\/attachment\/hypotheques-2\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/hypotheques.png?fit=746%2C462&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"746,462\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"hypoth\u00e8ques\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/hypotheques.png?fit=746%2C462&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/hypotheques.png?resize=746%2C462&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" width=\"746\" height=\"462\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-25849\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/hypotheques.png?w=746&amp;ssl=1 746w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/hypotheques.png?resize=300%2C186&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 746px) 100vw, 746px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>When the US catches a cold, Europe sneezes: a real estate crisis plus a banking crisis: who can top that?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Since mid-2022, real estate prices in the United States have dropped by an average of 20%, compared to a total of 23% during the cataclysmic subprime crisis. It was 23% at the time from 2007 to 2010, whereas we&#8217;re dealing with a 20% decline over 20 months now. This would suggest that the collapse is&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":25849,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"give_campaign_id":0,"_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"mc4wp_mailchimp_campaign":[],"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"{title}\n\n{excerpt}\n\n{url}","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"_wpas_customize_per_network":false,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[648942559,648942558],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-25852","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-banking-crisis","category-real-estate-crisis"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>No more bets ? - Michel Santi<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/real-estate-crisis\/no-more-bets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"No more bets ? - Michel Santi\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Since mid-2022, real estate prices in the United States have dropped by an average of 20%, compared to a total of 23% during the cataclysmic subprime crisis. 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Economic stagnation becomes secular from the moment the money stops flowing, that is, once the investor keeps his precious cash in his bank account and that bank is no longer able to recycle it\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;growth&quot;","block_context":{"text":"growth","link":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/category\/growth"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":13614,"url":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/money-creation\/the-real-estate-standard","url_meta":{"origin":25852,"position":1},"title":"The real estate standard","author":"Michel Santi","date":"April 28, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"At the height of the 2008 financial crisis, the U.S. government seriously considered nationalizing a large chunk of the American banking system. Instead, what it did was take effective control of the massive U.S. mortgage market. Without Federal guarantees and full government support, the U.S. real estate market (already under\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Money creation&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Money creation","link":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/category\/money-creation"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/subprime-meltdown.jpg?fit=504%2C440&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":13700,"url":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/real-estate\/when-real-estate-threatens-growth","url_meta":{"origin":25852,"position":2},"title":"When real estate threatens growth","author":"Michel Santi","date":"April 13, 2016","format":false,"excerpt":"It\u2019s not a coincidence if real estate prices \u2013 relatively stable up until now \u2013 suffered unhealthy volatility at the dawn of the 1990s. This phenomenon was the direct consequence of integrating the banking and financial systems together because deregulation and innovations such as securitisation intensified the flow of cross-border\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;bubble&quot;","block_context":{"text":"bubble","link":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/category\/bubble"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/subprime-mortgages.jpg?fit=500%2C350&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":21601,"url":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/china\/china-infected-by-financial-capitalism","url_meta":{"origin":25852,"position":3},"title":"China infected by financial capitalism","author":"Michel Santi","date":"September 20, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"\u00a0 The weight of the real estate industry has now become significant in the Chinese economy. Whereas it made up 5% of GDP in 1995, it is now one of the country\u2019s main growth drivers, coming to more than 30% of economic activity. It is more or less at the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;China&quot;","block_context":{"text":"China","link":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/category\/china"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/Evergrande.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/Evergrande.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/Evergrande.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/Evergrande.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/Evergrande.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":26678,"url":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/china\/japanification-of-china","url_meta":{"origin":25852,"position":4},"title":"Japanification of China","author":"Michel Santi","date":"August 29, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"\u00a0 \u00a0 Extended periods of deflation, economic stagnation, a declining real estate market, financial pressure and stress impacting households, businesses, and the state. All signals suggesting credible parallels between today's China and Japan in the 1990s. China risks becoming an aging and heavily indebted country before it becomes a wealthy\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;China&quot;","block_context":{"text":"China","link":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/category\/china"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/Chine-Japon.jpg?fit=1200%2C676&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/Chine-Japon.jpg?fit=1200%2C676&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/Chine-Japon.jpg?fit=1200%2C676&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/Chine-Japon.jpg?fit=1200%2C676&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/Chine-Japon.jpg?fit=1200%2C676&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":26118,"url":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/bubble\/china-debt-real-estate","url_meta":{"origin":25852,"position":5},"title":"When China Gives in&#8230;","author":"Michel Santi","date":"May 9, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"\u00a0 \u00a0 China is on life support: 18 units of credit in China only equate to 1 unit of GDP growth. A cornerstone of household wealth at 65% of their assets, the country's real estate sector, along with indebted regional governments to the tune of $9 trillion (over half the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;bubble&quot;","block_context":{"text":"bubble","link":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/category\/bubble"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/china-credit.jpg?fit=1200%2C648&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/china-credit.jpg?fit=1200%2C648&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/china-credit.jpg?fit=1200%2C648&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/china-credit.jpg?fit=1200%2C648&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/china-credit.jpg?fit=1200%2C648&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25852","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=25852"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25852\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":25856,"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25852\/revisions\/25856"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/25849"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=25852"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=25852"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=25852"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}