{"id":13678,"date":"2016-01-30T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2016-01-29T22:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/michelsanti.blog\/2016\/01\/30\/oil-victim-of-deflation\/"},"modified":"2018-10-17T17:43:24","modified_gmt":"2018-10-17T15:43:24","slug":"oil-victim-of-deflation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/growth\/oil-victim-of-deflation","title":{"rendered":"Oil: victim of deflation"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/p%C3%A9trole-300x187-300x187.png?resize=300%2C187&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"p\u00e9trole\" width=\"300\" height=\"187\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-6543\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The collapse in oil prices has not brought with it the happiness that had been counted on, since economic fundamentals have not improved. As for Western consumption, its slight progress is owed more to a further drop in inflation indices than to an increase in salaries and revenues that is worthy of being called so. It is certain that the stagnation of investment and exports for countries with \u201cintegrated\u201d economies are now attracting interrogation since the liquefaction of oil prices could nevertheless have foretold a more spectacular improvement in their respective GDPs\u2026 <!--more--><\/p>\n<p>At the same time, the emerging world is coming undone \u2013 indeed agonising \u2013 and is suffering tumults as bad as during the darkest episodes of 2008 and 2009! It is therefore at this stage becoming indispensable \u2013 at least in terms of intellectual honesty \u2013 to ask the question of all questions: have energy tariffs tumbled following diabolical manipulation on the part of certain producer countries\u2026or because of inexistent global growth? In the latter hypothesis, the drop in oil prices would be the epiphenomenon of an unhealthy economic situation rather than a prelude to the euphoric economic take-off that is hoped for. In other, more cynical terms, oil producer and exporter countries\u2019 suffering is in no way being counterbalanced by the recovery of consumer nations. <\/p>\n<p>This is why the collapse in oil prices \u2013 which has reached abhorrent levels in the space of little more than a year \u2013 can henceforth be analysed from a diametrically opposed angle: this fall is much more a sign of stagnation \u2013 deterioration even \u2013 of our conditions, than of a growth stimulator! In fact, Wells Fargo &#038; Co., Citigroup Inc. And JPMorgan Chase have already had to provision 2 billion dollars for their partner companies\u2019 massive losses, who are active on the gas and oil markets. The moment when these financial institutions \u2013 and others throughout the world \u2013 will be reduced to a painful choice seems close. That is, to take drastic action: continue helping their clients to stay above water, or worry about their own survival\u2026 It is a genuine dilemma that has been complicated terribly by the price collapse, which will force them to sell at $30, though the safeguards to protect them were put in place when the price of a barrel was at $100!   <\/p>\n<p>My own sentiment has now come to a halt, given that this fossil fuel price debacle is in fact an added element that has broken into the deflationary spiral that now reigns supreme over the whole planet. In this light, the US Federal Reserve\u2019s recent decision to raise interest rates is at the very least risky \u2013 even careless. Having deceived us for some time, this oil price liquefaction has therefore not produced the beneficial consequences counted on by economists and dictated by logic. The losses are only just beginning to show in what will certainly remain the most striking episode of 2016.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The collapse in oil prices has not brought with it the happiness that had been counted on, since economic fundamentals have not improved. As for Western consumption, its slight progress is owed more to a further drop in inflation indices than to an increase in salaries and revenues that is worthy of being called so.&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":13679,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"give_campaign_id":0,"_crdt_document":"","_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"mc4wp_mailchimp_campaign":[],"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"_wpas_customize_per_network":false},"categories":[648941296,648941285,648941289],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-13678","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-emerging-markets","category-growth","category-oil"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Oil: victim of deflation - Michel Santi<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/growth\/oil-victim-of-deflation\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Oil: victim of deflation - Michel Santi\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The collapse in oil prices has not brought with it the happiness that had been counted on, since economic fundamentals have not improved. As for Western consumption, its slight progress is owed more to a further drop in inflation indices than to an increase in salaries and revenues that is worthy of being called so.&hellip;\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/growth\/oil-victim-of-deflation\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Michel Santi\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/michel.santi.economiste\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2016-01-29T22:00:00+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2018-10-17T15:43:24+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/p\u00e9trole-300x187.png?fit=300%2C187&ssl=1\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"300\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"187\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Michel Santi\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@michelsanti1\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@michelsanti1\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Michel Santi\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"2 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/michelsanti.fr\\\/en\\\/growth\\\/oil-victim-of-deflation#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/michelsanti.fr\\\/en\\\/growth\\\/oil-victim-of-deflation\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Michel Santi\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/michelsanti.fr\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/ba61ae1376925b43e3d1ddbc1e3eb2a4\"},\"headline\":\"Oil: victim of deflation\",\"datePublished\":\"2016-01-29T22:00:00+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2018-10-17T15:43:24+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/michelsanti.fr\\\/en\\\/growth\\\/oil-victim-of-deflation\"},\"wordCount\":480,\"commentCount\":0,\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/michelsanti.fr\\\/en\\\/growth\\\/oil-victim-of-deflation#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/i0.wp.com\\\/michelsanti.fr\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2018\\\/10\\\/p%C3%A9trole-300x187.png?fit=300%2C187&ssl=1\",\"articleSection\":[\"emerging markets\",\"growth\",\"Oil\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/michelsanti.fr\\\/en\\\/growth\\\/oil-victim-of-deflation#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/michelsanti.fr\\\/en\\\/growth\\\/oil-victim-of-deflation\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/michelsanti.fr\\\/en\\\/growth\\\/oil-victim-of-deflation\",\"name\":\"Oil: victim of deflation - Michel Santi\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/michelsanti.fr\\\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/michelsanti.fr\\\/en\\\/growth\\\/oil-victim-of-deflation#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/michelsanti.fr\\\/en\\\/growth\\\/oil-victim-of-deflation#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/i0.wp.com\\\/michelsanti.fr\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2018\\\/10\\\/p%C3%A9trole-300x187.png?fit=300%2C187&ssl=1\",\"datePublished\":\"2016-01-29T22:00:00+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2018-10-17T15:43:24+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/michelsanti.fr\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/ba61ae1376925b43e3d1ddbc1e3eb2a4\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/michelsanti.fr\\\/en\\\/growth\\\/oil-victim-of-deflation#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/michelsanti.fr\\\/en\\\/growth\\\/oil-victim-of-deflation\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/michelsanti.fr\\\/en\\\/growth\\\/oil-victim-of-deflation#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/i0.wp.com\\\/michelsanti.fr\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2018\\\/10\\\/p%C3%A9trole-300x187.png?fit=300%2C187&ssl=1\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/i0.wp.com\\\/michelsanti.fr\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2018\\\/10\\\/p%C3%A9trole-300x187.png?fit=300%2C187&ssl=1\",\"width\":300,\"height\":187},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/michelsanti.fr\\\/en\\\/growth\\\/oil-victim-of-deflation#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Accueil\",\"item\":\"https:\\\/\\\/michelsanti.fr\\\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Oil: victim of deflation\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/michelsanti.fr\\\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/michelsanti.fr\\\/\",\"name\":\"Michel Santi\",\"description\":\"\\\"It is not because things are difficult that we do not dare. 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At the end of this summer of 2015, OPEC is just a shadow of its former self: simply put, it has been\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Oil&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Oil","link":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/category\/oil"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/AI.jpg?fit=930%2C620&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/AI.jpg?fit=930%2C620&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/AI.jpg?fit=930%2C620&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/AI.jpg?fit=930%2C620&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":20095,"url":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/oil\/oil-what-a-brutal-world","url_meta":{"origin":13678,"position":1},"title":"Oil: what a brutal world!","author":"Michel Santi","date":"March 9, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"\u00a0 We are living in turbulent times and our world can attest, since a few days ago, to the equivalent of a declaration of war taking place on the oil market. Saudi Arabia, that is suffering a fall of more than 20% of its exports to China (its biggest client)\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Oil&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Oil","link":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/category\/oil"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/Poutine-Roi.jpg?fit=480%2C360&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":23025,"url":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/oil-price-cap\/checkmate-for-russia","url_meta":{"origin":13678,"position":2},"title":"Checkmate for Russia?","author":"Michel Santi","date":"September 10, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"\u00a0 The oil price cap decided a few days ago by the G7 is an original, unprecedented measure to be taken very seriously. The member countries of this exclusive club will therefore refuse to buy its oil from Russia at a price that will exceed a certain level which will\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;oil price cap&quot;","block_context":{"text":"oil price cap","link":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/category\/oil-price-cap"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/g-7.webp?fit=1200%2C768&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/g-7.webp?fit=1200%2C768&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/g-7.webp?fit=1200%2C768&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/g-7.webp?fit=1200%2C768&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/g-7.webp?fit=1200%2C768&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":31362,"url":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/sanctions-circumvention\/the-west-has-made-oil-uncontrollable","url_meta":{"origin":13678,"position":3},"title":"The West Has Made Oil Uncontrollable","author":"Michel Santi","date":"March 24, 2026","format":false,"excerpt":"In seeking to cap Russian oil prices, the G7 set in motion a series of dynamics it no longer fully controls: sanctions evasion, reconfigured trade flows, more rigid demand, and financial fragmentation. The oil market has entered a more unstable phase, where traditional regulatory tools are losing effectiveness. A Sophisticated\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Energy sovereignty&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Energy sovereignty","link":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/category\/energy-sovereignty"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/petrole.png?fit=800%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/petrole.png?fit=800%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/petrole.png?fit=800%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/petrole.png?fit=800%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":24817,"url":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/russia\/russia-at-war-with-opec","url_meta":{"origin":13678,"position":4},"title":"Russia at war with OPEC","author":"Michel Santi","date":"June 11, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"It is necessary to conjugate the striking force of OPEC in the past. This group of countries that used to meet in Vienna, deciding unanimously to reduce their production and using their monopoly to drive up oil prices to the detriment of nations and continents eager to consume it, no\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Russia&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Russia","link":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/category\/russia"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/MBS.jpg?fit=600%2C400&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/MBS.jpg?fit=600%2C400&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/MBS.jpg?fit=600%2C400&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":19136,"url":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/oil\/saudi-arabia-is-no-longer-too-big-to-fail","url_meta":{"origin":13678,"position":5},"title":"Saudi Arabia is no longer \u2018too big to fail\u2019","author":"Michel Santi","date":"December 5, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"Is Saudi Arabia still an important partner to the US? The question answers itself, at least partially, with the Middle East having drastically changed since the strategic and fundamental alliance made in 1943 by President Franklin Roosevelt and King Abdulaziz Ibn Saud. It\u2019s now a distant time when FDR boldly,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Oil&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Oil","link":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/category\/oil"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/MBS.jpg?fit=750%2C375&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/MBS.jpg?fit=750%2C375&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/MBS.jpg?fit=750%2C375&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/michelsanti.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/MBS.jpg?fit=750%2C375&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]}],"amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13678","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=13678"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13678\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/13679"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=13678"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=13678"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michelsanti.fr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=13678"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}