{"id":13820,"date":"2018-09-12T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2018-09-11T22:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/michelsanti.blog\/2018\/09\/12\/iran-is-losing-but-it-is-far-from-checkmate\/"},"modified":"2018-10-17T17:43:08","modified_gmt":"2018-10-17T15:43:08","slug":"iran-is-losing-but-it-is-far-from-checkmate","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/oil\/iran-is-losing-but-it-is-far-from-checkmate","title":{"rendered":"Iran is losing but it is far from checkmate"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-large wp-image-7654\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/Iran.jpg?resize=600%2C339&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" width=\"600\" height=\"339\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-bottom: 15.0pt; background: white;\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\" style=\"font-family: 'Arial Narrow',sans-serif; color: #1e1e1e;\">Has the Iranian rial lost more than half of its value against the dollar since the start of this year? It\u2019s routine for this country\u2019s economy that has seen this same thing other times as, since the end of the Iraq war, each Iranian president has effectively been faced with a monetary crisis. From 1989 to 1997, under Rafsanjani, didn\u2019t the official exchange rate of the rial collapse from 72 to 1,755 on the dollar, when on the black market it moved from 1,200 to 4,750? President from 1997 to 2005, Khatami barely did any better as the rial lost 80% of its value under his reign, passing the 9,000 bar to then reach the abyss of 25,000 under Ahmadinejad (2005 to 2013). History is therefore only repeating itself with President Rouhani, who has nevertheless done his best to try to improve the situation since \u2013 contrary to the affirmations of Donald Trump claiming that Iranian inflation is reaching its peak \u2013 it has been around an exceptionally low level of 10%, even into single figures, for the last two years, which is unprecedented since the Islamic Revolution of 1979. This is because the Iranians have been rather used to an inflation rate in the way of 18 to 20% for about 30 years.<\/span><!--more--><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-bottom: 15.0pt; background: white;\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\" style=\"font-family: 'Arial Narrow',sans-serif; color: #1e1e1e;\">Iran\u2019s economy is therefore showing no sign of liquidation since, despite unemployment stagnating at around 12%, the Tehran stock market has jumped 30% in the last three months. Admittedly, it only accounts \u2013 in capitalisation \u2013 for a third of national GDP but is showing no sign of panic after renewed tensions with the US. It is of course due to its oil exports that Iran is most vulnerable since this sector accounts for nearly 14% of the country&#8217;s economic activity. While they had bounced back to more than 2.3 million barrels per day \u2013 the highest since 2008 \u2013 these exports are now the biggest victims of this resurgence, having faltered by 25% since America\u2019s announcement it was withdrawing from the nuclear agreement. The US sanctions have effectively caused the withdrawal of many major buyers of Iranian oil, including the European Union that, gross, has bought 40% less from this country since last April. However, it\u2019s the loss of the South Korean market, making up 60% of Iranian oil exports, that will have the worst ramifications on this sector and also on the country\u2019s economy as whole, since South Korea was not obliged to respect the American oil embargo on Iran during the Obama era.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-bottom: 15.0pt; background: white;\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\" style=\"font-family: 'Arial Narrow',sans-serif; color: #1e1e1e;\">Trump and his administration are gambling on bringing the Iranian economy to its knees and thus forcing the country into an unconditional surrender, or at least one on American terms. Nevertheless, while it\u2019s true that the worst is yet to come for Iran from an economic and financial point of view following the American about-face, this nation is resilient and its economy still seems far from capitulating.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Has the Iranian rial lost more than half of its value against the dollar since the start of this year? It\u2019s routine for this country\u2019s economy that has seen this same thing other times as, since the end of the Iraq war, each Iranian president has effectively been faced with a monetary crisis. From 1989&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":13821,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"give_campaign_id":0,"_crdt_document":"","_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"mc4wp_mailchimp_campaign":[],"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"_wpas_customize_per_network":false,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[648941289,648941318],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-13820","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-oil","category-us-sanction"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Iran is losing but it is far from checkmate - Michel Santi<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/oil\/iran-is-losing-but-it-is-far-from-checkmate\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Iran is losing but it is far from checkmate - Michel Santi\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Has the Iranian rial lost more than half of its value against the dollar since the start of this year? 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It has been circulating for two days on the accounts of Iranian embassies\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Ayatollah&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Ayatollah","link":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/category\/ayatollah"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/Galibaf.png?fit=800%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/Galibaf.png?fit=800%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/Galibaf.png?fit=800%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/Galibaf.png?fit=800%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":27395,"url":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/joulani\/syria-finally-the-return-to-raison-detat","url_meta":{"origin":13820,"position":3},"title":"Syria: Finally, the Return to Raison d&#8217;\u00c9tat","author":"Michel Santi","date":"January 19, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"\u00a0 \u00a0 The Syrian government has just increased customs duties on all imports from Turkey by a staggering 300%. Has Ahmad el Charaa, Damascus' new strongman, drawn inspiration from Donald Trump, who has repeatedly threatened trade partners with sharp tariff hikes since taking office? Not quite. The recently installed Syrian\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;al Charaa&quot;","block_context":{"text":"al Charaa","link":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/category\/al-charaa"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/Syrie.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/Syrie.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/Syrie.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/Syrie.jpg?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":13658,"url":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/isil\/getting-to-know-is-by-their-tweets","url_meta":{"origin":13820,"position":4},"title":"Getting to know IS \u2013 by their tweets","author":"Michel Santi","date":"December 15, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"Islamic State is a State. So let\u2019s not underestimate them, because it is only by getting to know them that we will be able to combat them efficiently. It is by analyzing the thousands of tweets from IS militants and supporters that researchers are now managing to get a better\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;ISIL&quot;","block_context":{"text":"ISIL","link":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/category\/isil"},"img":{"alt_text":"twitter","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/twitter-300x75.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":27320,"url":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/debts\/syria-iran-debt","url_meta":{"origin":13820,"position":5},"title":"These 30 Billion Syria Owes Iran That Will Never Be Paid Back","author":"Michel Santi","date":"January 7, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"\u00a0 Syria\u2019s debt to Iran is estimated at $30 billion. This figure, originating from the Office of the Iranian Presidency, was leaked in August 2023. It represents the price Iran has paid since 2011 to keep Assad in power. The repayment of this massive debt is all the more unlikely\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;debts&quot;","block_context":{"text":"debts","link":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/category\/debts"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/teheran.jpg?fit=900%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/teheran.jpg?fit=900%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/teheran.jpg?fit=900%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/teheran.jpg?fit=900%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]}],"amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13820","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=13820"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13820\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/13821"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=13820"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=13820"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=13820"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}