![\"\"](\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/Trump-Obama.jpg?resize=300%2C183&ssl=1\")
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China is about to win the first leg of the trade war against the US. The latest statistics are actually shocking for the US Government, with the trade deficit with China at its highest historical level. These figures \u2013 that show a Chinese surplus of more than 37 billion dollars for the month of September, that being an increase of 4.3% from the month before \u2013 are the strongest signs of the US shooting itself in the foot, or put another way, of this trade war starting to work against its initiators. Isn’t it comical that Trump’s verbal diarrhoea seems to be having the exact opposite results, namely more Chinese exports to the US, whereas Chinese imports \u2013 of soya, for example \u2013 from the US have totally collapsed?<\/p>\n
This confrontation that was triggered at the start of the year by the American President\u2019s simplistic tweet \u2013 \u201cTrade wars are easy to win\u201d \u2013 demonstrates that the reality is often far removed from any theoretical whimsy that has persuaded Trump that this conflict would allow American businesses to produce more nationally, leading to a reduction in the US\u2019s trade deficit. The increase in the price of American imports from China isn’t discouraging American consumers since their deficit against China over the first 9 months of this year stands at 306 billion dollars, compared with 277 billion over the first 9 months of 2017! The excellent shape of America\u2019s economy certainly has a lot to do with it because \u2013 after all \u2013 the best way to reduce a trade deficit is to spark a recession… In any case, the logic of macroeconomics states there should be no fixation on bilateral surpluses (or deficits) in a globalised world, and in a multilateral context.<\/p>\n
The fact remains that the main reason \u2013 from my own analysis \u2013 for this Chinese victory, at least in the first round of this trade war, lies in each country\u2019s governance of business and economic policy. Trump can only dissuade Home Depot or Walmart (for example) from importing from China, whereas Chinese companies are bound to follow directives from Beijing. American imports from China are therefore set to remain steady \u2013 even increasing alongside US growth \u2013 while the Chinese government\u2019s policy stance and its measures in retaliation to the increase in American customs duties are being applied immediately and systematically to all actors involved. In other words, Chinese companies are looking to alternative foreign partners as their American counterparts maintain the status quo.<\/p>\n
But don’t upset Donald Trump \u2013 it’s basically impossible to predict the consequences of trade wars that are only \u201ceasy to win\u201d on paper.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
China is about to win the first leg of the trade war against the US. The latest statistics are actually shocking for the US Government, with the trade deficit with China at its highest historical level. These figures \u2013 that show a Chinese surplus of more than 37 billion dollars for the month of September,…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":19087,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"give_campaign_id":0,"_crdt_document":"","_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"mc4wp_mailchimp_campaign":[],"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"_wpas_customize_per_network":false},"categories":[648941317],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-19090","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-trade-war"],"yoast_head":"\n