{"id":20341,"date":"2020-06-08T19:20:16","date_gmt":"2020-06-08T17:20:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/?p=20341"},"modified":"2020-06-08T19:20:16","modified_gmt":"2020-06-08T17:20:16","slug":"700-years-of-interest-rates-to-predict-the-future","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/capitalism\/700-years-of-interest-rates-to-predict-the-future","title":{"rendered":"700 years of interest rates to predict the future"},"content":{"rendered":"<h3><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"20337\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/capitalism\/700-years-of-interest-rates-to-predict-the-future\/attachment\/cgyam_qw4aalccn-2\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/CgyAm_qW4AALCCn.jpg?fit=600%2C450&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"600,450\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"CgyAm_qW4AALCCn\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/CgyAm_qW4AALCCn.jpg?fit=600%2C450&amp;ssl=1\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-20337\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/CgyAm_qW4AALCCn.jpg?resize=300%2C225&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"225\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/CgyAm_qW4AALCCn.jpg?resize=300%2C225&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/CgyAm_qW4AALCCn.jpg?resize=400%2C300&amp;ssl=1 400w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/CgyAm_qW4AALCCn.jpg?resize=200%2C150&amp;ssl=1 200w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/CgyAm_qW4AALCCn.jpg?resize=120%2C90&amp;ssl=1 120w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/CgyAm_qW4AALCCn.jpg?w=600&amp;ssl=1 600w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/h3>\n<h3>The bankers of Florence \u2013 the inventors of modern finance \u2013imposed a two-figure interest rate in return for their loans. The usurer Shylock, in Shakespeare\u2019s <em>The Merchant of Venice<\/em>, was happy with 8%, whereas this service charge on debt had fallen to around 4% at the start of World War One, and is now at 0 because savers aren\u2019t getting anything anymore. In fact, the magnitude of the drop in the price of money these last few centuries has been quite spectacular. So, indeed, the nature of the interest demanded by the Medici\u2019s was not of the same order as those imposed nowadays by financial establishments, and this is mainly due to fundamentally different social systems, those being feudalism and capitalism. At the time, the aristocrats\u2019 and clergy\u2019s fortune essentially came from charges, taxes and commitments taken on by the people, and these came mainly in the form of crops, edible livestock, military service and various other tasks.<\/h3>\n<p><!--more--><\/p>\n<h3>\nThe fact remains that there is a strong tendency that is undeniable, as a thorough <a href=\"https:\/\/papers.ssrn.com\/sol3\/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3485734\">study from Harvard<\/a> has shown, recounting the evolution of interest rates over the last seven centuries, coming to the conclusion that we will live in a world of widespread negative rates well into the halfway point of this century. This prognostic is greatly consequential \u2013 not just in the management of the economy post Covid-19 \u2013 but also and above all for the future of capitalism. I have been <a href=\"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/capitalism\/somethings-got-to-give\">talking about it<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/modern-monetary-theory\/the-monetary-theory-mmt-that-has-nothing-modern-about-it\">writing about it<\/a> for many years, following on from Larry Summers who got the idea from Alvin Hansen, by making an obvious observation, being that capitalism as it is currently is no longer a generator of growth.This \u201csecular stagnation\u201d that we are suffering, underpinned by demographic problems, anaemic productivity, and declining education standards, will get significantly worse following the pandemic and will lead to a world of negative rates, most probably before the time predicted by the Harvard study.<\/h3>\n<h3>The transmission belt for this is the quest for financial security \u2013 the famous Anglo-Saxon idea of \u201cflight to quality\u201d \u2013 that will be felt even more acutely after the health crisis and the post-coronavirus economic uncertainties, and that will result in a significant decrease in the government bond yields of our democracies with integrated economies because these present a tiny risk of payment default. It is therefore the rush by savers and investors \u2013 not only of the third age but also those seeking protection and stability following the unprecedent tumults of the last few months \u2013 who will cause an irreparable toppling of our interest rates into unchartered territory, and that will plunge below the 0 rate threshold for good. But so, how can we curb \u2013 or at the very least redirect \u2013 this capitalism to a bipartite trajectory that would allow both the increase of profits for those who invest in the economy and also the reduction of our debts alongside it?<\/h3>\n<h3>One visionary \u2013 Karl Marx \u2013 had theorised this long-term collapse of the rate of return on capital, predicted this inevitable erosion of profits for those who invest in the means of production, and thereby anticipated the growth of the real economy thus becoming insignificant. How do we now persuade the purveyors of capital to take accumulated risks \u2013 in other words to redirect a part of their abundant liquidity towards business \u2013 when confidence has disappeared ? Today, Marx would tell us to stop obsessing over debt, and would suggest that governments learn to live with levels of public deficits permanently much higher that 100% of GDP, as long as they remain stable.<\/h3>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The bankers of Florence \u2013 the inventors of modern finance \u2013imposed a two-figure interest rate in return for their loans. The usurer Shylock, in Shakespeare\u2019s The Merchant of Venice, was happy with 8%, whereas this service charge on debt had fallen to around 4% at the start of World War One, and is now at&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":20337,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"give_campaign_id":0,"_crdt_document":"","_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"mc4wp_mailchimp_campaign":[],"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"_wpas_customize_per_network":false},"categories":[648941282,648941278,648941686],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-20341","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-capitalism","category-interest-rates","category-secular-stagnation"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>700 years of interest rates to predict the future - Michel Santi<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/capitalism\/700-years-of-interest-rates-to-predict-the-future\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"700 years of interest rates to predict the future - Michel Santi\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The bankers of Florence \u2013 the inventors of modern finance \u2013imposed a two-figure interest rate in return for their loans. 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Since interest rates and monetary creation are the only weapons still at the disposal of the only public institutions that still wield some sort of power in our modern world, their initiation\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;bubble&quot;","block_context":{"text":"bubble","link":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/category\/bubble"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/Ce93s9lVAAAb6FR.jpg?fit=600%2C337&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/Ce93s9lVAAAb6FR.jpg?fit=600%2C337&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/Ce93s9lVAAAb6FR.jpg?fit=600%2C337&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":22483,"url":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/turkish-lira\/turkey-autopsy-of-a-debacle","url_meta":{"origin":20341,"position":1},"title":"Turkey: autopsy of a debacle","author":"Michel Santi","date":"May 30, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"\u00a0 This country got lost in grandiose real estate projects that have turned out to be barely profitable. 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And why do the right and left \u2013 in all Western countries \u2013 appear to be applying the same economic policy, with only a few cosmetic nuances in difference? Where are the contentions of old that we used to have and which would pit\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Central Banks&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Central Banks","link":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/category\/central-banks"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":24036,"url":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/gold-standard\/end-game","url_meta":{"origin":20341,"position":3},"title":"End game","author":"Michel Santi","date":"February 12, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"\u00a0 The gold standard was a system where the currency of a country was linked to gold and which could materialize either by defining a certain quantity of metal in exchange for the American dollar, or indirectly through currencies having a fixed parity against the greenback. 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It is the very fabric of our economy that has again been shaken as our world sinks further and\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Central Banks&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Central Banks","link":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/category\/central-banks"},"img":{"alt_text":"fork-in-the-road","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/fork-in-the-road-225x300.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":19426,"url":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/capitalism-2\/the-zombies-of-capitalism","url_meta":{"origin":20341,"position":5},"title":"The zombies of capitalism","author":"Michel Santi","date":"May 9, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"The policy of zero interest rates was crucial in avoiding total financial collapse following the subprime crisis, the credit crunch, and Europe\u2019s sovereign debt psychodrama, just as it will play a major role over the next few episodes of stock market crashes and exacerbated volatility that hurts the real economy.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;capitalism&quot;","block_context":{"text":"capitalism","link":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/category\/capitalism-2"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/05\/zombie-300x169.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20341","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=20341"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20341\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":20343,"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20341\/revisions\/20343"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/20337"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=20341"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=20341"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=20341"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}