{"id":25852,"date":"2024-03-25T17:56:23","date_gmt":"2024-03-25T16:56:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/?p=25852"},"modified":"2024-03-25T17:56:23","modified_gmt":"2024-03-25T16:56:23","slug":"no-more-bets","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/real-estate-crisis\/no-more-bets","title":{"rendered":"No more bets ?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"25854\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/real-estate-crisis\/no-more-bets\/attachment\/home-prices\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/home-prices-1.jpg?fit=975%2C774&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"975,774\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"home prices\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/home-prices-1.jpg?fit=975%2C774&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/home-prices-1.jpg?resize=975%2C774&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" width=\"975\" height=\"774\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-25854\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/home-prices-1.jpg?w=975&amp;ssl=1 975w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/home-prices-1.jpg?resize=300%2C238&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/home-prices-1.jpg?resize=768%2C610&amp;ssl=1 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 975px) 100vw, 975px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Since mid-2022, real estate prices in the United States have dropped by an average of 20%, compared to a total of 23% during the cataclysmic subprime crisis. <\/p>\n<p>It was 23% at the time from 2007 to 2010, whereas we&#8217;re dealing with a 20% decline over 20 months now. <\/p>\n<p>This would suggest that the collapse is far from over in the current cycle.<\/p>\n<p>Struggling, US banks are resorting to offering discounted mortgages and even offering a first year at 1.99% interest, putting their balance sheets at risk as they necessarily borrow at higher rates.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"25849\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/real-estate-crisis\/no-more-bets\/attachment\/hypotheques-2\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/hypotheques.png?fit=746%2C462&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"746,462\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"hypoth\u00e8ques\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/hypotheques.png?fit=746%2C462&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/hypotheques.png?resize=746%2C462&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" width=\"746\" height=\"462\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-25849\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/hypotheques.png?w=746&amp;ssl=1 746w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/hypotheques.png?resize=300%2C186&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 746px) 100vw, 746px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>When the US catches a cold, Europe sneezes: a real estate crisis plus a banking crisis: who can top that?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Since mid-2022, real estate prices in the United States have dropped by an average of 20%, compared to a total of 23% during the cataclysmic subprime crisis. It was 23% at the time from 2007 to 2010, whereas we&#8217;re dealing with a 20% decline over 20 months now. This would suggest that the collapse is&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":25849,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"give_campaign_id":0,"_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_wpcom_ai_launchpad_first_post":false,"mc4wp_mailchimp_campaign":[],"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"{title}\n\n{excerpt}\n\n{url}","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"_wpas_customize_per_network":false,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[648942559,648942558],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-25852","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-banking-crisis","category-real-estate-crisis"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>No more bets ? - Michel Santi<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/real-estate-crisis\/no-more-bets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"No more bets ? - Michel Santi\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Since mid-2022, real estate prices in the United States have dropped by an average of 20%, compared to a total of 23% during the cataclysmic subprime crisis. 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Without Federal guarantees and full government support, the U.S. real estate market (already under\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Money creation&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Money creation","link":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/category\/money-creation"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/subprime-meltdown.jpg?fit=504%2C440&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":25829,"url":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/austerity-2\/the-year-0-of-germany","url_meta":{"origin":25852,"position":2},"title":"The Year 0 of Germany","author":"Michel Santi","date":"March 20, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"This is striking! The energy crisis of 2022 has been the worst economic crisis in Germany since WWII when looking at the decline of real wages. The increase in the price level is very likely permanent \u2013 those with savings have unexpectedly lost some of their purchasing power. The real\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;austerity&quot;","block_context":{"text":"austerity","link":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/category\/austerity-2"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/allemagne-0-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C727&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/allemagne-0-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C727&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/allemagne-0-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C727&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/allemagne-0-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C727&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/allemagne-0-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C727&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":27581,"url":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/banking-crisis\/central-banks-the-new-weak-link-in-our-system","url_meta":{"origin":25852,"position":3},"title":"Central Banks: The New Weak Link in Our System?","author":"Michel Santi","date":"February 22, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"The European Central Bank announces a loss, the largest since its creation, of 8.3 billion euros for the 2024 fiscal year. By choice, or by lack of rigor, it has paid to banks interest rates far too high in relation to the returns on the various bonds that it holds.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;banking crisis&quot;","block_context":{"text":"banking crisis","link":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/category\/banking-crisis"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/GkTG59cWAAA8z7f.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/GkTG59cWAAA8z7f.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/GkTG59cWAAA8z7f.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/GkTG59cWAAA8z7f.jpg?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/GkTG59cWAAA8z7f.jpg?resize=1050%2C600&ssl=1 3x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/GkTG59cWAAA8z7f.jpg?resize=1400%2C800&ssl=1 4x"},"classes":[]},{"id":20279,"url":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/coronavirus-2\/this-might-not-be-a-crisis","url_meta":{"origin":25852,"position":4},"title":"This might not be a crisis!","author":"Michel Santi","date":"May 9, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"\u00a0 The comparison between the Covid-19-stamped economic crisis and the 2007-2008 crisis is fascinating. Do you remember: at the time, the real economy was suffering the direct consequences of an overindebted banking system that made heavy use of leverage. Faced with this existential threat, the response was rather classic, in\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;coronavirus&quot;","block_context":{"text":"coronavirus","link":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/category\/coronavirus-2"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/bad-bank.jpg?fit=500%2C361&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":23812,"url":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/neoliberalism\/the-financial-crisis-will-not-happen","url_meta":{"origin":25852,"position":5},"title":"The financial crisis will not happen","author":"Michel Santi","date":"January 5, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"\u00a0 This phenomenon occurs quite rarely, always in the event of liquidity crises, i.e. in times of great financial stress such as in 2008 or at the start of the Covid crisis. It translates into a gluttonous appetite for the US dollar sought after by the entire planet because it\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;neoliberalism&quot;","block_context":{"text":"neoliberalism","link":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/category\/neoliberalism"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/robinet.png?fit=897%2C672&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/robinet.png?fit=897%2C672&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/robinet.png?fit=897%2C672&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/robinet.png?fit=897%2C672&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]}],"amp_enabled":true,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/hypotheques.png?fit=746%2C462&ssl=1","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25852","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=25852"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25852\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":25856,"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25852\/revisions\/25856"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/25849"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=25852"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=25852"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=25852"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}