{"id":22358,"date":"2022-04-24T15:08:18","date_gmt":"2022-04-24T13:08:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/?p=22358"},"modified":"2022-04-24T15:08:18","modified_gmt":"2022-04-24T13:08:18","slug":"china-a-disaster-in-the-making","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/china\/china-a-disaster-in-the-making","title":{"rendered":"China: a disaster in the making"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"22354\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/china\/china-a-disaster-in-the-making\/attachment\/0-covid-chine-2\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/0-covid-chine.webp?fit=740%2C416&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"740,416\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"0 covid chine\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/0-covid-chine.webp?fit=740%2C416&amp;ssl=1\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-22354\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/0-covid-chine.webp?resize=300%2C169&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"169\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/0-covid-chine.webp?resize=300%2C169&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/0-covid-chine.webp?w=740&amp;ssl=1 740w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/p>\n<h3><\/h3>\n<h3 style=\"margin-bottom: 12.0pt; line-height: 19.2pt; background: white;\"><strong><span lang=\"EN-GB\" style=\"font-family: 'Arial Narrow',sans-serif; color: #222222;\">China\u2019s population will have been split in two by the end of this century. The reputable British scientific journal <i>The Lancet<\/i> foresees the number of Chinese people collapsing to 730 million, dropping from 1.4 billion today. Thanks to the Covid crisis, China\u2019s birth rate has fallen by 30% in the last two years, which is the biggest decrease since the terrible period of the great famine that spanned the late \u201850s and early 60\u2019s. In the world\u2019s most populous country, only 10.6 million babies were born in 2021, which is a figure unprecedented since the Communists\u2019 rise to power in 1949, and marriages have also fallen by 12% since 2019.<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n<h3 style=\"margin-bottom: 12.0pt; line-height: 19.2pt; background: white;\"><strong><span lang=\"EN-GB\" style=\"font-family: 'Arial Narrow',sans-serif; color: #222222;\">China is of course suffering head-on the consequences of its only-child policy \u2013 introduced in 1980 \u2013 that has had devastating consequences on many levels. But it is not just the crucial renewal rate of its population that has been disrupted. This measure, that has a civilisation-wide reach, has also left a deep scar on the Chinese people who have widely accepted \u2013 had it etched into their genes even \u2013 not having more than one child per family. Additionally, the explosion of the national property market and the high price of a good education have made work a losing battle. The result of all this is a situation where China\u2019s familial structure is now known as a \u201c4-2-1\u201d formation, with 4 grandparents, 2 spouses, and 1 infant. It is therefore not surprising that Chinese society has adapted to this constraint and the financial burden of supporting grandparents, leading to the inevitable consequence of having only one child. The labour market indeed remains in disarray with potential employers routinely interviewing young female candidates for a job on the basis of their desire to have a child and on their relationship status, if they share their life with a partner basically. This veritable discrimination against young women in the Chinese labour force is clearly sapping their career prospects as they are accused of not being able to properly fulfil both their professional and familial responsibilities.<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n<h3 style=\"margin-bottom: 12.0pt; line-height: 19.2pt; background: white;\"><strong><span lang=\"EN-GB\" style=\"font-family: 'Arial Narrow',sans-serif; color: #222222;\">The extreme precariousness of China\u2019s demography is therefore not attributable to the pandemic, but indeed to the historic propensity of the country\u2019s leaders to control their population\u2026.which is still rife, demonstrated by the widespread, drastic, and aberrant lockdown measures that are currently in force across the country\u2019s cities. It goes without saying that this nonsensical policy of zero-Covid is exacerbating the problem of Chinese infertility since it discourages marriage, with lockdowns being announced unilaterally as soon as one sole case surfaces in a certain area, or even one apartment block. However, China\u2019s regime is all too engaged \u2013 ensconced even \u2013 in this policy to now recognise the absolute counterproductivity of it \u2013 and not only in terms of demographics! \u2013 and to backtrack on it. How can President Xi Jinping renounce \u2013 without admitting his own mistakes \u2013 this dogma of zero-Covid that he has made the bedrock of his policies, as he prepares to celebrate its triumph at the Party Congress in November?<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>China\u2019s population will have been split in two by the end of this century. The reputable British scientific journal The Lancet foresees the number of Chinese people collapsing to 730 million, dropping from 1.4 billion today. Thanks to the Covid crisis, China\u2019s birth rate has fallen by 30% in the last two years, which is&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":22354,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"give_campaign_id":0,"_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"mc4wp_mailchimp_campaign":[],"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"{title}\n\n{excerpt}\n\n{url}","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"_wpas_customize_per_network":false,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[648941287,648941698],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-22358","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-china","category-demography"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>China: a disaster in the making - Michel Santi<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/china\/china-a-disaster-in-the-making\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"China: a disaster in the making - Michel Santi\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"China\u2019s population will have been split in two by the end of this century. The reputable British scientific journal The Lancet foresees the number of Chinese people collapsing to 730 million, dropping from 1.4 billion today. 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After the collapse of the 300 billion dollar Evergrande, the biggest real estate company in China, the issue \u2013 albeit not a recent one \u2013 of\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;capitalism&quot;","block_context":{"text":"capitalism","link":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/category\/capitalism"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/10\/villes-fantomes.png?fit=550%2C381&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/10\/villes-fantomes.png?fit=550%2C381&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/10\/villes-fantomes.png?fit=550%2C381&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":26678,"url":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/china\/japanification-of-china","url_meta":{"origin":22358,"position":1},"title":"Japanification of China","author":"Michel Santi","date":"August 29, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"\u00a0 \u00a0 Extended periods of deflation, economic stagnation, a declining real estate market, financial pressure and stress impacting households, businesses, and the state. All signals suggesting credible parallels between today's China and Japan in the 1990s. China risks becoming an aging and heavily indebted country before it becomes a wealthy\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;China&quot;","block_context":{"text":"China","link":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/category\/china"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/Chine-Japon.jpg?fit=1200%2C676&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/Chine-Japon.jpg?fit=1200%2C676&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/Chine-Japon.jpg?fit=1200%2C676&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/Chine-Japon.jpg?fit=1200%2C676&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/Chine-Japon.jpg?fit=1200%2C676&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":25080,"url":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/china\/china-revolt-of-the-partys-elderly-leaders","url_meta":{"origin":22358,"position":2},"title":"China: Revolt of the Party&#8217;s Elderly Leaders ?","author":"Michel Santi","date":"September 7, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"In Beijing, it's the revolt of the elderly! Those who have led the Communist Party, these former leaders who presided over and orchestrated China's rise to power until Xi's accession, are now demanding accountability. It has recently come to light that they gathered in late August in the Hebei Province,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;China&quot;","block_context":{"text":"China","link":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/category\/china"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/Xi-Li.jpg?fit=1060%2C523&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/Xi-Li.jpg?fit=1060%2C523&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/Xi-Li.jpg?fit=1060%2C523&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/Xi-Li.jpg?fit=1060%2C523&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/Xi-Li.jpg?fit=1060%2C523&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":21839,"url":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/china\/china-is-folding-under-the-weight-of-its-own-contradictions","url_meta":{"origin":22358,"position":3},"title":"China is folding under the weight of its own contradictions","author":"Michel Santi","date":"January 3, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"\u00a0 The gap between the US and China remains wide, with China\u2019s GDP still at only 70% of America\u2019s. Evidently, China\u2019s economic progress has been spectacular, and in this light the 14 trillion dollars that make up China\u2019s aggregate product is nothing short of a miracle compared to the state\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;China&quot;","block_context":{"text":"China","link":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/category\/china"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/Chine-Xi-jinping-baisse-pauvrete-empeche-lexplosion-inegalites_0.jpg?fit=729%2C469&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/Chine-Xi-jinping-baisse-pauvrete-empeche-lexplosion-inegalites_0.jpg?fit=729%2C469&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/Chine-Xi-jinping-baisse-pauvrete-empeche-lexplosion-inegalites_0.jpg?fit=729%2C469&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/Chine-Xi-jinping-baisse-pauvrete-empeche-lexplosion-inegalites_0.jpg?fit=729%2C469&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":24627,"url":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/european-union\/europe","url_meta":{"origin":22358,"position":4},"title":"Europe: a sleeping beauty","author":"Michel Santi","date":"April 24, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"How not to be shocked by the near-economic disappearance of Europe? The \"acceleration of the European economy\" mentioned by Emmanuel Macron in China this April is a tale that no longer comforts or deceives anyone. Readers: your first electric car will most likely be Chinese, as China has now surpassed\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;China&quot;","block_context":{"text":"China","link":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/category\/china"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/europe.png?fit=1200%2C801&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/europe.png?fit=1200%2C801&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/europe.png?fit=1200%2C801&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/europe.png?fit=1200%2C801&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/europe.png?fit=1200%2C801&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":25036,"url":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/china\/china-a-shadow-of-itself","url_meta":{"origin":22358,"position":5},"title":"China: a shadow of itself","author":"Michel Santi","date":"August 27, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"China has become one of the most expensive countries in the world to raise and support a family. The collapse of consumption and overall living standards is wreaking havoc among young Chinese couples, who now have little motivation to start a family. Chinese fertility is declining rapidly despite the pro-natalist\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;China&quot;","block_context":{"text":"China","link":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/category\/china"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/ombre-chine.jpg?fit=750%2C370&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/ombre-chine.jpg?fit=750%2C370&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/ombre-chine.jpg?fit=750%2C370&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/ombre-chine.jpg?fit=750%2C370&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]}],"amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22358","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=22358"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22358\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":22361,"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22358\/revisions\/22361"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/22354"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=22358"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=22358"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=22358"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}