{"id":20279,"date":"2020-05-09T23:28:37","date_gmt":"2020-05-09T21:28:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/?p=20279"},"modified":"2020-05-09T23:28:37","modified_gmt":"2020-05-09T21:28:37","slug":"this-might-not-be-a-crisis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/coronavirus-2\/this-might-not-be-a-crisis","title":{"rendered":"This might not be a crisis!"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"20273\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/coronavirus-2\/this-might-not-be-a-crisis\/attachment\/bad-bank-2\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/bad-bank.jpg?fit=500%2C361&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"500,361\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"bad bank\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/bad-bank.jpg?fit=500%2C361&amp;ssl=1\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-20273\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/bad-bank.jpg?resize=300%2C217&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"217\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/bad-bank.jpg?resize=300%2C217&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/bad-bank.jpg?w=500&amp;ssl=1 500w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>The comparison between the Covid-19-stamped economic crisis and the 2007-2008 crisis is fascinating. Do you remember: at the time, the real economy was suffering the direct consequences of an overindebted banking system that made heavy use of leverage. Faced with this existential threat, the response was rather classic, in that it consisted of creating relief mechanisms for these banks, together with changes to prudential rules. In the post-lockdown world, the situation will be the total opposite because it\u2019s the banking system that, henceforth, will be confronted with a real economy that \u2013 in turn \u2013 will find itself overindebted.<\/p>\n<p>A restructuring<\/p>\n<p>During the lockdown, many companies\u2019 liquidity and incomes have been hung out to dry, and production meant to happen during this period has been lost forever. This is why companies that are still standing and will remain alive for the weeks to come are hoping for a resurrection of these cash flows, but with the clear objective of recovering as quickly as possible, of reassuring their employees, and of rekindling their previous revenue projections, and not to redirect a huge part of this liquidity to paying off their borrowings or even the interest on their debts. It is therefore a restructuring that must be introduced in order to definitely avoid a situation where bank loans cause more harm to \u2013 or even spell the end for \u2013 our economic conditions. It is therefore crucial for all actors, like for the recovery of a seriously compromised growth rate, that simplified administrative procedures be put in place that would allow a debt restructuring for businesses, because their insolvency is not at all their own doing nor the result of poor management but \u2013 as well all know \u2013 the direct consequence of the pandemic.<\/p>\n<p>Buying bad debtsback from banks<\/p>\n<p>Additionally, if our politico-economic leaders\u2019 worry is indeed about relaunching the economy in the best conditions and in the shortest timeframe possible, it is also just as important to encourage banks to lend, but they will only be motivated to do so \u2013 and will not be able to from the simple point of view of regulations \u2013 if they are relieved of their bad loans. In fact, even if the government acts as guarantor for the borrowings of enfeebled companies, the banks will only be able to involve themselves in matters of new loans that would allow us to rebuild and facilitate new investments if the previous loans disappear from their balance sheets! The government \u2013 or Europe rather \u2013 will therefore have to hastily introduce a vehicle that will buy back these bad, rotten loans from the banks, and as quickly as possible, so that their cleansed balance sheets allow them to fund the recovery.<\/p>\n<p>The alternative?<\/p>\n<p>So yes, it\u2019s us the taxpayers who, ultimately, will have to foot the bill and we have known since 2008 that it\u2019s us \u2013 and not the central banks \u2013 that are the real lenders of last resort. But we live, progress, consume and invest in a Western world that we know is crumbling under debt. This is why our toolbox is alas now reduced to its most basic form, and is why the alternative to the aforementioned solution would be a headfirst plunge into catastrophe.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&nbsp; The comparison between the Covid-19-stamped economic crisis and the 2007-2008 crisis is fascinating. Do you remember: at the time, the real economy was suffering the direct consequences of an overindebted banking system that made heavy use of leverage. Faced with this existential threat, the response was rather classic, in that it consisted of creating&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":20273,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"give_campaign_id":0,"_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"mc4wp_mailchimp_campaign":[],"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"{title}\n\n{excerpt}\n\n{url}","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"_wpas_customize_per_network":false,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[648941701,648941303],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-20279","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-coronavirus-2","category-debt"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>This might not be a crisis! - Michel Santi<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/coronavirus-2\/this-might-not-be-a-crisis\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"This might not be a crisis! - Michel Santi\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"&nbsp; The comparison between the Covid-19-stamped economic crisis and the 2007-2008 crisis is fascinating. 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It\u2019s in this country that in 2001, for the very first time, the famous quantitative easing measures were put in place that tried to break the believed-to-be impenetrable barrier of zero interest rates that had been set in 1999. It was a revolutionary endeavour\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Japan&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Japan","link":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/category\/japan"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/06\/aboratoire.jpg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/06\/aboratoire.jpg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/06\/aboratoire.jpg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/06\/aboratoire.jpg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/06\/aboratoire.jpg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":27581,"url":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/banking-crisis\/central-banks-the-new-weak-link-in-our-system","url_meta":{"origin":20279,"position":1},"title":"Central Banks: The New Weak Link in Our System?","author":"Michel Santi","date":"February 22, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"The European Central Bank announces a loss, the largest since its creation, of 8.3 billion euros for the 2024 fiscal year. By choice, or by lack of rigor, it has paid to banks interest rates far too high in relation to the returns on the various bonds that it holds.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;banking crisis&quot;","block_context":{"text":"banking crisis","link":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/category\/banking-crisis"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/GkTG59cWAAA8z7f.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/GkTG59cWAAA8z7f.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/GkTG59cWAAA8z7f.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/GkTG59cWAAA8z7f.jpg?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/GkTG59cWAAA8z7f.jpg?resize=1050%2C600&ssl=1 3x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/GkTG59cWAAA8z7f.jpg?resize=1400%2C800&ssl=1 4x"},"classes":[]},{"id":20193,"url":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/coronavirus-2\/the-consequences-of-coronavirus-for-dummiesin-economics-and-finance","url_meta":{"origin":20279,"position":2},"title":"The consequences of coronavirus for dummies in economics and finance","author":"Michel Santi","date":"April 14, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"\u00a0 Michel Santi, Michel, I have known you for a long time. You are a financier, an economist, an entrepreneur,a visionary. I always thought you were an unconventional and fascinating person. Despite not understanding much, I always felt a different voice in you, as show your eight publications, seven of\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;coronavirus&quot;","block_context":{"text":"coronavirus","link":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/category\/coronavirus-2"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/entretiens-avec-candide.jpg?fit=353%2C487&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":20105,"url":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/capitalism\/the-testament-of-a-disillusioned-economist","url_meta":{"origin":20279,"position":3},"title":"The testament of a disillusioned economist","author":"Michel Santi","date":"March 17, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"\u00a0 This is my testament. My economic testimony. It\u2019s been 12 years now that I\u2019ve been analysing the crisis. All in all, I\u2019ve been writing about the economy and finance for thirty years. However, it\u2019s from 2007 that I\u2019ve been trying tirelessly, through my books and my articles, to denounce\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;capitalism&quot;","block_context":{"text":"capitalism","link":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/category\/capitalism"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/testament.jpg?fit=660%2C390&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/testament.jpg?fit=660%2C390&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/testament.jpg?fit=660%2C390&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":20433,"url":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/cash-en\/the-other-major-consequence-of-the-coronavirus","url_meta":{"origin":20279,"position":4},"title":"The other major consequence of the Coronavirus!","author":"Michel Santi","date":"July 28, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"\u00a0 \u00a0 Covid-19 has caused a run on cash, at least from the moment that the fears started to grip our Western societies. Intuitively, it is however the opposite of what we might have imagined. Weren\u2019t there fears \u2013 albeit justified \u2013 that the illness could be transmitted by certain\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Cash&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Cash","link":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/category\/cash-en"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/Lautre-cons%C3%A9quence-majeure-du-coronavirus-t%C3%A9l%C3%A9phone.jpg?fit=399%2C300&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":13688,"url":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/central-banks\/the-preordained-disappearance-of-cash","url_meta":{"origin":20279,"position":5},"title":"The preordained disappearance of cash","author":"Michel Santi","date":"February 29, 2016","format":false,"excerpt":"In Sweden, the Church has had to adapt because its followers are carrying less and less cash around with them. It has therefore now become commonplace for churches in places like Stockholm to display their bank details on giant screens during Sunday services, so that church-goers can whip out their\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Central Banks&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Central Banks","link":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/category\/central-banks"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/ABBA.png?fit=500%2C426&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20279","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=20279"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20279\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":20281,"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20279\/revisions\/20281"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/20273"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=20279"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=20279"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=20279"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}